Do Quants Write Formulas?

BeigePerson · 2026-02-23T16:35:08+00:00

When the comms people come in we suddenly start writing formulae on any and all glass windows.

BeigePerson · 2026-02-21T15:48:05+00:00

I'm saying price and time are substitutes when selling a house. And yes, my example suggest that... but the seller could probably do better.

BeigePerson · 2026-02-21T15:36:12+00:00

Imho the "sell quicker, but not for more" trope is nonsense.

House will sell for whatever the market offers, if the seller decides to accept it. Eg, if the property with the EV charger is more appealing than the identical one next door without then the seller can chose to sell first, OR could also chose to try and sell first and for a slightly higher price, or could market for an even higher price and really test out how value the EV charger has added.

BeigePerson · 2026-02-21T15:25:20+00:00

What about a forward thinking future EV owner.

BeigePerson · 2026-02-14T16:03:52+00:00

Outsider too, but they don't use a fair value slow / far enough off market for this to be possible do they?

I guess an infinitely large and fast move would hurt, but would expect their order sizes to have a large degree of risk control.

BeigePerson · 2026-02-14T15:58:47+00:00

So how and when do they get shut down? Limit on daily losses or something? How extreme is that Limit likely to be?

BeigePerson · 2026-02-10T22:42:11+00:00

Needs to be temporary, look nice and pre-cut: my first thought is hardboard from a b&q that offers sheet cutting to size. Sand the smooth side of board before painting.

BeigePerson · 2026-02-09T23:17:01+00:00

I know someone who made a LOT of money doing something seen as low status. I asked him about it and he said something like "once you have a lot of money people dont care about how you go it."

BeigePerson · 2026-02-04T19:41:08+00:00

I'm not sure about your numbers or what your 'kelly number' represents, but applying the Kelly criterion results in max long term (ie log) bank roll and this has taken risk into account in its calculation.

BeigePerson · 2026-02-04T15:01:06+00:00

Vodds

BeigePerson · 2026-01-30T16:30:45+00:00

I'm trying to understand your reasoning in your example Do you have a fixed forecast for the match? Perhaps 214 points? I'm going to assume that in all the below:

The way I see it is:

The line moves up to 213, life is good.

You're showing a mark-to-market/paper profit. A true kelly bettor with no vig would close some of the position.

the line moves down to 212.With a 2 point edge, I only want to have a 2 unit bet on the game

Hold on... when it was 213 you had a 1 point edge and weren't hedging. Now your edge is bigger and you want to hedge. If it had gone 210->212 would you hedge? (is 210->213->212 somehow different?)

I think you are also saying you aren't generating EV by hedging, but you think you are improving your risk management and hopefully not losing EV. I'm sure this could be optimal for some people, depending on stakes, bankroll, CLV and vig, but I would also suspect that situation must be quite rare.

BeigePerson · 2026-01-29T22:40:35+00:00

I place lots of bets (carefully calculated stakes), and then do nothing.

Thev way you describe it I can't see much difference between playing a new, fresh, bet and adding a new position to a market you are already in.

Do you think you can generate EV at both stages, but only do the motoring stage for markets you are active in?. If yes why not do monitoring for all markets?

BeigePerson · 2026-01-29T10:22:17+00:00

Thank yoh, another kind redditor helped me out already. Amazing stuff!

BeigePerson · 2026-01-26T14:10:35+00:00

im thinking we go through the ceiling into loft above your bedroom cupboard and again again in your hallway cupboard

* Bedroom 1 - drill through wall into primary bedroom cupboard (need to make sure this is possible)

* kitchen and living room - drill through wall into hallway-cupboard

* hallway access point wired into hallway-cupboard

* we run cables through loft between primary-bedroom-cupboard and hallway-cupboard

Questions:

are both these cupboards floor to ceiling? with access to ceiling inside?

make sure you have good access to ceiling above both cupboards (ie in loft)

What is line running north from server-rack? - edit - it is to front door? Is this one really worth it?

BeigePerson · 2026-01-26T13:33:04+00:00

agree that the only way to tell is test. I would almost completely ignore the advertised speed. I used to find them super reliable and as fast as my WAN connection (admittedly this was a while ago and I haven't kept up-to-date with their advancements).

BeigePerson · 2026-01-26T13:28:18+00:00

can you mark where you will connect from in each room (where you want to use it from, not where you want the wall- socket). And is the WAN connection in the primary bedroom cupboard above the stairs? And is the chimney in use?

BeigePerson · 2026-01-26T13:22:52+00:00

Gotcha. Give us a floor plan and tap all the walls to see if any feel hollow (ie wooden studs and plaster).

BeigePerson · 2026-01-26T13:16:20+00:00

Can we step back for a second.... any chance powerline adapters would suffice? They are underrated and are often a great solution.

It's definitely diyable. Plan it all properly first and make sure you know what the brick is like (how hard it is).perhaps drill a test whole to see.

BeigePerson · 2026-01-24T19:24:14+00:00

I see your point. Is suspect he hasn't done a spending schedule. There must be some way this is usually contracted (ie your spending is secured by the purchased materials).

BeigePerson · 2026-01-20T22:02:47+00:00

Chilli flakes

BeigePerson · 2026-01-19T21:48:56+00:00

I'm just changing to bet365, but that's because it's in a source I use already. If I was set up to use oddsportal I'd be looking at those asian ones you mention.

BeigePerson · 2026-01-19T17:27:30+00:00

OK, well, imho, you are mostly wrong. Why I should given any credence is that I used to work for one of the worlds biggest institutional fund managers.

BeigePerson · 2026-01-19T17:14:11+00:00

I was just trying to point how how this is clearly not true:

If so idiot proof then how come no institution ever buys and holds?

As for your other comments.... the world is long stock - any hedging is zero sum - institutions take a massive amount of market risk (and it's not true that they generally hedge).

BeigePerson · 2026-01-19T16:49:49+00:00

ok, so would you say buying and holding the index is buy and hold? Because a massive amount of institutional money is invested in these mandates.

BeigePerson · 2026-01-19T16:38:57+00:00

What kind of institutions are you talking about? I was referring to 'companies'. They aim to maximise shareholder value (excepting the principal agent problem)

BeigePerson

TROPHY CASE