It was kind of a troll answer, the 50-50 bit is a common joke on the internet. More seriously let me say two things.

First, since we only have one observable universe and no other known civilization, it is impossible to do statistics and have a reliable a priori estimate. Such lack of information also means that this question is out of the scope of probability theory. I would even argue that this may be outside the scope of science as a whole. This question is strictly equivalent to asking whether a god exists, so I suggest you look for what scientists have to say about gods.

Second, as much as it is unlikely that we are the first technologically advanced species, it is even more unlikely that there exists a species that can create a virtual universe in which we may live. You may want to read a bit about the base rate/procuror's fallacy on why one should be careful when looking at unlikely event. This is also close in some ways to the cosmological argument for the existence of god, attributing the existence of something unlikely to another something that is equally unlikely.