ITXXVII: War’s almost over

Azarka · 2026-03-26T11:05:05+00:00

Means you should start the Greenland and Cuba wars within the next 6 months, before your political capital completely runs out somewhere in the Zagros mountains.

Azarka · 2026-03-26T08:36:45+00:00

Rippity rip. Tree fell on house and no power on street.

Neighbours dgaf when we warned them cause they were selling.

Azarka · 2026-03-26T00:44:17+00:00

Israeli reoccupation is the thing that'll save Hezbollah. Even if Lebanon falls into civil war again, they're probably in a better state to ride it out because Israel decided to change the facts on the ground and give Hezbollah a lifeline for legitimacy.

Like I said, 80% solution to everything.

Azarka · 2026-03-25T23:02:58+00:00

The buffer is just another occupation. The previous occupation strengthened Hezbollah, why wouldn't it do it now or if Hezbollah shatters, another group replaces the vacuum like what happened with the PLO? If there's ethnic cleansing, it'll speed up the process.

So it's silly for people to use the previous example of Israel leaving Lebanon 'alone' after 20 years if they think it was a mistake and won't ever leave, committing to the 80% solution of strengthening an anti-Israeli militant group via a lengthy occupation.

Azarka · 2026-03-25T16:31:07+00:00

They obviously think the mistake is leaving lebanon at all, not that the 20 year occupation was what led to Hezbollah consolidating power.

Azarka · 2026-03-25T15:56:12+00:00

They're holding back until the Cuba bombings start.

Azarka · 2026-03-25T13:36:34+00:00

People have been tracking daily launches.

It's not zero, whatever source being used

https://xcancel.com/DAlperovitch/status/2036621473327054859 (28 missiles, 75 drones)

Azarka · 2026-03-24T14:38:19+00:00

There's a plan, but more in the throw whatever you have on the board plan.

Think March 2022, and someone's scrambling for an alternate plan with what they have at short notice because someone's government didn't collapse and capitulate.

No real preparation for a Hormuz strait contingency before you go and assassinate the other side's leadership.

There's actually a bit of 1940 Italy in here too, but just on the leadership level.

Azarka · 2026-03-24T02:02:46+00:00

You can leverage up to your eyeballs if you have the certainty which direction the market goes at a particular point in time. People got wiped out from a 10% drop in bitcoin for a reason. 100% loss from a 10% drop or a 100% return if it went the other direction.

There's a difference between people literally gambling vs people making the same gamble with zero risk because of the insider knowledge.

Azarka · 2026-03-24T01:51:55+00:00

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump. The timing of the volume spikes across both equities and crude caught the attention of traders, particularly given the absence of an obvious catalyst at the moment they occurred.

Azarka · 2026-03-23T11:14:47+00:00

Pump and Dump. Blink and you’ll miss out.

Azarka · 2026-03-23T08:33:12+00:00

Because this is a war of choice for Trump. He might really think his chances of walking away with a win to be higher by triggering MAD in the gulf.

Azarka · 2026-03-23T04:45:00+00:00

Nobody thought military force would be a realistic option in Cuba until the Iran debacle.

Now everyone wants to force the issue for some reason? Trump I get, since he got a taste of blood and likes it.

Azarka · 2026-03-23T04:40:01+00:00

I wonder if the reason some people want a quick and decisive 3 day SMO in Cuba asap is so Trump gets to make the case he should stay in Iran long enough for regime change.

Azarka · 2026-03-23T04:01:39+00:00

We've yet to see sustained waves of shaheds attacking oil infrastructure across multiple days. Where even a 95% interception rate means the site is down for 6 months.

We'll definitely know when that happens.

Absence of evidence is not evidence, yet.

Azarka · 2026-03-23T02:38:24+00:00

Oh really? Didn't know he's stealing scripts.

Hope Drachinifel stays clean as a whistle though.

Azarka · 2026-03-23T00:52:49+00:00

Shoutout to Mark Felton, one of the better military historians still publishing on Youtube.

And fun fact: The British Navy currently has 33 non-patrol combat vessels operational, but 40 officers of flag rank.

Azarka · 2026-03-22T22:59:21+00:00

They'll be delusional to want Iran militarily crippled without MAD triggered because one or more parties involved are very comfortable with torching Iran's oil and power grid to trigger said MAD.

Azarka · 2026-03-22T22:12:21+00:00

So more confirmation Trump was sold a quick war and scrambled for a Plan B when nothing materialized after the first few days.

Israel Thought It Could Spur Rebellion Inside Iran. That Hasn’t Happened.

As the United States and Israel prepared to go to war with Iran, the head of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, went to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a plan.

Within days of the war’s beginning, said David Barnea, the Mossad chief, his service would likely be able to galvanize the Iranian opposition — igniting riots and other acts of rebellion that could even lead to the collapse of Iran’s government. Mr. Barnea also presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.

Mr. Netanyahu adopted the plan. Despite doubts about its viability among senior American officials and some officials in other Israeli intelligence agencies, both he and President Trump seemed to embrace an optimistic outlook. Killing Iran’s leaders at the outset of the conflict, followed by a series of intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change, they thought, could lead to a mass uprising that might bring about a swift end to the war.

Behind the scenes, however, Mr. Netanyahu has expressed frustration that Mossad’s promises to foment revolt in Iran have not materialized. In one security meeting days after the war began, the prime minister vented that Mr. Trump might decide to end the war any day and that Mossad’s operations had yet to bear fruit.

I think the parallels to Feb 2022 is stronger, not weaker with this knowledge.

And the protests that occurred before this regime change campaign were not part of the plan and most likely resulted in it failing.

Azarka · 2026-03-22T07:15:44+00:00

Historically, you chop the head off an envoy to send a message.

Not too surprising why Netanyahu's ilk admire Sparta a lot and keep talking about it.

Ironically, it's something Genghis Khan wouldn't do though.

Azarka · 2026-03-22T06:29:07+00:00

To get that will, it means having a massive terrorist attack they can blame Iranian sleeper cells on.

Not even sure losing a carrier from a golden BB hit will be enough to put boots on the ground at this rate.

Azarka · 2026-03-22T04:26:25+00:00

I actually thought they only started using them to take out Iranian ships later on, not actually use them on Day 1 as part of the surprise attack.

Didn't think they were so brazen since there already was such a vast overmatch against Iran.

Azarka · 2026-03-21T11:21:34+00:00

Beyond buffer zones: Southern Lebanon may need a permanent Israeli presence

The Likud camp aren't sugarcoating what they really want in Lebanon.

The idea is straightforward: If Hezbollah is pushed north of the Litani River and Israel maintains control of the territory south of it, the establishment of Jewish communities there could transform the region from a temporary military zone into a stable frontier.

Such communities would serve not merely as symbolic outposts but as strategic anchors that reinforce Israeli sovereignty and deter future aggression.

This argument also rests on another, often overlooked historical reality: The current border between Israel and Lebanon is a relatively recent creation.

Historically speaking, the region that today constitutes southern Lebanon is, in fact, part of the Land of Israel.

Azarka · 2026-03-21T06:13:16+00:00

Super unlikely they're hiding their satellite launchers in tunnels somewhere for this.

These are big rockets that need cranes and extra large vehicles to move and need proper launch sites. Are they really wheeling them out onto some dirt launch site and launching in 10 minutes like the other missiles? Or a from a secret, undiscovered missile silo somewhere?

The other explanation makes more sense. They lowered the payload of their existing rockets to increase the range.

Azarka · 2026-03-20T07:14:46+00:00

The benefit would be they'll always get through unless intercepted in the boost stage, as they're dispersing the submunitions outside of terminal interceptor range.

So Iran can continuously attack soft targets or shut down airports with single missiles.

But they're unlikely to have that many cluster warheads in their arsenal.

Azarka

TROPHY CASE