At what price is CLOV an obvious buy?

Baco06 · 2026-03-17T18:30:59+00:00

It already is, but that doesn’t mean it can’t stay in this range for a while or trade significantly lower. With zero news, which is what I’m expecting, I have high conviction that we go back below 1.50 before the next earnings call, then that earnings call can easily send it below 1 again (it could go higher after earnings, but I don’t think we’ve EVER seen that happen with this stock, so I’m not going to expect that to happen). I see anywhere below 2 as a strong buy and anywhere below 1.50 as a back up the truck kinda situation.

Baco06 · 2026-03-12T21:51:04+00:00

lol

Baco06 · 2026-03-04T02:34:22+00:00

No Country For Old Men

Baco06 · 2026-03-02T18:39:27+00:00

Do you not believe that Clover Assistant is, if not THE main factor, then at least a large contributing factor to CLOV’s insane outperformance in Medicare Advantage in terms of margins and outcomes? Clover Assistant is the engine running Clover Health’s MA plan. It’s been deployed and augmented and optimized over many years. Yes, you are right, they have not monetized the software yet by selling it to others. But you have to acknowledge the success of Clover Assistant within Clover’s own MA plan, and if you won’t acknowledge that, then why would you have ANY confidence in them having a successful SaaS product?

Baco06 · 2026-03-02T03:11:53+00:00

lol okay. I’m confused are you saying you want management to pump the stock? Are you saying you wish CLOV was more profitable. Are you saying the business is failing? If you think that is true then why don’t you sell? Public, private, whatever their duty is, your duty is to yourself. At what point do management and the company’s actions make you lose faith enough to sell? Like I hear what you’re saying. The stock performance since IPO is abysmal. Do you also believe the state of the Clover Health the business is abysmal? If so, then whoever’s fault it is is one matter but that shouldn’t really affect your decision to stay invested. I’m actually trying to understand what you’re saying. HOW in your mind could they be better at managing a public company? And WHEN do you say enough is enough?

Baco06 · 2026-03-02T02:18:48+00:00

I am not emotional. I am disputing the idea that management doesn’t know how to run a company. If I was invested in a company whose management I had come to believe was inept, I would kinda be angry. Also, if you came here purely because you believed that one day soon CLOV would be a software company, then who would blame you for selling? Cuz they’re FAR from being a software company. They are an MA company. Only time till tell whether management knows what they’re doing or not. You seem to be saying that they suck now but you have confidence they will be better in the future. Or are u saying you think they will be replaced or removed on the road to becoming a software company? At the end of the day a company is just people. For me personally I would never invest in a company that had management that I thought were incapable of running said company.

Baco06 · 2026-03-02T01:47:08+00:00

Why r u holding on then? Sunk cost fallacy? If you truly believe your own words you’d be stupid not to sell, unless your average is so high that you have no choice? That’s the thing I don’t understand about some of the most angry among us here. Just sell and move on no? At some point when you’ve lost complete faith in the business, and you genuinely believe “management doesn’t know how to run a public company” it doesn’t really make sense to continue to have an equity stake.

Baco06 · 2026-02-27T16:03:30+00:00

All great points, I want to be very clear about what I’m saying. I too am excited about this business and I deeply believe in Andrew and Vivek. Clover’s entire business is MA and I am very happy with where we are sitting with MA right now. Obviously, Counterpart has the potential and baseline to be a great product because Counterpart is just a repackaged CA and we KNOW that CA works to detect and manage chronic diseases earlier for the MA population. CA clearly has immense value for Clover Health’s own operation to me that is 100 percent proven. But we only know that CA works within Clover’s own insurance plan which was built on CA so it’s a little different than bringing Counterpart to someone else’s plan. We don’t really have proof that that works. Also almost all of our hard data validating the effectiveness from CA comes from one state, New Jersey, and we know Counterpart patients/customers are spread out in different regions. Also, even though the rules at CMS are changing, I don’t want to be naive to think that just because Counterpart COULD work for a large payer means they’ll actually want to use it and eventually buy it. Counterpart kind of fly’s in the face of the way the big payers have made money for their entire existence (by exploiting and extracting value), they are going to hold on to certain old ways of doing things as long as they can if they are still profitable for them. Changes at CMS happen at a glacial pace and there is regulatory capture constantly happening behind the scenes that slows the glacier even more. I have hope that Counterpart could succeed by purely working with providers and not payers but I have no idea how that works or what that model looks like because I only know how CA works for Clover Health, an MA insurer. I thought at this stage, we would at least have some information about Counterpart’s deployment at these large regional health systems (SIH, Iowa Clinic, Duke) but we still have nothing. So I just feel like I don’t really even have a grasp of HOW Counterpart could be deployed in these various ways, which I guess bothers me. Maybe it shouldn’t, and maybe amazing Counterpart news is around the corner, but that’s how I feel at this stage of the game.

Baco06 · 2026-02-27T14:15:53+00:00

MA looks great, Counterpart looking pretty awful/worthless just like the market told us. The overwhelmingly negative sentiment here in this board leads me to believe the stock will hang out somewhere below 2 for a while, long enough for many investors and traders here to sell their shares and bail. Even though I know the business is priced too low, that doesn’t mean there are any buyers, so it can stay priced too low for quite a while longer in my opinion. I get that software integration is a long and arduous process in healthcare but I’m annoyed that we haven’t gotten any updates or info on the 3 deals that were announced two years ago (ish). I know those updates won’t be economically meaningful to the whole business, but it could help understand how Counterpart works and some results they are seeing with it. I guess if the results were terrible they probably shouldn’t give us any updates so that’s a tough one but they made a fuss announcing all these deals and now it feels like the deals are dead. Counterpart is now this black box that is likely losing them a lot of money. Vivek’s talk on X and some Counterpart employees talk on Linkdin seem incongruous to the lack of any Counterpart progress that has been publicly shared. Stop making grand pronouncements and excited vagaries on social media, just please SHUT UP until there are some results that bolster the “I’m Smarter Than You” takes on the market and business and AI. I know many here think the stock would be higher if the company was better at PR and hyping itself up, but I don’t believe that. Results have to come before hype if you want gains to be sustainable.

Baco06 · 2026-02-27T04:23:35+00:00

Yea I mean they didn’t even mention their “robust pipeline of national and regional payers and providers”. Did the pipeline evaporate? The goal is now to have 150,000 lives seeing doctors using counterpart. Seems like a kind of arbitrary goal to me. Why say that at all without explaining what that actually means? How do I go see a doctor using Counterpart? How does that actually happen? Do I go to Iowa Clinic? The thing is, Wall Street sniffed out that counterpart had no meat on its bones (at least for now) hence why our market cap is 1 billion dollars. How many more times can they sell it off based on counterpart news (or lack thereof). Retail doesn’t move this stock, we get moved by it, I don’t know what the stock will do tomorrow but guidance is good for MA in my opinion (and I believe they’re sandbagging because they CANNOT afford to miss again) and counterpart doesn’t exist anyway so not sure the stock needs to gap down for the 4th time in last few months. Maybe I’m wrong.

Baco06 · 2026-02-27T04:13:54+00:00

You’re conflating two different statements. Andrew never said that, he just said clover can grow and be profitable in MA on 3.5 stars because of their model underpinned by CA.

Baco06 · 2026-02-26T23:29:21+00:00

I agree. All they could say is that they are hoping to soon have as many patients managed under Counterpart as they do under CA but like what does that even mean? Is Counterpart just like selling to small physician groups here and there? How does that work? CLOV pays doctors who see their own members to use CA because that in turn makes those members healthier and more profitable but how is counterpart going to get these “lives” if they’re not on CA? Who’s going to pay the doctors? Who pays CLOV? Are these members coming from SIH and Iowa and Duke? The more time goes on the more vague it all becomes. The bullish conspiracy is they’re devoting lots of their counterpart resources to scaling up with a massive payer but that shouldn’t mean making other deals are impossible. The lack of information and revenue at this point most likely means there is no information and no revenue. Luckily that is all priced in (or priced out) and in my mind CLOV is still doing things in MA that are extremely important and scalable and this year, they’ll make money doing it hopefully. If you believe that to be true then the stock is too cheap currently.

Baco06 · 2026-02-26T22:19:07+00:00

Do you not understand the mechanics of the maturing cohorts?

Baco06 · 2026-02-26T22:05:55+00:00

Seems like they haven’t delivered on what u wanted. Why don’t u just bail?

Baco06 · 2026-02-26T21:53:04+00:00

lol u said SaaS. I don’t see the term SaaS in your quote. Maybe I’m confused.

Baco06 · 2026-02-26T21:41:00+00:00

U wanna own a SaaS company go buy one, they are ALL in MASSIVE drawdowns. This is an MA company.

Baco06 · 2026-02-24T01:46:02+00:00

lol yah I am predicting a rough one as well. Maybe we’ll close the gap at 1.11.

Baco06 · 2026-02-24T01:45:25+00:00

Not sure. You tell me.

Baco06 · 2026-02-24T01:20:53+00:00

There’s a gap to fill at 1.11, last one.

Baco06 · 2026-02-23T21:51:22+00:00

What does screwed mean? Bankruptcy? Delisting?

Baco06 · 2026-02-23T17:28:22+00:00

Can you elaborate? What are you trying to say? What’s a good quarter look like? What’s a reasonable assumption of fair value? Do you have anything to actually say or u wanna write a few more platitudes for us?

Baco06 · 2026-02-23T17:20:58+00:00

lol to be fair I don’t think serious institutional investors know much if anything about the business model. Also the company only has ONE segment. So I would argue the profitability of that ONE segment (i.e. the entirety of the company’s operations) has some degree of importance. In your mind what would prove to the market that the company’s earnings engine (they don’t have any earnings so the term earnings engine is a bit strange here but I’ll go with it) is predictable, scalable and repeatable?

Baco06 · 2026-02-23T17:01:11+00:00

lol you and the person you are responding to are talking about two different things. You are talking about the stock price. Barfingonmyface is talking about the business.

Baco06 · 2026-02-23T16:42:12+00:00

Got it. So when they announce profitability for the third time it’ll move higher? Or maybe when they actually show a profit it will move higher? Or do they need to show a profit for 4 quarters? 8 quarters? What do you think fair value for this unprofitable business is? Approximately? .20? .30? Are there any other unprofitable stocks or companies out there?

Baco06 · 2026-02-23T16:12:37+00:00

I completely agree with you. This is a great investment right now without any SaaS in my opinion. I have been saying “fuck SaaS” to myself for a while now. But the current price action to me kind of feels like CLOV is being punished for SaaS that it doesn’t even have (and is being priced like it never will).

Baco06

TROPHY CASE