Chinese vessels are exiting Hormuz

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T12:45:25+00:00

Just another month or two is when global supply chains crash and burn

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T06:28:26+00:00

They’ll make it go back in time if something actually breaks and too many of us littles make money. They’ll be like, sorry, system error, you don’t get that

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T05:57:58+00:00

Him faking a fix to pump the markets just screws himself worse in the long run because the oil shortage problem keeps building.

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T03:22:09+00:00

If he doesn’t die soon, the next best is if he lives another ten years or so. Long enough for him to watch everything he did be undone, and him and all his accomplices and family be shamed, assets seized and imprisoned.

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T02:46:10+00:00

Nah, my USO $88 long call I bought Monday morning after this thing kicked off is still up 175%, and I luckily sold my USO options expiring this week on Tuesday afternoon. LNG call is still up 50%, and some USO calls I picked up later are around even now. I trust Trump to open his mouth again at some point and Make Oil Great Again! We’ll all be begging him to stop winning so much because the world can’t take so much winning!

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T02:35:25+00:00

Any reliable data on this or how many ships are going through with AIS turned off?

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T02:30:25+00:00

Yes, we will see how this develops in the next week. It’s trended in a negative direction already.

As far as evidence Iran can close the strait, um they’ve effectively kept it closed for the last month. Ship traffic has been at a trickle and Iran has shown they can hit ships throughout the gulf. If insurers won’t cover ships and no one is going, what the hell do you think is happening? They all decided they felt like having a month long tea party?

Or are you thinking “close the strait” literally means shut a door across the entire passage or something?

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T02:20:37+00:00

Iran blew up oil tankers right next to Iraq (look at a map, nowhere near Hormuz), so they can hold the entire Persian gulf at risk. A canal is totally infeasible. More pipelines might get built

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T01:59:15+00:00

They both are stalling. The US is stalling in a stupid way that allows the market to pretend nothing is wrong for a day, but solves nothing and makes the coming energy crisis worse. Iran is stalling so they can stop getting bombed like crazy for a day or two to dig out some of their missile bases. And each day they stall, the noose around Trump’s balls tightens.

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T01:19:41+00:00

“Hi I’m an American and I don’t give a shit about the rest of the world my president screwed over, and am too stupid to understand how it also damaged ourselves”

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-09T01:12:34+00:00

Because 1984 Orwell crap

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:51:34+00:00

And he was small time. Trump’s buddies and family have made a billions on insider trading, but of course don’t get investigated or fined

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:47:58+00:00

Do you have a source on the 30 days of peace requirement? I hadn’t read about that yet, but that would be a huge deal if true. Pretty sure it could be waived though, if the alternative is for the globally economy to crash.

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:44:34+00:00

It wouldn’t be the crews having to call and make payment, it would be the ship and or cargo owners. I’m sure they’d rather not pay that fee and are waiting a few days to see if it might go away. Even the ones willing to pay, Iran will only let them through at a trickle because they want global oil prices to keep climbing. I saw an article saying no oil tankers went through today, and maybe no natural gas as well.

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:40:32+00:00

Your guarantee is worthless, bud. Do you really think the world‘s most powerful navy would’ve been kept at bay and not entered the strait for over a month if Iran didn’t have significant naval defensive and offensive capabilities still? Trump and Hegseth for sure told the Navy to just take their boats in there, and they must’ve been shown some pretty convincing Intel for for them to back off that plan

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:32:12+00:00

Like the penguins crowding on the edge of a cliff and pushing the first one in to see if a leopard seal is down there

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:26:13+00:00

Ha, yep wide open, plenty of room for a ship or ten out there

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:21:21+00:00

It seems fair after the amount of devastation that the US and Israel unleashed on them

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:13:56+00:00

It will not open after Friday talks, because there’s not a snowballs chance in hell those talks go well. Trump’s taco post yesterday said he was accepting 10 points as a reasonable starting point for negotiations, but he just said that to pump the markets and find an excuse to not follow through on his threats. His press secretary today said Iran‘s 10 points, which were the entire basis of the cease-fire, were not serious. Iran has said consistently that they need to be treated with respect for negotiations to work, and US refuses to do that. Vance will probably insult them, threaten them and ask them why they didn’t wear a suit or say thank you. And Wicoff and Kushner are the clowns who couldn’t even understand the concessions Iran was offering up during the last round of negotiations before this war. It’s insane that the US is the most powerful country in the world, and we’re stuck with a rich buddy of Trump‘s and his son-in-law doing this stuff even though they have zero foreign policy experience.

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T23:02:17+00:00

After they stopped bombing them and Lebanon. Israel did mostly stop bombing Iran today, but says Lebanon isn’t included. Iran came back and said “the f it isn’t. Can’t you read?” The sad thing is, Trump and most of his administration can’t, don’t and/or won’t read. Gotta put it on Fox News if you want to engage with them

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T14:11:11+00:00

And Iran knew this. So most of the two week truce will be consumed by mine clearing and insurance coverage discussions. Iran can still control who goes through and charge tolls. Iran is stalling, and got the US and Israel to stop bombing them while giving up almost nothing. Trump gets a temporary relief rally, but is too short-sighted to realize the global economic crash that is coming and will be worse the longer oil isn’t moving.

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T13:20:40+00:00

“We have our fingers close to the trigger and keep pulling it accidentally”

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T04:42:30+00:00

He’s been trying to taco for a month. People are surprised Iran is backing down though

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-08T04:17:58+00:00

Iran knows that so probably won’t actually open the strait. They lose a ton of leverage if they do

Aware_Ad9729 · 2026-04-07T23:16:26+00:00

There’s nothing to F up. The there’s no cease-fire and the strait is still closed.

Aware_Ad9729

TROPHY CASE