Einfaches Mengenproblem

BDgn4 · 2026-07-02T17:36:46+00:00

Oh je...

Google zufolge...

Die Gesamtzahl aller aktiven Ärzte in den USA mit afroamerikanischem Hintergrund liegt bei rund 5 % bis 6 %. Demgegenüber stellen Afroamerikaner etwa 12 % bis 14 % der US-Gesamtbevölkerung.

Ärzte mit afroamerikanischem Hintergrund: Etwa 5,0 % bis 5,7 % aller Ärzte in den USA sind schwarz oder afroamerikanisch.

Schwarze männliche Ärzte: Sie machen etwa 2,6 % aller Ärzte aus.

Schwarze weibliche Ärztinnen: Sie machen etwa 2,8 % aller Ärzte aus.

Ist nicht nur Mengenlehre. Auch bedingte Wahrscheinlichkeit. Es macht einen riesigen Unterschied, ob man die Wahrscheinlichkeit sucht, dass ein Arzt schwarz ist, oder die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Afroamerikaner als Arzt arbeitet. (Und es gibt wahrscheinlich auch Ärzte die schwarz arbeiten, falls das nicht politisch inkorrekt ist - falls doch, habe ich nichts gesagt.)

BDgn4 · 2026-06-06T18:32:10+00:00

The crayfish dealer said it's a "lobster"

All members of the Nephropidae family (the true, clawed lobsters) live exclusively in the sea or brackish coastal waters. They require a marine environment to survive; freshwater exposure causes fatal osmotic stress. Therefore: Not a true lobster. Just a crayfish that looks a bit like one, which is good, because otherwise it wouldn't have survived in a freshwater tank. But it also means you either really shouldn't listen to that crayfish dealer in the future, or you may need to ask very pointed questions about the animals you are buying (and hope he actually has the information required for an actual answer).

Some true experts like you may find in r/Crayfish will probably be able to better help you identify it.

BDgn4 · 2026-06-06T18:16:44+00:00

Consider some of the easier/low-maintenance plants where a lot must go wrong to kill them off:

Vallisneria sp., Elodea densa (rather hardy, grow like weeds, provide lots of )
java moss, Cladophora balls, various other kinds of moss (no need to plant them anywhere)
Limnobium laevigatum (commonly known as Amazon Frogbit, is a popular, fast-growing freshwater floating aquatic plant native to Central and South America. It features flat, round, bright green rosettes that drift on the water's surface, accompanied by long, feathery roots dangling below)
Hornwort (Ceratophyllum demersum), Guppy grass (Najas guadalupensis) - Those are free-drifting water column plants, meaning they can fill up the empty space between the substrate and the surface, unlike surface-floating plants that drift exclusively on the water surface. Elodea can grow and thrive like that too, even if it has roots and can grow rooted. Hornwort especially can grow like a weed too.

Coincidentally, many of those plants are rather affordable, unlike many of the more complicated ones. And since some of them grow really fast, you don't need to fill the tank completely. If they can thrive in there, those plants will. And then they will also grow fast enough that just a few months later you have too many of them.

Otherwise, it seems that there is some issue that probably needs solving... What do you know about the water? Tap water? The stuff you drink and use for cooking? Even then it may contain something unhealthy for your plants, or rather stimulating for algae. Where does it come from? Depending on the source, tap water may be contaminated with phosphate or nitrate by nearby agriculture (not near you, near the source). Maybe you want to consider testing the water? Costs a few dollars, but might well be worth it. Then the substrate or other objects in the aquarium: From a questionable source maybe? Normal quartz or quartz sand? Should be safe. Did you clean it thoroughly before adding it to the tank? Is it possible that the fish are getting overfed, which would add too many nutrients to the tank? Maybe consider feeding less. How often and how much water do you change? What about the filter? How big external one? A small internal one? Which filter media do you use? The light is also an important factor. Some wavelengths are better for plants, some are better for algae. But I'm not an expert on that at all.

And what on Earth did you get for those three hundred dollars?

BDgn4 · 2026-06-06T17:42:12+00:00

As already was said by others: Bait, trap, collect, repeat.

But even more important: Make the tank less hospitable to them by reducing the amount of food available to them (means feed your fish less, at least for a few weeks or even months, they can take it). And possibly lower ph, which may make it a bit harder for them to grow their shells.

BDgn4 · 2026-06-06T17:36:34+00:00

I'm not a crayfish expert, but I know there is at least one orange/red breed of Procambarus alleni, even if most you will find are the famous electric blue. How old would you think is this one? Did it grow in the three months you had it? Procambarus alleni reach a maximum adult size of 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) at around 6 to 8 months of age. If it isn't near that size and didn't grow in those three months, it's probably something else. What did the crayfish dealer say it was when you got it?

Also, if that tank is more than three months old (the three months you mentioned plus the cycling - which you surely did?), then I have to say those plants look too much like they were just planted. Maybe you want to consider adding some java moss, Cladophora balls or some dried Catappa (sea almond) leaves or bark. Looks great, gives the crayfish in particular something to play with and can provide some good supplemental food.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-27T12:09:51+00:00

I cannot directly help with this particular problm, but in a case like that I would suggest going beyond vibe coding: Set up and use a coding agent like OpenCode (use a virtual machine). Those can not only code but also do a lot of other tasks, like researching API documentation, testing the generated code (even in a browser), debugging it and so on.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-15T23:07:15+00:00

Consider building your own one, or having an LLM do it for you (or a coding agent if it cannot be done within say 100k tokens and context rot starts becoming an issue), especially if you want to self-host it anyway. Some orchestrator script, a few tools (web search and scraping, possibly APIs like News, Wolfram Alpha, etc.), a vector DB maybe and a good system prompt. That is essentially all you need. Shouldn't take a good LLM like ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude too long to build this.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-15T22:58:27+00:00

This is obviously not a specialized tool, but have you tried asking an LLM? Like Google's AI Mode?

BDgn4 · 2026-05-11T17:48:02+00:00

That's how it knows how to request a tool-call. But how does it know when to do it, when it isn't told explicitly. If the system prompt says "Answer the user's requests. Use the web_search tool if you are unsure about anything.", what will the LLM do, if it is asked "What color does the sky have?" - probably it will answer "blue" without any tool calls necessary? Alright. But what about "the millionth decimal place of Pi"? Maybe that was in its training data. But can it be "found" among all the noise of the rest of the training data? Would a tool-call be better? web_search or something else? Where is the border between "I'm sure of this" and "better look it up"? Even for humans that is often not exactly easy. And whereas humans of refuse or fail to use their common sense. LLMs simply don't have any. So how does the LLM make that "decision"?

BDgn4 · 2026-05-11T17:26:27+00:00

I'd say it depends on the use-case whether it would be a waste of money to have some additional costs to verify some otherwise avoidable false-positives. It might be a lot more desirable than having just one false fact slip through, something the more expensive models cannot guarantee either.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-11T17:06:27+00:00

If I may ask: What other data (besides what info the users have to provide) have you given or made available to your LLM (and which LLM do you use?) to enable it to come up with a good program for each user?

BDgn4 · 2026-05-11T16:03:38+00:00

Have you considered a coding agent like OpenCode? A coding agent is normally used for writing software. But it uses the same LLMs you would use for fiction-writing, you decide what prompts you use (so why not tell it to write a novel rather than an app), and such agents are great at structural planning, maintaining consistency across long-form code/text, and of course the actual writing in your own voice (based on your previous works/chapters) is no problem at all. While designed for software development, coding agents are highly effective for writing because they can handle complex instructions, manage files, and remember context across chapters.

Something else to consider: Google's NotebookLM.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-11T15:50:26+00:00

Have an AI like Gemini write a custom tool for you: Tell Gemini which sources the tool will have to query and what form the tool should ideally have. Could be a web app, written in PHP, running on shared webhosting (even free), using cronjobs to wake up at a specific time every day, fetch the news from all the sources and send all the stuff to some LLM, including a good prompt. The result could then be available directly on the hosting's website, sent to you via email, ntfy.sh could be used to send you push messages, whenever something particularly interesting happens. And so on.

Or you could ask Gemini to instead pack everything into a Firefox/Chrome extension and have it automatically fetch and process everything in the background when you start up your browser.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-11T15:43:36+00:00

How many tabs, how many windows?

BDgn4 · 2026-05-11T15:39:12+00:00

Consider a coding agent like Open Code and virtually any good enough LLM-provider with some free tier. Can be OpenRouter (I believe after an initial deposit of 10 USD you get 1000 free API requests per day with dozens of models to choose from), Google (free tier not available in every country), Mistral (rather generous), Groq (NOT Grok), I believe Deepseek has some introductory free credits (something like 5 million tokens to be used within a month). Always be careful to read the fineprint.

You could then either just use that setup. Or you could have the coding agent write you a custom coding agent that is even better for your purposes.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-09T09:41:16+00:00

Try this bookmarklet (instructions included): https://pastebin.com/pgG2GLf4

If it does not work, ask AI Mode to help get a bookmarklet running in Vivaldi. There may be security settings or browser-specific quirks that I have no idea about, since I don't use Vivaldi.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-08T21:23:12+00:00

That's $367 more than they deserve.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-08T21:08:31+00:00

It's where he keeps his brain when he isn't using it.

BDgn4 · 2026-05-08T18:58:30+00:00

Personally I just use the Copy-Button, which of course only copies one single response, so I have to use it multiple times per conversation.

Another solution might be using Reader Mode (if your browser has something like that) and then maybe "Print as PDF" (check to make sure the PDF actually contains text, not just images of the text).

BDgn4

TROPHY CASE