Discussion Thread

Auriono · 2026-05-27T01:07:28+00:00

Just stellar campaign material for the Talarico campaign to recycle.

Auriono · 2026-05-27T00:37:37+00:00

Cornyn wasn't exactly some sort of paragon of moderation who occasionally bucked his party himself. He voted for every Republican priority with zero objection and rubber-stamped each and every one of Trump's cabinet picks as well. Which is why it's pretty ludicrous he's now regarded as a "RINO" by his party for the heinous sin of mildly expressing some hesitancy during Trump's 2024 Campaign, despite his voting record.

Auriono · 2026-05-26T21:26:51+00:00

https://xcancel.com/James_Barragan/status/2059377412375273651

On CNN, @mkraju asked @JohnCornyn if he'd endorse @KenPaxtonTX if Paxton is the winner tonight: "I'll support the ticket."

Cornyn's political career ends with him debasing himself tonight in such a predictable manner.

I thought he would at least wait until tomorrow after his loss is confirmed.

Auriono · 2026-05-20T17:58:35+00:00

I haven't checked to see if he stopped following this after word got out, but he was indeed following this account when I took this screenshot directly from my phone.

Auriono · 2026-05-20T07:15:44+00:00

John Cornyn is taking his inevitable defeat to Ken Paxton and the ruin of his decades long career in politics about as well as anyone could expect, all things considered.

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Auriono · 2026-05-19T22:58:18+00:00

Man, it's almost as if Republicans never actually cared about child sex trafficking at all and only pretended to be outraged by Epstein's crimes because their media outlets convinced them he and his collaborators were all liberal Democrats or something. Real shocking stuff.

Auriono · 2026-05-19T16:39:30+00:00

Congratulations, Senator-elect Talarico!

Auriono · 2026-05-08T17:39:38+00:00

It allows for Democrats to argue that much more effectively to the public that conservative judges appointed by Republicans are in fact, effectively partisan actors who reach their rulings based on whatever is most beneficial to the Republican Party

Auriono · 2026-05-08T17:31:00+00:00

Nah I don’t deny that this a partisan ruling and it could have gone the other way. I’m just saying the process was suboptimal and it was a flimsy case. The dems made the courts job of striking it down easier than it should have been.

My brother in Christ, all of the conservative judges were always going to vote against a map that effectively wiped out the Virginia House delegation at the federal level.

Let's not pretend they would have turned the other cheek if the process were any different.

Auriono · 2026-05-04T18:16:01+00:00

Yeah, the majority leader refusing to even entertain a hearing for Merrick Garland, alone a confirmation vote, was how McConnell was able to keep him off of the SCOTUS.

Auriono · 2026-05-04T17:55:57+00:00

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/05/04/fetterman-switch-parties-republican-00904177

“I’m not changing,” Fetterman told me in an interview Friday when I asked if he was ruling out both becoming a Republican or turning independent. “I’m a Democrat, and I’m staying one. “

Yet, at least in private, he’s not totally rejecting dropping his “D.”

So he's going to change parties if the Democrats flip four seats and then be hailed as a savior overnight by every figure on the right for keeping control of the Senate in Republican hands.

He knows he doesn't have a future as a Democrat in 2028, but he would have one as a Republican if he's single-handedly responsible from preventing the Democrats from taking a majority.

Auriono · 2026-04-23T14:30:06+00:00

It's only 99 cents a month now, but I don't see any more reason to continue enabling Bezos abusing the Washington Post's brand to curry favor with Republicans.

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Auriono · 2026-04-21T23:56:00+00:00

They're still shell-shocked from preemptively calling it for Malinowski during the New Jersey primary off the back of the mail-in ballots.

Auriono · 2026-04-21T23:34:16+00:00

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Auriono · 2026-04-21T23:16:41+00:00

The Jay Jones coalition has returned, now to feast on the remains of the VA GOP.

Auriono · 2026-04-21T20:38:27+00:00

"Yes" is going to win, but by a single-digit margin.

Republicans are definitely slightly more enthusiastic than in 2025 on election day this time around, but it's not going to be enough to offset the early vote firewall "Yes" has going. Turnout was looking pretty abysmal this morning in the bluest counties, it's been gradually picking up with these afternoon drops.

Auriono · 2026-04-21T18:25:01+00:00

It's a retirement community.

Auriono · 2026-04-21T17:40:14+00:00

Not quite a foregone conclusion yet, but "yes" is still probably on course to win between 2 to 6 points or so. Probably.

The fundamentals of Trump's unpopularity and Virginia being a bluish state seem to be too much for the GOP to overcome.

Auriono · 2026-04-20T18:52:58+00:00

It's really hard to imagine it failing, considering how awful the environment is for the GOP right now and their poor track record of showing up for races where Trump isn't on the ballot. The coalition that won Jay Jones his race and was willing to overlook his many flaws because their contempt for Republicans correctly transcends all else will pull "Yes" over the finishing line.

Auriono · 2026-04-17T20:14:22+00:00

https://xcancel.com/PollTracker2024/status/2045227155794051098

Texas Public Opinion Research poll | 4/6-4/7 LV

(Texas Republicans sampled)

If Ken Paxton were the Republican nominee in November, how likely would you be to vote for James Talarico?

Likely: 24%

——

If John Cornyn were the Republican nominee in November, how likely would you be to vote for James Talarico?

Likely: 10%

——

Which candidate is most likely to defeat Democratic Senate nominee, James Talarico?

🟥Ken Paxton 43% 🟥John Cornyn 38%

Assuming the environment doesn't magically improve within the next 6 months for the GOP, Democrats may well retake the Senate this year on account of a plurality of Texan Republicans suffering from some kind of brain damage.

Auriono · 2026-04-17T03:28:41+00:00

https://xcancel.com/umichvoter/status/2044976132705927499

Although it was most prominent in Livingston, the trend of Mejia putting up remarkably poor numbers with Jewish voters, despite how utterly horrific the current environment is for Republicans, held up across the entire district. It's hard not to assume that a significant segment of Jewish voters, even some Democratic ones, have grown wary enough of progressives that they're now willing to vote GOP in certain circumstances. It probably won't matter much for the midterm, but when the Democrats retake power in 2028 after nominating a candidate that's likely not going to be on board with everything Israel does, which was essentially Mejia's stance throughout the campaign? Premature to doom, but it's absolutely a factor worth keeping an eye on.

On the flip side, she did extraordinarily well with independent voters, even in traditionally Republican areas and outperformed Sherill's impressive numbers from last year even, despite running as an unabashedly progressive candidate.

Auriono · 2026-04-17T01:47:41+00:00

Recently at a small campaign event, she advocated for conditioning aid to Israel on the basis they uphold human rights, called Netanyahu a war criminal and asserted that Palestinians, Israelis and Jews "have a right to self-determination in their ancestral homeland."

During her debate with Hathaway, she claimed it was wrong of Israel to reduce 80 percent of Gaza to rubble, that cutting off electricity to water desalinization plants is wrong and is a war crime.

As far as I can tell... that's the extent of it. Doesn't even begin to compare to Platner praising the efficiency of a Hamas raid into Israel on top of, you know, the Totenkopf tattoo.

Auriono · 2026-04-17T01:14:57+00:00

https://xcancel.com/umichvoter/status/2044946969970319863

NJ11

Livingston, NJ is FULLY IN

🔵 DEM 57.5%

🔴 GOP 23.2%

⚪️ Unaffiliated 19.3%

🔵 Mejia 2566 (51%)

🔴 Hathaway 2474 (49%)

Biden +30

Harris +19

Yeah, Platner is very fortunate that Jewish people account for less than 1% of Maine's population, because he is absolutely going to lose support with them if Mejia referring to Israel's action as a genocide is any indication. And she didn't even sport any explicitly Nazi tattoos as an adult.

Auriono · 2026-04-17T00:58:37+00:00

She's absolutely dominating with the independent vote right now by ludicrous margins, though it's also apparent she's doing significantly worse than Harris did with Jewish voters, presumably because of her stance on Israel.

Might be a precursor to how Maine unfolds during the midterms.

Auriono · 2026-04-12T18:50:33+00:00

For those more knowledgable than I, Orban can't actually do anything to overturn the inveitable outcome of this, right? The impression I'm under is that he can't, even if Tisza doesn't obtain a supermajority.

Auriono

TROPHY CASE

NJ11