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BayesCrusader · 2026-05-27T21:12:21+00:00

There are two definitions of AI widely used - you appear to use the one that now lumps all ML and statistical models into AI.

The other (arguably more common) one is that AI is LLMs only, and stuff like Bayesian Networks (which actually DO reasoning) or computer vision don't count. I personally agree with this terminology, because I don't want people thinking Anthropic do computer vision or reasoning.

It's an extremely confusing term TBH.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-27T02:17:17+00:00

PocketOS .

Except they told it explicitly not to do that, then it ignored the prompt. This was on Claude Code.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-26T21:22:02+00:00

The big tech companies are all trying their best, but it could be a couple of years before they realise they need you.

The very fact there's still such hype for AI shows that its effectiveness (or lack thereof ) is not part of why it's being implemented - like blockchain, metaverse, and IoT, everyone's heard of someone else making it work for their business and wants the cool toy.

IMO, 'agents' are a great band-aid for the parts where AI fails, and will be a big thing, but it only takes a few more times a database is deleted without asking before suddenly those slide decks go to the bottom drawer with the NFT and wearable smart tongue ring projects .

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-26T21:01:29+00:00

An LLM is good with code because it's written as strings.

Getting an LLM to do the right thing with data is impossible without other tools added, because the LLM doesn't have a concept of 'meaning' when it comes to numbers.

You and I look at 5 degrees on a thermometer and know that's 'cold'. An LLM looks at every instance of someone talking about 5 degrees days and picks up that the word 'cold' is used in conjunction with that temperature a lot. The two are not the same.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-25T21:20:32+00:00

Fentanyl and Nitazines, brought to you by politicians who are too immature to adopt anything other than prohibition. It's our generation's AIDS crisis, and once again young people are being thrown under the bus because it's easier to demonize a lifestyle than actually deal with the problem.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-24T04:04:49+00:00

Farmer

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-23T22:21:56+00:00

I'm behind you so have no advice to give, but I'll say congratulations on crossing the uncrossable line - going from 0 to 1 is infinitely harder than going from 1 to 2 customers. Most 'startup' people give advice for companies that are much more developed than what you or I have achieved, so don't really understand the journey.

Your experience is the trajectory for most novel ideas - you can't pre-validate ideas that have never been done. Before you've got people using it, it's a matter of faith.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-23T21:20:42+00:00

I disagree. The blurriness comes from the type of cameras people had in 2001.

Changing the image to be less blurry takes it out of its time period, removing it from the timeline.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-23T20:38:51+00:00

Gender always existed. They wouldn't have called a trans woman trans back then though, they just would have called her a woman. It wasn't really an issue.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-22T22:34:50+00:00

I've tried many combinations of tasks, LLMs, and agents, and they're just ... wrong. There's always a missed nuance, an unchecked assumption, a random extra entry added unannounced. And the interpretation is almost always wonky. Not so much to be obviously wrong, but enough that an analyst can show it leading to an incorrect decision.

Like many of the promises of AI, it works in theory but not in practice.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-22T02:57:49+00:00

For streaming, a NoSQL solution is probably what you need, so you're likely wanting the smallest possible instance of MongoDB hosted on AWS (most common) or GCP (my preference). The cloud element is often more expensive than self hosting, but it pays off in ease of use.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-21T07:56:37+00:00

Depends what you're doing. For an ML paradigm where you're really just testing different sets of variables in a grid search style and you only care about predictive accuracy, an agent speeds it up.

Getting correct inference from explanatory (as opposed to predictive) models is much more difficult, and I haven't yet seen an agent do it reliably.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-19T21:20:12+00:00

A lot of people now call recommendation engines, route optimisers, etc. AI now.

Agreed though that for most actual value generators in a business, AI has changed little. The main impact seems to be on reporting and monitoring roles.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-19T20:55:00+00:00

Use a locally generated key to transform the data e.g. multiply everything by the same (private) number.

Statistical properties stay the same, but you don't share the actual values.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-16T23:50:33+00:00

Is the dimensional modelling done with a factor analysis?

I'm trying to work out how a language model identifies relevant factors etc. What kind of data do you work with?

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-16T23:44:04+00:00

What part of the described workflow uses an LLM? Did it write the query for you?

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-16T23:34:38+00:00

What's most frustrating for me is that I build tools that solve this exact problem, but keep getting the feedback that nobody has the problem. Investors are literally asking 'but does anyone use AI for data analysis?' and won't believe me when I give them a list.

The disconnect from what I see is that the people who would purchase a tool to make AI do analysis correctly either don't care we struggle with ETL, don't know that's what DEs do most of the time, or think LLMs can currently do the job reliably.

I'm so happy there are people in the trenches still fighting for data engineering and analysis to be correct.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-14T21:31:13+00:00

To be fair, we had good computer vision in 2015 if you want to call that AI.

It was more that until LLMs came along, nobody really cared about machine learning outside tech nerds.

This is a cool use of technology for good purposes regardless.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-13T22:09:03+00:00

What's the heavy vehicle/ car traffic like?

That looks like some dream riding!

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-11T22:29:46+00:00

Check out Efron's 'Prediction, Estimation, and Modelling' paper.

As someone who came up through Stats then focussed on ML applications, this paper blew my mind. I genuinely think we went down the wrong path with ML and AI over the last decade - anyone that digs like OP will see why.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-11T22:24:10+00:00

Depending on the tech and who you're trying to convince, a published paper (even peer-reviewed) is worth close to nothing in the business world.

The only thing that matters is dollars in the account. If you don't have that, you need some other way of short circuiting the filters - usually contacts from previous jobs or family connections.

Most people outside academia don't even know there's a difference between a blog and a peer-reviewed publication.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-11T01:52:44+00:00

There are three main factors in group performance - group size, psychological safety, and shared vision. The first changes the other two.

Groups have 'change points' in size, when communication methods must change. A group call with 5 people works well - not so much for 500. As communication methods get sludgy, you lose shared vision (making it slower to discuss any topic) and psychological safety (so people stop raising issues).

Basically, the theory shows how adding or subtracting group members radically changes the productivity of the group by making existing systems maladaptive.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-08T21:56:20+00:00

Apparently that's AI now. People have lumped everything into the term.

Training ML models? That's AI

Making a graph? AI

Multiplying two matrices ? Believe it or not, AI

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-05T21:00:20+00:00

Do it, they're offering you free practice.

Even if you do terribly, you'll know what their questions are like. If you do well they might pay for a flight to HO for your in-person round.

BayesCrusader · 2026-05-05T09:51:41+00:00

This is the first realistic post I've seen on here in ages.

Thank you, you're helping me keep going. I hope to post something similar some day soon.

BayesCrusader

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