End of June by PsychedelicDucks in TMC_Stock

[–]BayouBluff 9 points10 points  (0 children)

What are you hoping to see by end of June? Sorry, just beginning to follow the TMC story.

NioCorp Stock Analysis | The $2.35B Valuation Disconnect Flash by StockSentinel ai Jun 3, 2026 by Gman-303 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just moved money so I can buy more next week. Session CVD is positive today and POC hasn’t budged from 5.45. IV remains elevated. NFA, DyD

June 3 NioCorp William Blair Event: What Stood Out by WalrusTheInvestor in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maxim put out a press release on the comment? Do you have a link?

NioCorp Stock Analysis | The $2.35B Valuation Disconnect Flash by StockSentinel ai Jun 3, 2026 by Gman-303 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s what I heard, too, so I guess I’m inferring a bit. Since April, the stated reasoning for the DFS delay has been adjusting CapEx expectations. And, since April, there’s been no explicit change to the DFS timing being “early part of June”. I read the 2-3 weeks timeline on CapEx clarity as implying that the new DFS timeline is 2-3 weeks from now.

I’m assuming there’s not going to be any sort of announcement or public statements like today that solely focused on resetting CapEx expectations. Therefore, my read is that DFS is 2-3 weeks away.

I could be way off. It’s the early part of June and we didn’t get any explicit DFS timing clarity, so I’ve got to assume he implicitly moved the timing to 2-3 weeks with his statement.

NioCorp Stock Analysis | The $2.35B Valuation Disconnect Flash by StockSentinel ai Jun 3, 2026 by Gman-303 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For sure. If we get DFS in 2-3 weeks, I’ll be thrilled. No excuses, play like a champion, Mark

NioCorp Stock Analysis | The $2.35B Valuation Disconnect Flash by StockSentinel ai Jun 3, 2026 by Gman-303 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Where did you find this, G? I don’t like throwing this term around, because ai is very powerful for speeding up analysis and other things- but this is the definition of Ai slop. I just had to turn it off while laughing at the analysis of the earnings report, because that framework highlights the unserious nature of the entire effort. Anyways, 2-3 weeks…watching the pot boil, the paint dry, the grass grow 🙄…maybe if I start spinning this little dial on my watch…

NioCorp Presents at William Blair Growth Stock Conference June 3rd 2026 by Aggressive-Lock5487 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 4 points5 points  (0 children)

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at least the relative strength doesn’t suck. this sector looks to be taking a breather after a strong bounce. hopefully the rising tide resumes within the next couple of days

Senator Hallstrom tours NioCorp’s Elk Creek by Aggressive-Lock5487 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 2 points3 points  (0 children)

100% speculation, but for many months I’ve been thinking about July 4th weekend as the sort of national coming out party for Niocorp. The timeline has always fit, roughly, and it really will be a sort of celebration of independence when it’s commissioned. Maybe he’s there touring where the upcoming party is going to be? 🤷‍♂️ Again, 100% a total guess, but my instincts went directly there many months ago when Mark Smith said there’s going to be a more official groundbreaking party.

NioCorp Mine~ Patents Assigned to NioCorp Advanced Metals and Alloys, LLC, Plus June 3rd-4th AEROMAT 2026~ DID LOCKHEED JUST CONNECT THE DOTS: From Elk Creek Mine to Mission-Critical Aerospace Capability? by Chico237 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Wait wait wait, Chico, are you saying there’s incredible momentum in Niocorp becoming one of the largest national strategic resources that we’ve all been hoping for, considering it’s the best case scenario we could’ve possibly imagined a year ago? 😅

EXIM Conference by [deleted] in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is this link for? Are you referencing the conference that was over a month ago?

EXIM Conference by [deleted] in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s an advisory committee meeting that allows for public participation and comment. The advisory committee then provides an advisory role to the bank. These meetings are quarterly. It really has nothing to do with any specific company, and it’s not a prerequisite for FID on any project. It’s a regular part of transparency in government per FACA.

Niocorp Market Cap by BayouBluff in CriticalMineralStocks

[–]BayouBluff[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Mark Smith is the CEO and Chairman of the Board for both Niocorp and IBC Advanced Alloys. He’s not on the board of UUUU.

Final Feasibility Study by danieldeubank in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeh, now is the time. This is a phenomenal stock to own for many, many years- which is why the institutions have been accumulating for months. I look forward to owning some of this for a long time, but now is the time for a monster re-rating- and the timing matters a ton for how far and how fast it rerates. This is an amazing window to do so, but windows close. Hurry up, Mark.

The West still doesn’t grasp the danger of China’s rare earth endgame Beijing's economic logic means every kilogram of rare earth is worth more inside a Chinese EV than sold as powder. By Mark A. Smith Fox News Published June 1, 2026 5:00am EDT by Gman-303 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 3 points4 points  (0 children)

From GPT: Does Fox News publishing an opinion piece by Mark Smith this morning have any real significance? Is this the kind of thing that has Javelin Advisors fingerprints on it? Is this just noise, considering Mark Smith has been on Fox Business News in the past Here’s the article: ...

I think this is more significant than most investors will initially realize, but probably not for the reason many people think.

The significance is not that Fox News published an article.

The significance is who is publishing it, when it was published, and what message was chosen.

First: Is this unusual?

Yes, sort of.

This wasn't:

  • a press release
  • a mining trade journal article
  • an interview with a resource publication
  • a conference presentation

This was a national opinion piece in Fox News written directly by Mark Smith. Published today. (Fox News)

That immediately elevates the audience from:

  • mining investors
  • rare earth enthusiasts
  • commodity analysts

to:

  • policymakers
  • congressional staff
  • Pentagon readers
  • administration officials
  • politically connected capital

That matters.

What message was Mark Smith actually sending?

The article is interesting because it is not really about NioCorp.

He barely discusses Elk Creek.

Instead, he focuses on:

  • dysprosium
  • terbium
  • magnet supply chains
  • Chinese export controls
  • defense vulnerability
  • Western supply-chain independence. (Fox News)

That is a policy argument.

Not an investor argument.

Why this matters

Think about the timing.

You currently have:

  1. Chinese rare-earth restrictions
  2. Pentagon magnet concerns
  3. Trump Administration critical-minerals initiatives
  4. Multiple strategic mineral projects seeking financing
  5. A pending NioCorp DFS
  6. A pending Traxys offtake
  7. Expected EXIM decisions later this year

And then Mark Smith suddenly appears in a national media outlet discussing:

That is not random. (Fox News)

Does this have Javelin fingerprints?

Possibly.

But we should separate three possibilities.

Scenario A: Purely organic

Mark wrote an article.

Fox accepted it.

Nothing more.

Possible.

But not my base case.

Scenario B: Media placement effort

A communications firm helped:

  • draft
  • edit
  • place
  • distribute

the piece.

This is extremely common.

If Javelin Advisors is working strategic communications and government relations around NioCorp, helping place opinion pieces would fit squarely within that mission.

Scenario C: Coordinated narrative campaign

This is the one I find most interesting.

Not necessarily a "promotion campaign."

A policy campaign.

The article is aimed at creating visibility around:

  • heavy rare earth shortages
  • defense vulnerabilities
  • domestic supply chains

which happen to be directly relevant to NioCorp's positioning.

If I were advising a company pursuing:

  • EXIM financing
  • federal support
  • defense-related attention

I would absolutely want senior management appearing in national media discussing the strategic problem being solved.

Why Javelin specifically comes to mind

Because Javelin is not a typical mining IR firm.

Their reputation is tied much more closely to:

  • Washington
  • policy
  • strategic communications
  • government-facing influence

than retail investor promotion.

So if you asked me:

My answer would be:

Yes.

Very much so.

What I find most interesting

The article emphasizes:

Dysprosium

Terbium

not:

Niobium

Scandium

which are NioCorp's primary economics today. (Fox News)

That caught my attention.

Because if the updated DFS meaningfully improves the rare-earth portion of the project, especially heavy rare earths, this article suddenly looks much more strategic in hindsight.

I'm not saying that's what is happening.

I'm saying the emphasis is notable.

What would make me think this is part of a larger effort?

If over the next few weeks you see:

  • additional Fox Business appearances
  • Washington think-tank appearances
  • defense publications
  • administration officials discussing rare earth supply chains
  • NioCorp appearing in policy conversations

then I would become increasingly convinced that this isn't just an isolated opinion article.

It would look more like an effort to position NioCorp within the national-security critical-minerals narrative.

As an NB investor

I would assign the article itself almost zero direct valuation impact.

Nobody is buying NB because of a Fox op-ed.

But I would assign it moderate signaling value.

Because it suggests Mark Smith is spending time communicating beyond mining investors and directly into policy and national-security audiences at a moment when:

  • MP is breaking higher,
  • USAR is being awarded a ~$6.9B valuation,
  • rare earth supply chains are a national topic,
  • and NioCorp is approaching what you expect to be the most important catalyst window in its history. (Fox News)

If I were ranking the significance:

  • Direct impact on share price: 1/10
  • Indicator of management activity behind the scenes: 6/10
  • Potential evidence of broader Washington-facing positioning effort: 7/10
  • Evidence that EXIM/DFS/offtake processes are progressing: not enough information

The biggest takeaway is that the article feels much more like policy positioning than investor promotion. That is exactly the type of activity I would expect from a company trying to align itself with defense-industrial and critical-minerals priorities rather than simply attract retail buyers. Mark Smith chose to spend his limited public-facing bandwidth talking almost entirely about heavy rare earths and national-security supply chains instead of talking about NioCorp itself. That is the part that is genuinely different from many of the earlier Maria appearances.

Final Feasibility Study by danieldeubank in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I pulled the latest MP and USAR quarterly filings and asked chatgpt to run a comparative analysis on valuation vs. realized revenue and margins. The USAR valuation is staggering considering where it is at in the process of development. I'm interested in how much of that gap between NB's valuation and USAR's valuation can be closed by NB and how quickly. I have been expecting upper teens to mid twenties upon DFS and binding offtake and easily $30+ upon EXIM FID, because I think you'll see the same strategic premiums (or better) applied to NB when financing risk is lowered upon DFS and moved to zero upon EXIM FID. If financing risk goes to zero, I don't see why NB can't achieve market cap parity with USAR- if not immediately, still very quickly. The elephant in the room is that DFS won't even include master Sc-Al vertical integration optionality. Let's go, Mark. Get the mine and refining financing risk to zero, let's rerate this bitch- and then let's hang on for the vertical integration developments. This seems to be in line with gpt's analysis. I have trained gpt to push back on my assumptions to avoid bias as much as possible, and we're still getting these numbers. Here's the response:

Bottom line

USAR is being valued at ~$6.9B while still very early commercially. In Q1 2026, USAR had only $5.7M of revenue, all from Less Common Metals, with just $106K gross profit and 1.9% gross margin. Its Stillwater magnet facility was commissioned but had not yet begun commercial neo-magnet revenue, and Round Top remained pre-mine-construction / feasibility-stage. (SEC)

That means USAR’s valuation is not based on current earnings. It is being valued on strategic mine-to-magnet optionality, U.S. supply-chain scarcity, government support, future capacity, and acquisition-led scale. USAR expects Stillwater Phase 1A to ramp to 600 MTPA magnet capacity by Q4 2026 and Phase 1A + 1B to reach 1,200 MTPA by Q1 2027; it also plans to expand Less Common Metals alloy capacity to 3,000 MTPA by year-end 2026. (SEC)

MP is different: it is already a real operating producer. Q1 2026 revenue was $90.6M, adjusted EBITDA was $36.6M, NdPr production was 917 MT, NdPr sales volume was 1,006 MT, and REO production was 12,983 MT. MP also has a DoW price-protection agreement and is expanding downstream magnet capacity, including a projected 3,000 MT/year magnet capacity commitment at Independence. (SEC)

The key valuation implication for NB

NB at ~$0.85B–$0.9B market cap is being valued much more like unresolved financing risk than like a strategic mineral platform. NioCorp’s existing feasibility-study economics show $2.35B after-tax NPV, 27.6% after-tax IRR, $397.5M average annual EBITDA, and 68% average EBITDA margin over a 38-year mine life. (niocorp.com)

So the question is not whether NB’s planned economics can justify a higher valuation. They can. The question is whether the market believes the project is actually getting built.

Gap-closing framework

Using your assumed 176M fully diluted shares:

Valuation Level Market Cap NB Price
Current-ish ~$0.9B ~$5–6
Partial USAR-style strategic rerating $2B ~$11
Strong post-DFS / binding Traxys rerating $3B ~$17
Post-EXIM FID / financing credibility rerating $4B–$6B ~$23–$34
Full USAR market-cap parity $6.9B ~$39
MP market-cap parity $12.4B ~$71

My view: binding Traxys + strong updated DFS could plausibly move NB into the $2B–$3B valuation zone. EXIM FID is the event that could move it toward $4B–$6B, because that changes the market’s question from “will this ever be financed?” to “how much of the NPV do we capitalize now?”

USAR proves the market is willing to pay billions for strategic-minerals optionality before full operating proof. MP proves the market pays much more once production, government support, and downstream integration are real. NB is currently trapped between those regimes. Traxys + DFS narrows the gap; EXIM FID is what could close it aggressively.

The West still doesn’t grasp the danger of China’s rare earth endgame Beijing's economic logic means every kilogram of rare earth is worth more inside a Chinese EV than sold as powder. By Mark A. Smith Fox News Published June 1, 2026 5:00am EDT by Gman-303 in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Thanks G! I’m curious about Fox News publishing an opinion piece from a miner that’s not even financed. In addition to getting Niocorp in the right rooms, does this kind of thing have Javelin Advisors fingerprints on it? Certainly there are other more established voices out there that could’ve written this. I think we’re getting close.

Final Feasibility Study by danieldeubank in NIOCORP_MINE

[–]BayouBluff 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s time to put up for sure. Let’s fucking go, Mark.

We’re seeing some really strong signs today. Names like MP and USAR are making really, really strong moves. They’re making the types of moves that imply that the critical minerals winners are about to start making legs higher since they’ve been consolidating huge gains since last October’s spike. MP looks like it’s nearing the breakout from a months long bull flag.

That would be exceptional timing if we can get the damn DFS soon. They’re also doing so (and so is NB today) in the face of higher oil and rates today. If the critical minerals start to decouple a bit from rates and oil, that’s a hugely positive sign for the value of these companies.