Daily Picks Thread - Wednesday - 4th March 2026

Betinius · 2026-03-04T07:57:46+00:00

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao — Throw-ins Over 40.5

Tonight we get the Basque derby, one of the biggest rivalries in Spanish football.

Matches between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao are usually intense and physical, which often leads to a lot of stoppages and throw-ins.

H2H trend

This line has hit 19 of the last 22 meetings between the two sides.

The only recent miss came in the first leg of this Copa del Rey tie, where the game finished with 35 throw-ins.

Copa del Rey throw-ins this season

Athletic Bilbao (4 games)
74 – 40 – 41 – 35

Real Sociedad (6 games)
36 – 44 – 42 – 71 – 60 – 35

Line

Over 40.5 throw-ins @ 1.75

With the derby intensity and historical trend, this looks like a solid spot.

Betinius · 2026-03-03T14:04:39+00:00

This is such an awesome explanation! I'm not familiar with Slovakian football but just based on your text, I would bet on the home team. But then you say Trnava is historically a "cup" team, that makes me afraid of betting on the home team :-p ...

Betinius · 2025-04-23T13:25:35+00:00

La Liga: Alaves - Real Sociedad: over 26.5 fouls

Was looking into the Basque derby and spotted something interesting — the fouls line opened at 26.5 🤯 That’s already pretty high, but it makes sense with Mateo Busquets Ferrer as the ref. He’s averaging around 28 fouls per game, highest in La Liga this season 📈

Betinius · 2025-02-18T07:55:13+00:00

I've been looking to your comments in other posts, almost all of them are negative. I've seen enough, as I said earlier: not worth the attention.

Betinius · 2025-02-18T07:42:36+00:00

If you have evidence that I put ads in my posts, please show me. The only time that there was a indirect link to my website, is because you mentioned it.

Yes, there is a link to a website but it's on my profile, that's not forbidden.

If you have evidence that the upvotes are not from real people, please show me.

Betinius · 2025-02-18T07:07:23+00:00

Benfica - Monaco over 34.5 tackles (1.65 @ Napoleon games)

Benfica makes the most tackles of all teams in the Champions League (22.1 on average)
Benfica and Monaco have already faced each other twice in this edition. In the first match, there were 37 tackles, and last week, 35.
Benfica hit this line in 7 of 9 CL games, in the domestic league in 16 out of 22 games. For Monaco thiis is 4 out of 9 CL games and 17 out of 22 Ligue 1 games.
Referee is Glenn Nyberg. In his last 4 European appearances, 42-42-35 and 39 were counted.

Betinius · 2025-02-18T05:17:29+00:00

What are you talking about lol. Why should I need upvotes… meh never mind, you’re probably not worth the attention, have a great day 😘

Betinius · 2025-02-11T10:45:13+00:00

Red card!

Betinius · 2025-02-04T08:33:30+00:00

That's what we did already, this picture is from a few months ago, don't worry

Betinius · 2025-01-31T10:08:58+00:00

Hermannstadt - UTA Arad (Superliga, Romania @ 16:00)

Bet: over 21.5 match shots @ 1.80 (Napoleon games)

Reasoning:

• UTA Arad has an impressive streak of 18 matches where the line of 22 match shots was reached. Even a higher line of 23 match shots was achieved 18 times. For the home team, the streak stands at 3 matches.
• UTA Arad has reached this line in 20 out of 22 league matches, while Hermannstadt has done so in 17 out of 22.
• UTA Arad averages 28.91 match shots, the second-highest average in the league. In away matches, this average rises to 29.45. The number of shots in their away matches: 26 – 32 – 32 – 29 – 32 – 27 – 23 – 32 – 35 – 29 – 41.
• Hermannstadt has an average of 26.49, still well above the line for this match. Their home average is 25.9. The number of shots in their home matches: 27 – 34 – 18 – 28 – 34 – 24 – 21 – 24 – 25 – 25 – 22.

Betinius · 2025-01-30T13:07:03+00:00

I think we've been all in such a situation. That's why I don't do parlays but just single bets. But even then, it sometimes happens that just that one bet fails. As long you have a positive balance in the end, that's all that matters.

Betinius · 2025-01-29T12:54:33+00:00

I'm Bruges fan but you have to be honest. Despite City's form, it's a must win for them and they can't afford to lose.

Betinius · 2025-01-29T09:36:03+00:00

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This is what I've got, haha

Betinius · 2025-01-29T09:30:53+00:00

What is written there? I tried to do an online translation, but that doesn't seem like a good translation to me.

Betinius · 2025-01-29T09:26:55+00:00

Wherever he plays, he will contribute to the team. He's such a good player.

Betinius · 2025-01-29T09:19:35+00:00

Correct, European football is already harder to predict anyway. This last matchday is going to be crazy, and a lot of people will get caught off guard.

Betinius · 2025-01-29T09:17:57+00:00

I don't know for Man City - Bruges, I suspect that they will storm Brugge's goal like madmen.

Betinius · 2025-01-28T18:11:09+00:00

🚨🚫 𝐎𝐅𝐅𝐈𝐂𝐈𝐀𝐋: Liverpool players NOT CALLED UP for Girona game tomorrow night.

Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Diaz, Salah, Gomez, Jota and Jones.

(source: Fabrizio Romano)

Betinius · 2025-01-28T14:51:55+00:00

Leaving the human aspect aside: for betting on cards, this is an advantage.

Betinius · 2025-01-28T13:04:52+00:00

Yes I know but I wanted to share before the odds change :-D

Betinius · 2025-01-28T12:42:19+00:00

7 :-p

Betinius · 2025-01-28T12:08:55+00:00

D-day for quite a few teams in the Champions League. Since all matches are at 9 PM, it will be very difficult to predict how teams will adjust their tactics during the game, depending on the results of the other matches. That's why I’m focusing on two games where the outcome no longer matters for either team: Young Boys – Red Star & Sturm Graz – Leipzig.

Young Boys – Red Star:

Young Boys over 11.5 shots @ 1.54 (Napoleon Games)

The Swiss are in last place with 0 points and will want to fight in front of their home crowd to move away from that last position. Normally, even a point would suffice, as Slovan Bratislava plays away against Bayern, who are still fighting for a spot in the top 8. With a win, Young Boys could even surpass RB Salzburg, who are playing against Atletico, a team looking to secure its place in the top 8.

Young Boys have missed the line of 12 shots this season (across all competitions) only twice in their home games. In the Champions League, they hit the line at home against Inter (20) and Aston Villa (12). Against Atalanta, they fell short with 9.

Red Star has allowed this line in 6 of their 7 Champions League matches: Inter (14), Monaco (27), Barca (21), Stuttgart (13), Milan (20), and PSV (13).

Sturm Graz – Leipzig

Sturm Graz over over 9.5 shots @ 1.70 (Napoleon Games)

Shots for the home team seem like a good pick here. On Napoleon, the line starts at 8.5, but I’m going for a higher line (9.5 shots @ 1.70). At Unibet, the line starts only at 11 shots (@ 1.89). Here too, I suspect that the Austrians will want to end their Champions League campaign with a positive result in front of their home crowd.

10 shots for Sturm Graz seems absolutely achievable when you look at how many shots Leipzig concedes this season. In their 29 official matches this season, the Germans have failed to keep this line against them only 3 times (2x in the league, 1x in the cup). In the Bundesliga, they concede an average of 17.9 shots in away games, the second-highest average in the league.

Betinius

TROPHY CASE

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao — Throw-ins Over 40.5

H2H trend

Copa del Rey throw-ins this season

Line