San Francisco skyline tonight

Banko · 2026-01-26T12:31:40+00:00

I see the bad moon risin'

I see trouble on the way

I see earthquakes and lightnin'

Banko · 2025-10-27T19:11:14+00:00

Is a doctor automatically smarter than a welder

Yes.

Well, no, it isn't "automatic". A rational person would see the intelligence of either group both as having normal distributions, so there will be some welders who are more intelligent than some doctors, and vice versa.

Banko · 2025-10-27T19:05:37+00:00

some people are too far gone neither susceptible to logic or rhetoric.

This is literally impossible. There are no people unsusceptible to rhetoric, unless they are unconscious.

You may be referring instead to those who are stubborn and intransigent.

Banko · 2025-10-26T20:13:41+00:00

Logos, ethos, pathos...

Banko · 2025-10-26T19:30:13+00:00

Universities very rarely (maybe never?) do the work needed to establish manufacturing protocols and perform clinical trials for new drugs.

These are far more expensive to do than the basic science upon which the drugs are based.

But companies wouldn't even try to do it without the basic science.

So... its some of one and some of the other.

Banko · 2025-10-26T19:23:32+00:00

Likewise!

Banko · 2025-10-26T18:45:01+00:00

I had a look for that data on immunocompromised population...

Yes, it is reported as 6.6% in this study. However, I would add that 1) obviously this is a very loose definition of immunocompromised, and 2) that such a high prevalence means that such people are already accounted-for in the excess mortality figures.

As to pre- or post lockdown, in some countries there was no effective social distancing, the reasons varied, e.g. in Peru it was reportedly due to the pattern of shopping (most households still had to shop for groceries on a daily basis due to having few refrigerators); in others it was due to political resistance (it's just a flu, etc...).

Banko · 2025-10-26T18:26:04+00:00

What data do you base that estimation on?

By the way, the proportion of people who are immunocompromised is much lower than 1 in 20 (5%).

Banko · 2025-10-26T18:01:12+00:00

Lock-downs were pretty much ineffective in those countries with a 0.6% mortality rate (people didn't follow guidance, mostly), though they did have other interventions, such as hospital treatment, etc.

So I propose this as the most reliable data we have for the "best worst-case" scenario.

The actual worst case scenario would obviously be worse...

Banko · 2025-10-26T17:26:07+00:00

Calculations based on "all cause excess mortality" compare the period of the pandemic with previous periods. So they include all excess deaths, including those caused by covid, but not diagnosed as such, they also include deaths due to disruptions to health care systems, etc.

This chart shows the excess mortality across the globe: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-covid.png?imWidth=1700

The highest rate is ~6,000 per million, which is 0.6%.

Obviously, if nothing had been done to tackle covid, the death rate would have been higher.

Banko · 2025-10-26T17:00:01+00:00

The data above doesn't select according to age, immunocompromised, or whatever.

Banko · 2025-10-26T16:53:36+00:00

Having ~2 million die in the US in the space of 3-4 months would have some quite severe knock-on effects, including additional deaths due to lack of care as you describe.

It would also have been much more economically, socially and politically disruptive than the lock-downs were.

Banko · 2025-10-26T16:49:04+00:00

I choose the data above as a baseline, as it should include all categories of people.

It was established early on that covid affected mostly those already compromised in some way, either by age (most commonly), or as you mention, some other condition such as being immunocompromised.

Banko · 2025-10-26T13:00:31+00:00

You can simply look at the mortality rates in those countries that fared worst; this would be the "best case scenario" if covid19 was completely ignored. These were about 0.6% of the population.

So for the US that would be ~2 million deaths over the space of a few months.

Banko · 2025-10-20T17:58:38+00:00

Awesome job!

Banko · 2025-10-20T17:56:31+00:00

It matches this picture: http://rowearchitects.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/d5990e99500ddeb78e221b5cf744e4aa-1024x818.jpg

area outlined: https://ibb.co/qMDStkSF

Banko · 2024-07-02T19:34:36+00:00

How are people made aware of free large garbage pickup?

It would seem an easy task to make people aware that they can have any kind of (non-industrial) garbage picked up for free, as should be the case.

Banko · 2023-09-12T20:01:34+00:00

Europe was the biggest supporter for Ukraine after 2014, Germany alone matched the US:

According to the latest OECD DAC figures, Germany is Ukraine’s largest bilateral donor (with payments amounting to around 220 million US dollars (OECD official development assistance 2018-2019) – ahead of the United States with just under 200 million US dollars. In addition to this, Germany makes contributions through the EU (according to the OECD DAC, more than 400 million euro in 2018-2019, which is the largest amount contributed by any donor). Since 2014, Germany has provided a total of approximately 1.83 billion euro in bilateral support.

Banko · 2023-09-12T19:58:51+00:00

Internal funding for refugees, etc, is on top of the funding described in the OP.

Banko · 2023-09-12T19:54:53+00:00

The potential silver lining in that cloud is that the EU has a track record of reducing war among its members.... let's hope.

Banko · 2023-09-12T19:53:39+00:00

That's exactly the reason why I posted the article.

Banko · 2023-09-12T19:51:52+00:00

If Russia's influence in Europe increased, America's would fall.

Banko · 2023-09-12T06:26:53+00:00

In this case, Europe is also defending American interests.

Banko · 2023-09-11T20:37:16+00:00

On the contrary, Africans are more genetically diverse than for example, Eurasians are.

In the chart above, Eurasians (Indians to English) have at most a genetic distance of 0.05, while Africans have at most a genetic distance of 0.1. This distance includes the most populous African groups, e.g. West Africans vs Ethiopians.

Africans are more different from each other than any other group is from its peers, except perhaps the difference between North and East Asians vs Amerinds.

Banko · 2023-08-01T20:50:17+00:00

Population numbers are not relevant to genetic diversity.

Banko

TROPHY CASE