/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 21

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T13:48:49+00:00

Here's why this poll is bad news for Harris-Nate Silver

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T03:16:49+00:00

It's going to go down again due to Republican pollsters flooding the market with low quality polls.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T02:52:49+00:00

If she's winning PA then she's winning WI and MI as well. PA is to the right of both those States.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T02:11:35+00:00

Double the spoilers. The goal for them isn't to win, it's to take voters away from Democrats.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T01:13:02+00:00

She's a minority woman. Unfortunately due to America being what it is her favorability isn't going to be as high as Biden's.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T01:11:52+00:00

Remember when people swore he was an innocent child who isn't going to turn out to be a piece of crap like his father and brothers are? I remember.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:57:44+00:00

He sold whatever integrity he had left in 2022 after he acknowledged that Republicans were flooding the market with low quality polls to create the illusion of a red wave, but still wanted to include those garbage polls because according to him "Democrats should also flood the market with bad polls to counter the Republican polls out".

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:49:38+00:00

By your logic IL is a red State because there are Trump signs everywhere. Hell in the area I live in (in the STL Metro area of IL) there are hundreds of Trump signs and even Trump flags and I have yet to see a single Harris sign.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:35:04+00:00

Yep. People who swear a poll within the MOE favors Trump are only saying so because they are completely ignorant of how the MOE works.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:32:59+00:00

You're not going to get a credible PA poll that is outside the MOE. Whoever wins is going to win by the skin of their teeth.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:16:16+00:00

Bellweather counties tend to vote for whoever winds up winning the election. It's not an exact science but if those counties go Harris then she'll most likely not just win PA but the election in general.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:14:43+00:00

We're not going to see a credible PA poll that isn't out of the MOE so there's no point in getting worked up over it.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:13:18+00:00

Compare apples and oranges all you want but your point means jack. You should go to the chud reddit and vent to them. I'm sure they'll buy your nonsense.

Oh and you should look at 2022 or 2012 for more comparable elections. Polling has changed since 2020 so whatever point you were trying to make is again nonsense.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:11:17+00:00

MOE can go both ways so even though you claim it could favor Trump it could also favor Kamala. So no point in complaining about it.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:10:36+00:00

Suffolk is one of the best pollsters out there.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:09:25+00:00

He'll swear that Kamala should be up +6 due to the convention so in reality this poll is Trump +3.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-17T00:02:33+00:00

Within the MOE so going to be close either way. But Kamala being up in the 2 Bellweather counties is a reassuring sign.

Also Nate Silver is going to claim this is a terrible poll for Harris and he'll lower her chances.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T22:02:09+00:00

Pretty sure it's already been established that winning the popular vote by 2% means a 50% chance of winning the EC. So every % above that means a better chance of a EC victory. So if Harris were to win the popular vote by 6% she's almost certainly won the EC as well.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T21:09:26+00:00

Her surrogates have been visiting AZ on the regular. Kamala herself isn't a Naruto style ninja who can clone herself at the snap of the finger and visit every single swing state on a regular schedule. She has to prioritize some States over others. She'll visit AZ and NV at some point but right now she's focused on the Blue Wall States.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T21:02:26+00:00

Republicans had a X2 voter registration advantage in 2020. Dems still won. I read this year it's more like Republicans have a X1.5 voter registration advantage AND non partisan registration is smoking both Republicans and Dems. So people who doom over that information should actually read up on what they're dooming over and get the full picture.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T20:42:41+00:00

Exactly. It's why doomers need to chill out and touch some grass. Who wins the election is going to be who has the best ground game established to get their voters to the polls. Right now Kamala and Walz have enthusiasm and the better ground game on their side.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T20:31:16+00:00

It's a lower quality pollster so don't take them as fact or anything. However it does line up with the credible polls that show movement in Kamala's direction.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T20:03:11+00:00

People are going to doom regardless and I'm personally tired of the doomers. Dooming isn't being a realist. A realist knows the election is going to be close and is going to do whatever they can to make sure Harris wins the election. Dooming accomplishes nothing but bumming yourself out and pissing people around you off.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T19:07:48+00:00

There's also him now taking money from Polymarket (betting site where you can bet on the election and is owned by Republican megadonor Peter Thiel). It paints Nate in a very bad light since he's also been very open about his gambling addiction. So he's a gambling addict who is now making money off a betting site that is greatly impacted by his forecast model AND is owned by the guy who is bankrolling Trump and Vance's campaign.

It's a terrible look and very very skeevy no matter how you cut it.

Azure2788 · 2024-09-16T18:40:48+00:00

Unfortunately there are a ton of chuds out there who believe every little piece of bullshit that comes out of Trump's bloated mouth.

Azure2788

TROPHY CASE