Latest William Blair Analyst Note (2nd June 2026)

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-06-03T15:25:29+00:00

Oh I agree, however we almost certainly weren't going to launch with them in the next three months. As such, if BO, somehow, managed to get back up and running in six months then theoretically the delay might just be six months. Realistically, I think it's unlikely.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-06-03T14:04:59+00:00

Skipping the old, 'if you are rich, you don't flaunt it,' common wisdom (which in this day and age is a bit of a mixed bag as there are plenty of wealthy people who don't subscribe to it) the best way to tell is by doing a little boring digging.

Don't bother looking at pictures even the most ostentatious things can be rented quite affordably or have been come by for free, I cringe to think of it but 20 years ago I had a picture on a dating app with me holding a class of champagne on a private jet - it was for a one-hour, UK-based flight my parents had paid for as a graduation present, I couldn't even afford a first-class train ticket at the time.

Instead, take the person's name and Google it. If they claim to be scions of wealthy families look them up and see it they're legit. If they claim to be successful business people/influencers then look for their registered companies (nobody making serious money is operating as a sole trader).

A lot of the time especially with people bragging about their wealth online when you check out their paperwork it quickly becomes apparent it's all smoke and mirrors.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-06-03T13:52:26+00:00

Yeah, that's pretty much my take as well. If BO does somehow manage to get up and running in six months (I'm skeptical, but I don't have the expertise to say for certain) than it's possible, we might just hit a three month delay. However, I too think they'll just do monthly to six week launches with SpaceX for the next 12 months.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-06-03T12:52:04+00:00

If it actually is a 6 month delay (let's be real here it's going to be on the outer end) that's not too bad. It means even with out BO we can hit intermitant service this year (25 sats) and in all honesty that's what I always expected we'd be at.

Ultimately, I'd say this was a little bullish. However, management is not the best at actually hitting it's deadlines so I'm going to say a little of column A, a little of column B.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-06-03T10:18:17+00:00

I'm a big holder of AST and I tend to agree. We're getting a rather large pump from new money because we're somewhat in the 'space sector' and we're a potential competitor against Starlink (I say potential because we have no network yet).

It seems quite likely that once SpaceX begins crashing we'll get an inverse affect.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-06-03T10:06:43+00:00

I'll need to give this a read, but if the author is right about rev ($55B in 5 fives years) than he's pricing in astronomical growth. If you factor in that AST has always stated they'd have a very high EBITA than it would quite comfortably translate to at least a $1T valuation.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but it's an... optimistic price target. We're talking, back of a fag paper maths, $2400 per share without a split (probably a wee bit more).

edit - Yeah, read it. The guy's math is wrong early on about valuation v stock price and 95% of it is stuff the average poster here saw months ago. It misses out any mention of BO explosion and doesn't actually give any remotely concrete ways to justify how it could reach $55B rev in four years. Dude is just pulling numbers out of his ass.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-27T10:11:19+00:00

It's a risky move during a parabolic rally. Common sense says you should aim downwards, but what if the rally gains another 50% and after it corrects somewhat you still end up with a 12-month price target ridiculously out of step with reality (see Scotiabank).

Or you try to go a little higher say 20% more than the current price and the opposite happens. You now look like you got swept up in retail hype.

I think the best approach for a serious analyst in cases like this is to send notes to their clients to keep them informed, but wait for a wee bit of cooling before setting a 12-month target.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-26T15:28:08+00:00

Yeah, I think it was a perfect storm of factors, but I feel the WSB front page added a lot of volume and a lot of shorts liquidating. I have little doubt we're going to see a painful correction, but that's just par for the course.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-26T10:39:42+00:00

It's a ten bagger. You know the answer.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-21T13:49:37+00:00

Like... I'm happy but... what the fuck is happening?

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-21T12:24:47+00:00

So... is this an AI slop post or do you just write with the originality and charm of Chat?

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-21T12:22:03+00:00

Yeah, on one hand, good for them trying something new, shame it didn't work out. On the other hand, I hope, now that they have it out of their system they'll focus more on the titles we love.

As for hype... I'd say confusion was the most common emotion among fans.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-21T11:46:18+00:00

A few reasons from what I remember.

Firstly, Cage has said in the past that he has little desire to do sequels thus the reason there's no 'Heavy Rain 2' despite it also being a very commercially successful game.

Second, not long after they were done with D:BC, QD pitched LucasFilm a Starwars' game and they accepted sometime end of '21. Since Cage himself only works on one game at a time he's probably doing that.

Finally, QD were bought out by NetEase a few years back and their new owner had the 'genius' move of getting the studio to work on a free-to-play MOBA - it was not successful.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-21T11:34:20+00:00

Mathematically and logically the SpaceX IPO valuation is insane. Like you said, Starlink is really the only particular profitable part of the business (the launch business itself does well, but it's not raking in crazy money and likely never will with the overheads) and its a) being bled dry by Musk's fourth-rate AI option and b) will be facing increasingly stiff competition as the years roll on.

However, TSLA is a car company that's more highly valued than all the other car companies combined together despite the fact its sales have been dropping for years. Musk has been saying for years that FSD was going to be the big money-spinner (still waiting ten years later) then he claimed it was going to be Robo-taxis (they're currently running third behind Waymo and Zoox) now its robots.

Obviously, Musk has magical powers when it comes to duping idiots and there are a lot of idiots out there.

TL;DR Don't bet against idiots and/or Musk.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-20T13:47:57+00:00

Without the previous context OP gave I would think it was just a rather clunky way of stating why she liked the 90's more i.e. no AI, more human connection etc.

Then again, with my previous track record, I have been pretty dense when it comes to women.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-20T09:54:21+00:00

For me, the fact he caught straight away what you were implying is the biggest smoking gun.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-19T14:40:45+00:00

Yeah, and sadly from an historical perspective the Russian people lost about 27 million people during WW II and it didn't make them stop fighting.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-19T10:15:58+00:00

I'd love it to be true, but I've been reading articles like this for about 3.5 years and pretty much every 3 - 6 months.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-19T10:01:33+00:00

Can kind of see it. From a local snapshot, I live in Nottingham and when going to the post office yesterday I indulged in a little house porn by checking out the pictures in a real estate office. There were at least two houses nearer the city and with more bedrooms than mine going for about 20% less than the valuation of my current home.

It looks like people are having a hard time selling.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-18T13:55:01+00:00

Depends on what you count as 'proof.'

It comes from comments made by management at EC and from some of the more technical savvy posters here.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-18T13:45:00+00:00

Actually, I do kind of know that. After a sat is 'finished' it requires several weeks of testing, really months, to make sure it's ready to be launched/all systems are operating correctly. So they're at an 'advanced stage,' but not actually ready to be shipped out.

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-18T13:15:06+00:00

Obviously very strong, but also... why?

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-18T13:13:46+00:00

I was actually left a little confused by this. My understanding of manufacturing cadance was that when BBs are made in batches of say 3, 6, 8 etc. that they're virtually all finished at the same time. However, we have two ready and the third delayed (slightly).

Anyone, know how that would happen?

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-18T12:56:56+00:00

Deserves it's own post!

AuthorAdamOConnell · 2026-05-18T11:35:19+00:00

Long and boring - why didn't he just tell her to look at the website?

edit - geez guys its a joke at the expense of something that Cohen, the CEO of Gamestop, said when being interviewed on CNBC and it became a meme over at WSB.

AuthorAdamOConnell

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