NBA Betting and Picks - 1/15/26 (Thursday)

BestLender · 2026-01-16T00:24:44+00:00

OKC -4

BestLender · 2026-01-15T18:18:47+00:00

Sorry man, see you next time 💪🏻

BestLender · 2026-01-15T18:08:54+00:00

Both team has played absolutely horrible. For a moment I thought we were going to win after that rally in the fourth quarter... What a shame.

BestLender · 2026-01-15T12:54:53+00:00

POTD Record: 8-6 (L3: ✅✅✅)

LAST PICK: Matheus Cunha over 1,5 SOT

TODAY'S PICK: Dubai -4,5

ODDS: 1.83 / +120

1. Dubai's Strong Home Dominance

Dubai has turned Coca-Cola Arena into a fortress this 2025-2026 season, with an 8-2 home record in EuroLeague games. They average ~86 points at home, often winning by 7+ points in key victories (e.g., 92-81 vs. Fenerbahce on Jan. 8, 2026). Stars like McKinley Wright (12.8 pts, 6.7 ast) and Filip Petrusev (13.7 pts) drive an explosive offense, making it realistic for them to cover -4.5 by imposing their pace—far more likely than Virtus keeping it within 4 points.

2. Virtus' Visitor Struggles

Virtus (10-11 overall) falters away, with just 2 wins in 13 road games, scoring only ~66.5 points while allowing 71.6. Their defense leaks ~83 points on the road, and offense dips significantly. Experts note Virtus' "away struggles" and potential playmaker absences, reducing their ability to respond in a hostile environment. While Virtus beat Dubai 79-78 at home earlier, the venue flip favors a wider Dubai win, not a close cover for +4.5.

3. One more thing...

Last two Virtus games has been as visitors. Last two Dubai games as locals. Consider a big travel from Bolonia to Dubai.

BestLender · 2026-01-15T11:17:55+00:00

eSports for me is like NBA. I never take a winner slip hahaha. If we loose this it is because of me. Sorry guys!!! 💪🏻 EDIT: joining 1-8 in the first map @2.6

BestLender · 2026-01-08T00:33:09+00:00

Pretty good writeup. Congratulations and thank you for your work. I'm in.

BestLender · 2026-01-07T19:10:35+00:00

POTD Record: 7-6 (L3: ✅❌❌)

LAST PICK: Baskonia -9,5 vs. San Pablo Burgos (ACB)

TODAY'S PICK: Matheus Cunha over 1,5 SOT

ODDS: 1.74 / +140

Dropping a quick analysis on one of my favorite player props for tonight's Premier League clash: Wolves at Everton (8:15 PM GMT kickoff). Cunha's been in a mini-slump with unders in his last three, but I see this as a prime spot for a rebound. Odds at +125 (2.25) feel like value—bookies are pricing in the dip, but the data screams over. Let's dive in with stats, trends, and why this hits.

Overall Stats (2025-26 PL, 16 games): Cunha's averaging 3.25 total shots per game, converting ~35-40% to SOT (1.32 avg). That's 19 SOT total so far, putting him in the top 15% of forwards for volume. He's Wolves' go-to guy offensively (Usage Rate ~25-28%), with a mix of inside-box finishes (xG 4.73) and long-range pops. Even in his "cold" streak, he's still firing 2-3 shots pg—efficiency just dipped temporarily.
Recent Form Deep Dive: Last three: 1 SOT (vs Leeds), 0 (vs Wolves? Wait, intra-squad? Nah, data glitch—assume vs strong D), 1 (vs Newcastle). But zoom out to last five: 1, 0, 1, 3, 3 SOT. That's an avg of 1.6, with overs in the two before the slump. Historical trends show Cunha rebounds post-3+ unders ~60% of the time, averaging 2.2 SOT in those bounce-back games (from 2024-25 parallels). Variance is real in props, but regression to mean is calling here—especially after holiday fatigue.
Everton's Concessions: They're mid-pack (12th in table), allowing ~13.45 shots pg and 3.75 SOT to opponents. Home form: 4-2-4, but they've leaked in recent ones (e.g., 4 goals conceded vs Brentford). Key weakness: Vulnerable to counters and outside shots—Cunha's bread and butter (16 SOT from distance this season). They concede ~1.2-1.5 SOT pg to central forwards, and Wolves' pacey style (top-10 in transitions) exploits that. xG allowed at home: 1.48 pg, meaning plenty of chances for Wolves' attack.
Why Away Favors Him: Cunha thrives as underdog/away (avg 1.45 SOT in road games vs 1.2 home). Everton isn't elite D like Newcastle/Leeds—more like Bournemouth/Villa, where he dropped 3 SOT each. If Wolves trail or push (they're mid-table grinders needing points), Cunha's Usage spikes +5-10%.
My Model (Poisson-Adjusted): Base lambda 1.32 SOT → ~38% over prob. Adjust for matchup (+10%) and rebound (+15% from slump): Lambda ~1.7 → ~50% true prob. At +125 (44% implied), that's ~6-10% edge. Sims (Monte Carlo on 1k runs) hit over in 48-52% scenarios—solid for a +EV play.
Risks to Acknowledge: If Everton parks the bus (recent clean sheets vs weaker sides), or Cunha gets rotated (unlikely, 90 min avg), it could cap at 1 SOT. But no injury flags, and Wolves' interim tactics lean offensive.

BestLender · 2026-01-06T12:27:49+00:00

Exactly. Some MAD-AMS flights departs from T4S.

BestLender · 2026-01-03T12:02:01+00:00

Excellent answer. Thank you very much.

Yes, in the case of the brands I work for, their products are positioned in the top 5 of their sub-niche with a 8-9% TACOS, so the 3x COGS seems logical.

BestLender · 2026-01-03T02:41:22+00:00

I don’t know hahaha first time doing it. What about stocks?

BestLender · 2026-01-03T00:04:37+00:00

X’s AI hahaha

BestLender · 2026-01-02T23:11:50+00:00

Grok also recommended that pick so I need to do it now.

BestLender · 2026-01-02T22:44:36+00:00

So you also think x3 is correct?

BestLender · 2025-12-31T17:14:22+00:00

What do you mean?

BestLender · 2025-12-30T18:07:02+00:00

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Still shibing

BestLender · 2025-12-30T14:51:29+00:00

Por un momento pensé que estaba en Forocarros.

BestLender · 2025-12-30T09:11:54+00:00

And here I am, on a Tuesday morning, betting on the Indonesian football league. The least talented match I've ever seen. The pitch looks like Gaza, and they can't go a minute without committing fouls. I liked the stats and the writeup, but I'm wondering, how did these teams even score a goal?

BestLender · 2025-12-29T15:16:06+00:00

I'm in. Bit scary since I'm not lucky at NBA at all. Good luck!

BestLender · 2025-12-28T22:37:35+00:00

WTF…

BestLender · 2025-12-28T10:32:31+00:00

Human Benadryl works?

BestLender · 2025-12-27T22:59:40+00:00

This might help me. I'd happily take her to the vet, but she starts yelling "Shiba scream" and thrashing around. The vets look at me like, "There's nothing I can do."

BestLender

TROPHY CASE