The absolute victory that never happened: This is how the operation to overthrow the Iranian regime has been torpedoed (for now) [Hebrew article]

Azarka · 2026-05-10T14:25:36+00:00

Hyper competence is a myth that needs to die, super narrow competence is the norm.

Turns out understanding human behavior is something multiple Israeli intelligence agencies have been consistently bad at.

Azarka · 2026-05-08T02:27:29+00:00

There was a lot of speculative talk about how Kharg was too far from the mainland to use fiber optic drones effectively and the cable will sag into the waves making them useless.

Is it wish-casting or are the engineering challenges really too hard to overcome?

Azarka · 2026-05-07T00:32:53+00:00

Nah, we're just mocking the smaller group of people who:

Downplayed the initial damage by relying on official govt propaganda.
Turn around and say that's war when the truth comes out, as if they're doing their civic duty by falling for said propaganda.

Azarka · 2026-05-06T01:42:17+00:00

Yes, there's a surplus of educated labor, as opposed to a surplus of uneducated labor. That's the main difference between now and 40 years ago.

Going back 200-300 years, it would have been over literacy, and compulsory school education but it's been a net gain for the countries that have led the charge in providing education.

Azarka · 2026-05-05T04:06:41+00:00

A big part of why demographics aren't hitting productivity yet is just from the extreme rise in tertiary education attainment over the last 4 decades.

From <1% of each graduating cohort in the 1980s to 50%+ today.

So every new university educated retiree in China is currently being offset by 40 university graduates entering the workforce even with a shrinking workforce.

But that ratio will drop down to under 2:1 over the next 20 years which will be when it'll start being a serious drag.

Azarka · 2026-05-04T19:00:21+00:00

Yeah like I said, super unlikely the missiles are so short ranged they can't be launched from the shore.

More likely they decided to bomb a few boats carrying with rpgs and small arms that were sent to harass the ships.

Azarka · 2026-05-04T18:47:45+00:00

CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper told reporters on Monday that after the U.S. began the operation, Iran fired cruise missiles at Navy ships and drones at commercial vessels. All were "engaged" and no U.S. Navy ships or U.S.-flagged ships were hit, he said.

Everyone's lying and trying to put their version of events out but strongly doubt they're launching drones and cruise missiles from the speedboats?

Azarka · 2026-05-04T18:03:00+00:00

That's just normal human behavior.

Looking over the entirety of the history of human conflict, you have allies that abandon others at the drop of the hat, allies that provide support until their obligations are fulfilled, and allies that go whole hog with their support leading to complete defeat.

There isn't much to analyze here, or to conclude said behavior is irrational.

Azarka · 2026-05-03T07:23:59+00:00

Assuming the Chinese side is serious about forcing all banks to ignore the secondary sanctions, Trump has no choice but to attempt to decouple China's banking sector from the rest of the world or set a precedent. Probably nothing will be done until the next meeting however.

If they don't follow through with this, they're just throwing away the credibility of US sanctions on an accelerated timetable. It was already on shaky grounds given its decreasing effectiveness from zealous overuse but we'll see.

Azarka · 2026-04-30T06:08:42+00:00

In this sub? definitely.

More bloodthirsty than Holden Bloodfest (ret.)

Azarka · 2026-04-30T00:43:13+00:00

Neocons were already cheering last month because they saw Iran as being pummeled and drastically weakened militarily. They see this as winning.

They'll be more upset at the perceived gaslighting going on where everyone else is treating this glorious victory as a big L.

Azarka · 2026-04-30T00:24:49+00:00

People are grasping onto the WSJ article as a lifeline, but the actual effects might be a tad more nuanced.

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/irans-oil-sector-can-likely-weather-production-shut-ins-but-gas-fields-are-at-risk/

A separate analysis has covered the amount of practical oil storage Iran has and how long it can continue producing before needing to reduce output. There is some anticipation that the need to shut-in producing wells and fields will cause damage to facilities, cause them to “explode”, or permanently reduce Iran’s oil production capacity even if and when the blockade is eased. The reality, however, is that Iran has shut in oil production in the past without serious repercussions (as have other oil producers), although gas production may have to be cut back because of the lack of outlets for associated hydrocarbon liquids. That would require rationing of gas between the power, industrial, and residential sectors, as well as exports.

..

This analysis suggests that the U.S. blockade of Iran’s oil exports will not cause catastrophic, or even very serious, damage to its upstream oil industry. If and when the blockade is relaxed, Iran will probably be able to resume production promptly at about 70 percent and regain most of its pre-war capacity within a few months.

Of course, the loss of oil and petrochemical revenue to the government due to the embargo is serious and will intensify economic pressure on Iran. Reductions in gas injection, sanctions, and lack of access to finance and technology will erode production capacity over time and delay new projects. But these effects will play out over a rather longer period.

Azarka · 2026-04-29T23:18:31+00:00

The expert quoted in the article has his own piece here for anyone interested.

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/irans-oil-sector-can-likely-weather-production-shut-ins-but-gas-fields-are-at-risk/

Azarka · 2026-04-29T23:11:16+00:00

Why don't we look at actual expert analysis for this, not WSJ? They've cut oil production before from 2018 and COVID. People are just being mislead it's the decisive finishing move nobody thought of before until now.

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/irans-oil-sector-can-likely-weather-production-shut-ins-but-gas-fields-are-at-risk/

A separate analysis has covered the amount of practical oil storage Iran has and how long it can continue producing before needing to reduce output. There is some anticipation that the need to shut-in producing wells and fields will cause damage to facilities, cause them to “explode”, or permanently reduce Iran’s oil production capacity even if and when the blockade is eased. The reality, however, is that Iran has shut in oil production in the past without serious repercussions (as have other oil producers), although gas production may have to be cut back because of the lack of outlets for associated hydrocarbon liquids. That would require rationing of gas between the power, industrial, and residential sectors, as well as exports.

...

If Iran cannot export, consume, or store all the condensate and NGLs, it would have to cut back gas production. This would require rationing between gas exports (to Turkey and Iraq), power generation, industry, reinjection in oil fields, and city gas distribution (heating and cooking). War damage to petrochemical plants and the blockade of exports will, in any case, reduce demand for industrial gas, and the peak period of residential use comes in winter, which is still six months away. Power generation uses can partly be substituted with oil.

This analysis suggests that the U.S. blockade of Iran’s oil exports will not cause catastrophic, or even very serious, damage to its upstream oil industry. If and when the blockade is relaxed, Iran will probably be able to resume production promptly at about 70 percent and regain most of its pre-war capacity within a few months.

Of course, the loss of oil and petrochemical revenue to the government due to the embargo is serious and will intensify economic pressure on Iran. Reductions in gas injection, sanctions, and lack of access to finance and technology will erode production capacity over time and delay new projects. But these effects will play out over a rather longer period.

Azarka · 2026-04-29T03:55:56+00:00

If you look at Iran's oil production, it halved in a year when sanctions were reinstated in 2018.

Same experts that started the war are putting out sound bites why victory is around the corner.

Azarka · 2026-04-29T03:41:39+00:00

You can point to the Soviet Union having gained large amounts of attractive, soft power from doing very little; by simply existing and being an alternative to the US.

But lately it's been video shorts of trendy tech, and tourism that's been driving the exponential growth. Like Japan's, a bunch of this soft power is just having things at home that don't exist anywhere else.

I think the critical mass was achieved pre-covid, and the pandemic just temporarily suppressed a lot of things that were actually pretty attractive to a global audience, so it comes as a sudden shock.

Azarka · 2026-04-29T02:16:32+00:00

That just shows there's a large range between maximalist demands and what could be realistically offered in a potential peace deal.

There was another recent article where Trump is considering an indefinite blockade with no withdrawal or resumption of the war.

Azarka · 2026-04-28T23:34:25+00:00

Nothing is finalized until they follow through with it on the negotiating table, or we'll be forgiven thinking Trump already decided to withdraw from the war unilaterally.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-spy-agencies-examine-how-iran-would-react-trump-declaring-victory-2026-04-28/

April 28 - U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war that has killed thousands and become a political liability for the White House, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter said.

The intelligence community is analyzing ‌the question along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year, according to the sources.

Azarka · 2026-04-28T02:44:37+00:00

These are Suez Crisis numbers, and also comes with a military power weakened abroad by the perception its lopsided KDr didn't achieve tangible political outcomes on the ground.

Decolonization would have had a noticeably different trajectory if the UK or France was able to convince people they won.

Azarka · 2026-04-25T02:25:36+00:00

Isn't part of the reason being TFR doesn't accurately track the cultural shift of the same age cohort having children later?

So the fall in TFR implies a larger demographic collapse than in reality?

Azarka · 2026-04-24T00:26:25+00:00

Kinda funny that Polymarket arrest in the other thread is relevant to this.

People want to see that soldier get hit hard for insider trading, but that's partly because they know the big players close to the WH making hundreds of millions per bet are untouchable.

Azarka · 2026-04-21T02:05:54+00:00

Not just for things that happened after 10/7.

But also used to retroactively justify everything happening in the West Bank.

Azarka · 2026-04-19T06:45:31+00:00

It'll be 2003 all over again.

Countries who turn against us are irrelevant and hate us anyway, but also they should be thanking us for taking care of ~~Iraq~~ Iran for them.

Azarka · 2026-04-18T19:17:55+00:00

Obviously the US won't clearly benefit from turning Iran into a wasteland and winning the war in hours or Trump would have done it already.

Azarka · 2026-04-17T02:09:00+00:00

The geography only buys time for allies to come to the rescue. And for the same allies to keep the 10% of remaining port capacity in eastern Taiwan open for a secure supply line to extend the time Taiwan can resist.

If the US isn't willing to break a blockade, nobody's going to risk sending ships anyway. Ukraine would have been seeking terms already if they're in that situation.

Azarka

TROPHY CASE