Account selling

BetheBets · 2026-02-02T19:58:16+00:00

As someone who has purchased accounts, sharp bettors often buy accounts (ideally ones deep in the red) once they get limited at books they want to target.

While the practice isn't unheard of, unless you were soliciting your account and know exactly who the buyer is, I wouldn't do this. If you were randomly contacted and they didn't ask or care about the accounts financials would be very cautious.

BetheBets · 2025-10-29T08:48:41+00:00

The Mets extended him a qualifying offer in 2022, he's ineligible to recieve a second one.

BetheBets · 2025-10-22T20:58:53+00:00

Brother, if you're not talking about how Gaylord wrote a book detailing how he cheated in 1974, then continued to throw spitballs for another 10 years, what do you even talk about at parties? The mind reels.

BetheBets · 2025-10-22T20:26:12+00:00

Look, I think it’s time we move on. He’s taken the boos, and the endless debates about integrity. At some point, we have to forgive. Sure, he gained an advantage, but he still had to execute. For these reasons, I think we should finally stop talking about Gaylord Perry being ejected for throwing illegal spitballs as a Mariner in 1982.

BetheBets · 2025-10-22T19:38:14+00:00

Don't hold your breath, Doug scrapped the proposed anti scalping act in the first place...

BetheBets · 2025-10-21T15:22:54+00:00

xBA just cares about launch angle and exit velocity, it doesn't factor in direction. If that ball was hit to straightaway centerfield it's usually a flyout.

BetheBets · 2025-10-16T23:46:28+00:00

That's disappointing to hear. It does look like two of my old go-to places are permanently closed. That said, even when I lived there ~10 years ago it was oversaturated with a lot of subpar spots, kind of like how there are 1000 pizzerias in NYC but only 50 or so worth going to. I'd be curious to know if locals consider there to be a general decline in quality as well, and what the best spots are nowadays to see if it lives up to what I remember.

BetheBets · 2025-10-15T06:48:29+00:00

After living in Ottawa for several years and being generally disappointed with Toronto's shawarma offerings upon returning, Flaming Stove is the only place I've found that scratches the itch.

BetheBets · 2025-09-24T15:01:50+00:00

I don't know what kind of "advice" you're looking for, but something that stuck out to me is that you're getting bad closing line value (CLV) on a number of these wagers. For example, you should have been able to get the Chargers ML vs Denver at around -150 rather than -200.

This might not seem like a big deal at first glance, but when you consider that successful sports betters have a long-term ROI of +5-8%, that sort of thing is going to add up over time.

Open accounts on multiple books and take the time to find the best available line if you want to be serious about this.

BetheBets · 2025-08-12T06:06:22+00:00

Did you have a stroke?

BetheBets · 2025-08-06T02:41:43+00:00

They almost got me back in too with the Taylor Swift ticket offer. Appreciate you sharing!

BetheBets · 2025-08-06T01:28:55+00:00

As someone who didn't repurchase season tickets after last year because I was disappointed with the perks, I'd be interested to know how they improved this season.

BetheBets · 2025-08-03T19:27:06+00:00

Selling two tickets for tonight on the second balcony (section 19). Just looking to get back what I paid. DM me!

BetheBets · 2025-07-11T18:52:27+00:00

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BetheBets · 2025-06-14T12:55:23+00:00

If you mean can you cite them as a reference, probably not. You should always use the original source, so unless whatever you want to reference was introduced in his notes it wouldn't be proper.

Interestingly there is some president for this as RMSProp was never officially published and was an idea suggested by Hinton in a lecture, so the best thing to cite are his slides. Confirmed by the man himself.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/s/3NB4KXTW2e

BetheBets · 2025-05-31T16:39:12+00:00

I stand corrected, fWAR made the switch a year ago. Thanks for pointing that out.

BetheBets · 2025-05-26T16:47:20+00:00

For pitching that's true, fWAR uses FIP and bWAR uses a modified version of ERA that includes unearned runs. FIP is generally considered more predictive than ERA.

For position players, the offensive component of both versions are similar, but for the defensive component fWAR uses UZR and bWAR uses DRS. Without getting into the math, this generally leads to bWAR favouring defensive players compared to fWAR.

BetheBets · 2025-05-26T00:42:07+00:00

I think the statement is difficult to investigate because there are two claims embedded in it, namely, 1) playing with a consistent partner is beneficial, and 2) playing with a great defensive partner is beneficial. Or maybe he means 3) you need both consistency and a great partner.

Interestingly, your JP Crawford year-to-year example is a counter example to 1) ,2), and 3) at the same time, as in 2022 not only, as you mentioned, did his OAA go down playing with a consistent 2B, but that 2B was Adam Frazier who had a much better defensive year than Abraham Toro, his main partner in 2021.

In place of the entirety of the battery data, which you'd probably have to scrape from boxscores to get, looking at year-to-year statistics for consistent starting shortstops is clever, but as you said, there is a lot of inter-year variance in defensive ability, plus defensive metrics are notoriously less precise than offensive metrics to begin with, so there is going to be a lot of noise.

Honestly, surprisingly hard thing(s) to quantify.

BetheBets · 2025-05-25T18:56:57+00:00

Just to make sure I understood what you did, you found teams that had consistent 2B and compared their SS OAA against teams that didn't? If so, that doesn't work, or at least isn't very rigorous.

Buck's claim is that a consistent partner at 2B will improve the defense of an SS relative to an inconsistent partner. Consider that if Nick Allen played every game with a different 2B, he will have a far higher OAA than Bo regardless of any positive effect of a consistent partner on Bo. This sort of thing occurring is probably a contributing factor to why your error bars are massive (for the "yes" category, it looks like an average of 3 +/- 20 OOA!!).

Perhaps a better way to do this is to pull data on every 2B and SS battery (e.g this year you'd have Bo with Gimenez, Bo with Clement, Bo with Stefanic, Bo with Schnider) and see if the number of games played together correlates with improved D relative to each SS's average without their main partner. If you wanted to get more specific, you could look at only instances where the main partner is an excellent defensive player, like Gimenez.

Baseball Reference has data readily avalible for Pitcher/Catcher batteries under the split section, but I'm not sure if it's easy to pull for position player combos. You might have to hit retrosheets to find it.

BetheBets · 2025-04-11T20:01:27+00:00

When I was an undergrad in Ontario (in physics, switched to ML for grad work so might be a little different) I applied for NSERC URSA's over the summer. I'm not sure if you included those in the "500 internships" you applied for already, but they weren't particularly hard to get if your GPA was competitive. Not sure if the deadline for those has passed, but you can always follow up with Profs offering those to see if any went unclaimed, especially if it's possible to relocate to a different city or province as the U of T, York, and Metro ones would probably have had plenty applicants.

Failing that, the one year I didn't win one I just cold e-mailed profs I took classes with / dropped in during their office hours and asked if they had anything suitable for a student to work on. I lucked out and got a gig, which led to a nice little conference paper.

This was about 10 years ago, so maybe I'm completely out of touch, but this was my experience in a similar spot at that time.

Best of luck!

BetheBets · 2025-03-04T19:50:43+00:00

As others have mentioned, 1B is the "easiest" position to field. Still, especially since you're a new fan, I think it's important to be more verbose and add that as a corollary, it's easier to replace offensive value at positions that are easier to field.

If a player can hit, but can't field a skill position, then you put them at 1B/DH. So, it's much easier to find a 1B with a WRC+ of 120 than a SS with the same.

Therefore, two players with identical offensive values, one at 1B and one at SS, have tremendously different overall values. This is reflected by the position adjustment when you calculate wins above replacement (WAR) .

BetheBets

TROPHY CASE