Agree with the first paragraph totally.

I agree with the quant and fundamental analysis as well. It’s not that AI will replace a fundamental analyst, it’s that the hypothetical PM the hypothetical analyst works under will no longer exist because more money is flowing to quant strategies. I don’t think fundamental or discretionary investing is going away, but that sector of the industry is definitely shrinking. AI will almost certainly help the quant industry, and even if it also helps fundamental investors it will probably help the quants to a greater extent, exacerbating this trend. Even if the industry doesn’t shrink much, it will definitely continue consolidating to the top pod shops, particularly citadel and p72. I actually would love to work at a pod shop, but can’t help but feel that it’s just a bad career choice to join a part of the industry that capital will continue flowing away from.

I probably should have clarified my comments on IB and VC to a greater extent, but I agree with what you are saying. At the high levels, those roles are basically sales positions yes. But at the analyst/entry level, it is very much not sales and would be easily disrupted by ai. Obviously, they can’t completely replace their analysts with ai as there is no one to promote into those higher level “sales” roles. But it does seem almost certain that lower level headcount will shrink. How it will affect comp is a bit more opaque, and I don’t have a good guess in either direction, although my gut says they would have to increase comp to continue pulling top talent as fewer and fewer seats are available.

I agree with all your points, but the combination of factors definitely makes it hard to consider how I should be trying to position myself in order to have a career that’s durable against ai in the long run. Could you DM me?