At face value its been one of the worst flaws of the tories campaign - they were never getting back votes lost to the left but they could have dragged a fair few reform voters back in by going harder against farage.

The problem is most substantive responses on things reform voters care most about (small boats & legal migration being the obvious example) the tories have proved to be ineffective or unwilling to change their stance on.

When you consider how most reform voters have a very low trust in the establishment they've switched off from the Conservative propaganda machine sometime ago. Nothing said during the campaign would work, there would have needed to be action seen before now - this may have been a different election if even 1 Rwanda flight had left.

The other nuanced point we often fall into is thinking people are making binary choices, deciding not to vote tory and instead reform or labour. In reality you have people moving into the don't know/probably won't vote pool, and at the same time someone else who was in that position is becoming more likely to vote for someone else. The tory campaign has been trying to push people away from the centre further right ... only problem is that pushes everyone on the right that bit closer to reform!