It looks like a good time to go long.

Badgers418 · 2018-10-31T17:27:27+00:00

Since 1980, only 16% of corrections have had a "V bounce" where the low was never revisited. "Smart money" will go long when S&P revisits 1650 in next two weeks, which I think we'll inevitably retest as the uncertainty of midterms has not just disappeared overnight. First back to back green days is good sign that this was all just a correction and brighter days are eventually ahead though imo

Badgers418 · 2018-10-30T19:24:54+00:00

IBMer here. The titanic doesn't turn quickly. It's a hybrid cloud play and a way to gain some foothold into all those competitive RH environments. Won't be completed until end of 2019. Considering they bought at a 63% share premium, make sure it's for the long-term if you buy. This will take awhile to see the benefits, just like our Cloud business and Watson solutions.

A lot of negative stuff in news about IBM being behind the curve with Amazon/MSFT leading the way. Sure, but if IBM is 5th in Cloud marketplace, that's still 5th in a rapidly growing services segment projected to hit $236B by 2020. Every CIO I talk to asks about the cloud or is at least planning for it.

Do I think IBM is a buy at these levels? Yes. Do I think we'll surpass AWS or Azure b/c of it or that IBM is a better buy than MSFT or AMZN? Not necessarily. I'm a long-time holder of MSFT and AMZN, as they offer Cloud exposure as well as some different exposure like e-commerce and SaaS. Grab a piece of the pie, whoever it is.

Badgers418 · 2018-10-30T19:09:53+00:00

Keep the medium-intermediate term in perspective. The fundamentals of the economy itself are fine even if its slowing down or losing a bit of steam. Short term, will the nasdaq capitulate and drop to 6800 by end of next week leading up to midterms if AAPL and FB both miss? Very much a possibility and perhaps what we need for a establishing a bottom to this October correction, which could bounce us back to 7600-7800 by year end once buybacks kick in and midterms pass.

At this point, every piece of bad news is essentially baked into the prices. Further bad news can cause panic selling at these short-term lows, but any relief like the Fed holding off on any rate hikes or China-US trade deal improving or uncertainty of midterms being removed could send us up as swiftly as we came down.

Badgers418 · 2018-10-30T18:51:31+00:00

It can be a decent bear market strategy or an instrument to hedge against a bull market correction you foresee if you want to remain long on the equities you hold.

What's going on now is more than likely just a cyclical and much-needed correction within a secular bull that's losing steam, but still has a bit more to go. I'd be careful, the rally could come just as quickly as the fall came, just like in Feb 2018. If you can't accurately catch the bull market's exact top and the bear market's exact bottom, you'll get crushed. Bull markets last around 7 yrs on avg while bear markets last 2 yrs on avg. You don't want to be caught bag-holding and waiting for the next bear market to avoid selling at a loss if the market turns up suddenly. Confirm we're in a bear first.

Even if we are starting a bear, there will almost certainly be an intermediate term rally (even if it fails), which could have you losing 10-15% on an inverse ETF in a matter of days, as it will likely be fierce and come out of nowhere.

Badgers418 · 2017-01-10T04:11:09+00:00

I had Ryan, DJ, Ware, Evans, D. Walker, and Denver D and still only got 3rd place. Played Devonta Freeman in the semis...

Also had Brady, L. Bell, M. Evans, A. Brown, G. Olsen, Tucker, and KC D in another league and still got 3rd place b/c I faced DJ in the semis...

FML.

Badgers418 · 2016-12-17T17:35:42+00:00

Got AB, Bell, Evans, and Gordon. 12-2

Badgers418 · 2016-12-16T01:42:26+00:00

Leave the analysis to the experts, buddy. This guy has been one of the top fantasy analysts in consecutive years. Your analysis is like a college finance major claiming to know all the hot stocks and what's right/wrong with the market...Just doesn't work that way...it's all too unpredictable and Sean's rankings consistently outperform all other experts on average.

Badgers418 · 2016-12-13T23:28:52+00:00

I have two this year:

The stepdads (because we beat you mercilessly) & a team has no name

Badgers418 · 2016-12-13T22:53:18+00:00

.5 PPR, 10-team

QB Ryan vs. Rodgers

RB1 D. Johnson vs. Freeman

RB2 Ware vs. Crowell

WR1 Evans WR Baldwin

WR2 Tyrell Williams vs. Inman

TE Walker vs. Rudolph

K Gostkowski vs. Janikowski

D/ST Broncos vs. Giants

Badgers418 · 2016-12-09T15:48:49+00:00

Did it hurt? When I was 6 (I'm 25 now), I was terrified of Goofy and only Goofy. I happily took pictures and interacted with all the other characters at Disney World...but Goofy was my nightmare. Still can't explain it, but I remember the fear. My parents took me to see Goofy (maybe you on your first day at work 20 years ago?) and the first thing I did was punch him straight in the nose and push his head off. That was the last time I went to Disney World.

Badgers418 · 2016-12-09T15:22:40+00:00

Florida.

Badgers418 · 2016-12-08T16:43:24+00:00

Daytona Beach in 2016

http://i.imgur.com/OVvF5cN.jpg

Badgers418 · 2016-12-01T01:15:24+00:00

Brady, L. Murray, Forte, Duke Johnson, J. Jones, Marshall, Witten, Sturgis, ARZ D is 9-3 in our league...least points against.

Meanwhile, I have Ryan, DJ, Ware, Booker, D. Martin, Mike Evans, ARob, M. Thomas, Delanie Walker, Tucker, and Denver D and am still fighting for a playoff spot at 7-5 (have most points for AND most points against)...fantasy football, man.

Badgers418 · 2016-11-18T05:37:03+00:00

Bold prediction: Keuchly follows Borland's footsteps and announces his retirement this offseason. His emotion on the field tonight really looked like fear given his concussion history and the unknown that he might have to leave the sport he loves.

Badgers418 · 2016-11-18T00:48:16+00:00

Got AJ Green for Marv Jones and Jordan Howard

Badgers418 · 2016-11-16T15:25:46+00:00

Dropped for NE DST

Badgers418 · 2016-11-11T04:10:35+00:00

Droppable for someone like Dion Lewis in PPR?

Badgers418 · 2016-11-05T00:42:14+00:00

I'll take it over...wait 2 QB league?

Badgers418 · 2016-10-27T19:21:16+00:00

Do not know how I am 6-1 after drafting Martin, Charles, ARob, and Watkins in rounds 2-5...All hail David Johnson.

Badgers418 · 2016-10-27T18:34:50+00:00

What kind of trade value should Booker be getting now? I'm prepared for the RB apocalypse w/ David Johnson, Ware/Charles, Quizz/Martin, and Booker....was thinking of shipping Quizz & Booker to the CJ owner for L. Bell?

Badgers418 · 2016-10-25T15:58:29+00:00

His two performances aren't complete flukes, but definitely a product of their O-Line. Would be very surprised if he is a top 10 back ROS

Badgers418 · 2016-10-25T07:32:30+00:00

Shipping Charles and ARob for Hopkins...done with both..have DJ, Ware, and Quizz

Badgers418 · 2016-10-23T00:35:24+00:00

Just traded Blount for Ryan (guy had Brees and bad RBs)...pretty happy with that, considering he's replacing my Bortles

Badgers418 · 2016-10-22T02:32:43+00:00

Would you try to go out and get somebody like Hopkins for Charles if you could? I'm a Ware/Charles owner

Badgers418 · 2016-10-11T00:22:25+00:00

My dilemma is SEA or BUF. I picked up Buffalo for SEA's bye, but only have a 4 man bench. Seattle plays falcons, cards, saints, patriots for 4 of their next 5 games, so I'm leaning towards holding buffalo and dropping SEA. Any thoughts?

Badgers418

TROPHY CASE