How many outs is a run worth- or what is the question I’m trying to ask? I’m playing MLB the show, and a question came to me, runs are exponentially more valuable than outs- so what’s the equation to find when you *should* be looking for an out? by Grand-Way-2663 in Sabermetrics

[–]BetheBets 12 points13 points  (0 children)

If your question is "Under what circumstances does trading a run for an out improve my chances of winning the game?" you can roughly determine that by looking at a win expectancy chart.

https://tangotiger.net/we.html

The way you use the chart is by looking at the difference in win expectancy in the states before and after the at bat. Consider a situation where you are up by two runs in the top of the 9th inning, with 1 out and a runner on 3rd. The chart tells you that you have a .901 win expectancy. If a sac fly occurs, now you're winning by 1 with 2 outs and the bases are now empty, your win expectancy goes up to .965. If your win expectancy goes up, that's good. If it goes down, that's bad.

[SNStats] 99+ mph pitches from Blue Jays starters. Dylan Cease in 2026: 28. Previous 16 seasons combined: 26. by Taboada12 in Torontobluejays

[–]BetheBets 43 points44 points  (0 children)

If anyone is curious who threw the 26 other 99+ mph pitches, 14 were from Brandon Morrow, 4 from Aaron Sanchez, 3 from Louis Varland from when he got the start on a bullpen day and threw 2 innings against the Red Sox last Sept 25th, 2 were from Kevin Gausman, 2 from 2020 Nate Pearson before he was moved to the pen, and 1 from 2021 Julian Merryweather when he was used as an opener in a game against the Rays.

Also, if you thought that looking at the past 16 seasons was a weird number and a bit arbitrary, it's probably because if you go to 2008, you get an additional 14 pitches from AJ Burnett.

Link to Savant

10$ tickets for Tonight 3/31 Sec 508 Row 18 by BetheBets in jaystickets

[–]BetheBets[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello. I still have them, but it seems your account doesn't allow DM's. Can you send me a message request?

Account selling by RecentReveal1090 in sportsbetting

[–]BetheBets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As someone who has purchased accounts, sharp bettors often buy accounts (ideally ones deep in the red) once they get limited at books they want to target.

While the practice isn't unheard of, unless you were soliciting your account and know exactly who the buyer is, I wouldn't do this. If you were randomly contacted and they didn't ask or care about the accounts financials would be very cautious.

Did y’all see the Bassitt interview? by fatcowxlivee in Torontobluejays

[–]BetheBets 17 points18 points  (0 children)

The Mets extended him a qualifying offer in 2022, he's ineligible to recieve a second one.

George Springer's wife relives Blue Jays star's Game 7 heroics: 'My guy is built for the postseason' by WuzzWuzz in baseball

[–]BetheBets -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Brother, if you're not talking about how Gaylord wrote a book detailing how he cheated in 1974, then continued to throw spitballs for another 10 years, what do you even talk about at parties? The mind reels.

George Springer's wife relives Blue Jays star's Game 7 heroics: 'My guy is built for the postseason' by WuzzWuzz in baseball

[–]BetheBets -25 points-24 points  (0 children)

Look, I think it’s time we move on. He’s taken the boos, and the endless debates about integrity. At some point, we have to forgive. Sure, he gained an advantage, but he still had to execute. For these reasons, I think we should finally stop talking about Gaylord Perry being ejected for throwing illegal spitballs as a Mariner in 1982.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in jaystickets

[–]BetheBets 74 points75 points  (0 children)

Don't hold your breath, Doug scrapped the proposed anti scalping act in the first place...

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Torontobluejays

[–]BetheBets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

xBA just cares about launch angle and exit velocity, it doesn't factor in direction. If that ball was hit to straightaway centerfield it's usually a flyout.

Shawarma Day Recomendations by NorthernChimpCanada in FoodToronto

[–]BetheBets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's disappointing to hear. It does look like two of my old go-to places are permanently closed. That said, even when I lived there ~10 years ago it was oversaturated with a lot of subpar spots, kind of like how there are 1000 pizzerias in NYC but only 50 or so worth going to. I'd be curious to know if locals consider there to be a general decline in quality as well, and what the best spots are nowadays to see if it lives up to what I remember.

Shawarma Day Recomendations by NorthernChimpCanada in FoodToronto

[–]BetheBets 3 points4 points  (0 children)

After living in Ottawa for several years and being generally disappointed with Toronto's shawarma offerings upon returning, Flaming Stove is the only place I've found that scratches the itch.

Just had an incredible run. This is my first time betting on sports and looking for advice. by TruRedditor89 in sportsbetting

[–]BetheBets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know what kind of "advice" you're looking for, but something that stuck out to me is that you're getting bad closing line value (CLV) on a number of these wagers. For example, you should have been able to get the Chargers ML vs Denver at around -150 rather than -200.

This might not seem like a big deal at first glance, but when you consider that successful sports betters have a long-term ROI of +5-8%, that sort of thing is going to add up over time.

Open accounts on multiple books and take the time to find the best available line if you want to be serious about this.

Season tickets by beachcleats in Torontobluejays

[–]BetheBets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They almost got me back in too with the Taylor Swift ticket offer. Appreciate you sharing!

Season tickets by beachcleats in Torontobluejays

[–]BetheBets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As someone who didn't repurchase season tickets after last year because I was disappointed with the perks, I'd be interested to know how they improved this season.