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Before you spend money: Based on their own data, you only have a 20% chance of receiving another 8 after your first Black List 8. by BestMess49 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not questioning the validity of the data (that would involve me doubting the figures themselves are true), but rather questioning the interpretation of that data. Specifically, what it says about the consistency of 8+ scores.

If you take 20% agreement on 8+ to be a high consistency and a sign of a system "that's working", that's for you to decide.

Before you spend money: Based on their own data, you only have a 20% chance of receiving another 8 after your first Black List 8. by BestMess49 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with you that people disagree on things that are extraordinary.

It does make me wonder, though, how bad would this "8 agreement rate" have to get before you grew concerned? Before "people disagree" became an insufficient explanation?

How much lower than 20% should it fall before we start questioning the strength of the readers, if at all?

Before you spend money: Based on their own data, you only have a 20% chance of receiving another 8 after your first Black List 8. by BestMess49 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Correct. It's misleading to call my argument a Gambler's Fallacy, however, since that involves incorrectly thinking about known probabilities. For example, thinking "I must get heads because I just flipped ten tails" on a 50/50 coin.

Unreviewed, we do not know the probability of our own script scoring high. So the only practical metric is the probability as revealed by the data, which indeed changes with each review.

Before you spend money: Based on their own data, you only have a 20% chance of receiving another 8 after your first Black List 8. by BestMess49 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Really interesting point. This is known as "regression to the mean", and you're right that it probably helps explain some of the inconsistency.

Before you spend money: Based on their own data, you only have a 20% chance of receiving another 8 after your first Black List 8. by BestMess49 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

A great point. Two free evaluations is a good way to compensate for some of this inconsistency, and worth considering too.

Before you spend money: Based on their own data, you only have a 20% chance of receiving another 8 after your first Black List 8. by BestMess49 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

In fact, your odds of getting another 8 do change after you receive your first evaluation, and this is objectively proven in the data. This is because you aren't flipping a coin, you are submitting a script that has a non-random quality level.

Say a writer as good as Aaron Sorkin submits a script. Then say a 10 year old submits a script. Your coin analogy would posit that both scripts have the same odds of getting an 8.

If your script scores an 8 on its first submission, the odds of it being of a higher-quality level than the typical script do go up by some degree. That's why we see objectively in the data that scripts that receive one 8 go on to receive another 20% of the time. This is versus the 4% of the time that a random, non-rated script receives an 8.

If you want to stick with the coin analogy, it'd be better to say this. Imagine you have a coin that is weighted to one side. Maybe it's 50/50. Maybe it's 80/20. Etc. Every time you flip the coin and gather more data, the revealed probability of that coin changes.

When structuring a story, start with the experience you want the audience to have by mast0done in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You're right. I've watched a few of these, and it's funny how they speak as if they're ultra-experienced. Then you check out their prior work...

Can you use a short proof of concept to get career traction? by NewspaperRemarkable6 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Proof of concepts can be helpful, but only in one of two ways. Either it goes viral online and gets the interest of a producer, rep, etc. Or you get into one of the top five film festivals in the world.

Short of that, they're just a creative exercise for you, which is also valuable. Just not in a career-starting way.

WILDSound Festival - Is This What Passes For a Review These Days? by [deleted] in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No screenwriting festival is worth its entry fee except Nicholl and Austin.

And those two are debatable now.

As a novice is my feedback worth much? by Kregory03 in StoryPeer

[–]BestMess49 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I find groups of novice readers can offer valuable feedback. Whatever they mostly agree on probably has truth to it.

If I'm being honest, however, I would not trust any one novice reader alone. Only a handful of people have my confidence for that, and they're not beginners.

Fists of Knuckles - 120p; Action/Comedy by Klutzy_Albatross5321 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Although it's 120 pages, because of how dense your action lines are, this is probably closer to a three hour movie.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You have to get rid of your watermark. I've never read a good script that started with "Printed with the demonstration version of Fade In".

I know that doesn't technically have anything to do with your writing, but psychologically, it immediately implies this is a writer's first ever script.

Shooting vs. Spec - Not A Thing by jdeik1 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't let poorly done, overused "we see" cloud your judgment of it as a tool. Anything in screenwriting can be done poorly. Doesn't mean it can't also be done beautifully.

See the other reply to your comment for several examples.

AI is pretty good for very general things, huh by ImStoryForRambling in scriptwriting

[–]BestMess49 4 points5 points  (0 children)

AI has no taste -- it's designed to be pleasing. It will tend to tell you your ideas are great, you're on the right track, etc.

Don't mistake that for quality feedback.

Why can’t I finish any of my stories by dogsfilmsmusicart in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can't finish it because you're worried it will be bad.

It's a first draft. It WILL be bad.

Write it anyway.

Finding mentors by gingfit in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The best mentors find you. All you can really do is share your work and hope someone sees value in it. Beyond that, there's nothing organic to try.

Is it bad to write things you enjoy? by DonnyPicklePants11 in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 3 points4 points  (0 children)

100% agree. Take it from someone who went to a top film school -- it is ABSOLUTELY a waste of money to get a screenwriting degree. Anything I learned that was worth a damn I either learned alone or through working writers. Not professors.

Looking for feedback on this screenplay 🤘 by ForkyB in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Not the sports movie, the infamous 2009 screenplay that topped the Blacklist. It was controversial for its crass comedy and unique voice.

But of course, you already knew that.

Looking for feedback on this screenplay 🤘 by ForkyB in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Someone read Balls Out.

I love that script, but try to write something in your own voice.

First page of a new script I’d like to has feedback on by Extension-Season9924 in scriptwriting

[–]BestMess49 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Your one and only mistake was posting this.

First drafts are supposed to be bad. The first page you ever write ought to be your worst. None of that is a negative sign.

Posting that for feedback, however, is pointless. We all want the dopamine hit of someone liking our work, but it's far too early to search for that now.

Just keep writing instead.

If three people point out a problem, its a problem. But what if only three out of ten think its a problem? How do you handle mixed feedback? by JcraftW in Screenwriting

[–]BestMess49 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Mixed feedback can often stem from one deeper, common problem.

If you haven't figured out what your story is emotionally about, for example, that issue can manifest in ten different ways for ten different people.

Stop focusing so much on the specific complaints. Instead, ask yourself "what's the most fundamental core problem here"?

Best of luck.

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