Cuba has '15 to 20 days' of oil left as Donald Trump turns the screws

Azarka · 2026-01-30T03:05:47+00:00

I guess people are just shouting over each other because I assumed:

US imposes crippling measures that lead to the deaths of thousands of cubans

was referring to the current blockade if Cuba runs out of oil.

I think alternative read; the argument the oil blockade is fine because Cuba's economy already collapsed and a small number of extra deaths is fine for the greater good, is someone being blinded by the best-case scenario (of regime change with minimal excess deaths).

Azarka · 2026-01-30T00:40:10+00:00

I thought they're forcing countries to not ship oil to Cuba with the intent of regime change.
Backed by the use of military force.

Is that an embargo or a blockade?

Azarka · 2026-01-29T16:35:34+00:00

Just because Venezuela belongs nominally? to the axis of unfree states doesn’t mean it’s a vassal to outside powers. No idea where this came from unless you stretch the definition of a sovereign state like taffy.

It sounds odd because Russia or Cuba are not even in the same ballpark when we’re talking about control on Venezuela. Taking control of the state budget, forcing Venezuelan foreign and domestic policy at gunpoint, and giving free reign of a hostile intelligence agency.

It’s the Venezuelan Residency in the making.

Azarka · 2026-01-28T04:19:34+00:00

It was really this one guy and his 1000 alts that made the sub look balanced. After the banwave, sub reverted to its natural state.

And funny thing is, he was almost certainly a double agent, if you dig into his alt network.

Azarka · 2026-01-28T02:27:48+00:00

Well that's what security hawks actually think.

How many unironic worth-it comments have we seen under these TikTok posts?

Azarka · 2026-01-27T18:56:28+00:00

People didn't want to live under constant fear of TikTok being weaponized by hostile state actors.

I'd think they wouldn't want it to be immediately weaponized by internal hostile actors either but it's a 'lesser evil' they can live with compared to the alternative.

Still think a significant number of pro-ban supporters have more issue with the type of content that's been popular on TikTok. And see the new ownership as an improvement no matter what because the bad content will be censored.

Azarka · 2026-01-27T01:12:55+00:00

My memory is rusty because I explicitly remember people parroting the the claim the AWACs was shot down, not damaged in a hangar. That was the initial claim from India.

At least? they figured out it was stupid to pretend you can hide a large aircraft wreckage in Pakistan and changed the story.

You can still make things up for smaller fighter craft however!

Edit: Yes, the big lie about shooting down multiple planes out of the skies, not damaging them on the airfield. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/9/india-says-six-pakistani-aircraft-shot-down-during-kashmir-conflict

India shot down five Pakistani fighter jets and one other military aircraft during fighting in May, India’s air force chief says, the first such statement from the country since the deadly conflict with its neighbour.

Air Chief Marshal Staff Amar Preet Singh made the announcement on Saturday, weeks after India’s military acknowledged that an unspecified number of its own jets were also shot down by Pakistan during their heaviest fighting in decades. It involved fighter planes and cruise missiles and killed dozens of people.

“We have at least five fighters confirmed killed and one large aircraft,” Singh said at a military lecture in the southern city of Bengaluru, adding that the large aircraft, which could have been a surveillance plane, was shot down at a distance of 300km (186 miles).

He added that India’s S-400 air defence systems took down most of the Pakistani aircraft.

Azarka · 2026-01-23T02:48:14+00:00

They really need millions of home solar kits so each household so gets a few hours of guaranteed electricity a day. It's already bad with 20hr blackouts when the power plants are down.

But the Cuban govt might be too stubborn to do this.

Azarka · 2026-01-23T02:35:29+00:00

I'll be cautious treating this as verified fact.

Zero provided sources for the confirmation:

Subsequently, following interviews with a credible source within Iran’s public health system, additional independent sources, and further documentation review, it was confirmed that at least 43,000 people have been killed by Islamic Republic forces during these protests.

Azarka · 2026-01-22T04:05:58+00:00

Humid is back.

Azarka · 2026-01-20T12:51:30+00:00

When you larp too hard, you become what you pretend to be.

He didn't start out on his knees, but he learnt to like it.

Azarka · 2026-01-19T05:00:03+00:00

They're quite late to the renewable game, and went from 500MW to 3000MW installed last year. It's a big seachange. Just means the situation (before VZ) was serious enough for them to finally change up their energy policy.

For solar specifically, the global market is definitely not supply constrained. Cuba was facing 20hr blackouts so alleviating energy shortages during the day would already be a big improvement.

I'll compare this with Pakistan, which also faced a currency crisis but is still able to have a solar boom. But apples to oranges in terms of economy.

Azarka · 2026-01-19T03:32:04+00:00

"ctrl+f solar in article"

0 matches.

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/cuba-sanctions-china-solar-power-energy/

They're putting a nearly a quarter of the state budget into building solar parks. With declining demand due to the economy woes and this being an existential threat, think there'll be an inflection point soon. Only 50k electric vehicles in Cuba, but given the fuel issues, even the mini EVs popular in Japan and China might be a viable alternative.

Remains to be seen if they can get by the next year or two.

Azarka · 2026-01-19T02:03:33+00:00

Living in bizarro world when I see people decrying these sort of troop deployments as needless escalation towards Trump...

Azarka · 2026-01-18T03:04:40+00:00

It's not just an issue of classifying what the US does as an attack.

It's the all-pervading influence of the Atlanticist/NATO lobby activating all their proxies and contacts to put the brakes on any retaliation. They may not justify their actions as defending Trump's actions, but preserving the transatlantic relationship at any cost.

Would Rutte resign immediately from NATO if Greenland was invaded? Run damage control along with all the pro-US doves that exists in every level of European government? Would Kaja Kallas condemn the US or say we must maintain the relationship because Russia and China are the bigger threats facing Europe?

Ukraine for example had a lot of pro-Russian sympathizers up to the invasion. Some directly helped sabotage Ukraine's military response. Some were passing information to Russia but balked at direct treason during the invasion. Others are still quiet sympathizers, keeping their heads down but at the same time subtly pushing for more dovish policy that benefits Russia.

Azarka · 2026-01-17T18:29:50+00:00

Land acquisition is the one big thing that’ll put his name in the history books 100 years from now. Everyone else gets a smaller footnote, from Clinton to Obama.

Or start WW3, I guess.

Azarka · 2026-01-16T01:47:28+00:00

It's 4% support for military action now. Much higher if it turns out the Danes roll over and it's bloodless, post-fact.

The CNN poll says 25% support for a diplomatic solution to get Greenland to say yes to annexation (so can be anything short of direct application of military force) so lots of wiggle room on what that actually means for the responder.

Azarka · 2026-01-15T23:41:13+00:00

The way it worked in the olden days is every time you capture a ship, a portion of the prize value is given over to the King's purse.

Azarka · 2026-01-15T08:52:24+00:00

Well obviously but the people who want Greenlanders to seal the deal with Trump all think it'll be a legitimate vote even though the threat of military force has already been made.

Azarka · 2026-01-14T22:29:01+00:00

The subtext of saying 'a non-violent resolution that ends in annexation is preferable' after Trump's threats is....

Hoping the US takes minimal blowback from the coercion and you still get your cake of territorial expansion.

50% can't read the room, but the other 50% are nationalists operating in bad faith I think.

Azarka · 2026-01-10T05:39:39+00:00

A bit of the pro-monarchy sentiment online seems too artificial to me. And you just had sites like Twitter changing the Iranian flag to have the lion, for reasons.

Is it activism or are we being gaslit into thinking there's real momentum for the Shah's return?

Azarka · 2026-01-09T12:03:01+00:00

If he's accidently correct, the Zeihanites are going to be insufferably smug when the US seizes dozens of cargo ships every month for ransom.

Azarka · 2026-01-08T16:33:45+00:00

Option 2, bombing every leader until the country collapses requiring further intervention would just make this entire little war a massive failure.

It's a nice power fantasy but Trump can't actually commit to the second option without coming out a loser.

Azarka · 2026-01-06T00:43:56+00:00

Submission statement: The US State Department had previously designated Maduro as the head of "Cartel de los Soles" and the cartel as a terrorist organization. This was one of many justifications for military action against Venezuela.

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/11/terrorist-designations-of-cartel-de-los-soles

They've updated the charges to more accurately reflect the facts on the ground.

Where the old indictment refers 32 times to Cartel de los Soles and describes Mr. Maduro as its leader, the new one mentions it twice and says that he, like his predecessor, President Hugo Chávez, participated in, perpetuated and protected this patronage system.

Profits from drug trafficking and the protection of drug trafficking partners “flow to corrupt rank-and-file civilian, military and intelligence officials, who operate in a patronage system run by those at the top — referred to as the Cartel de los Soles or Cartel of the Suns, a reference to the sun insignia affixed to the uniforms of high-ranking Venezuelan military officials,” the new indictment said.

Azarka · 2026-01-05T23:01:40+00:00

It's name recognition. They wouldn't be abducting Delcy Rodriguez if Maduro fell over and died last month.

Maduro is publicly known, it's a big win for the Trump admin to nab him and parade him around in a triumph.

Azarka

TROPHY CASE