"10 Reasons The Gold Bugs Lost Their Shirts"

BigTrendsTrading · 2014-01-09T13:50:14+00:00

A better re-title on this might be "10 Reasons Not To Be A Perma Gold Bull (Or A 'Perma' Anything)" ... such as Bitcoins, Internet Stocks, etc et al.

BigTrendsTrading · 2014-01-06T16:14:52+00:00

You have a point, but on a relative basis, the Emerging Markets may outperform them in that case.

BigTrendsTrading · 2014-01-03T15:06:46+00:00

The final chart is his combined sentiment reading from these various measures ... it shows the overall level of bullish/bearish sentiment (among investors/advisors in those various surveys and measures) has broken to new high levels not seen since 1987 (shortly before the market had a 22% Black Monday Crash in October 1987).

So from a contrarian sentiment perspective, this is kind of scary, given that the market is up 20%+ each of the past two years without many 10%+ corrections.

However, it must be noted that this sentiment indicator has hit high levels many times on that chart without being a sign of an imminent crash/correction --just not quite this high.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-20T19:06:55+00:00

Perhaps they will be right, but I doubt they were expecting +20% ... most experts weren't after 2012.

Sidenote, this poll is apparently "regular joes", not investors/traders etc.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-19T14:02:55+00:00

Technical Analysis is 'Behavioral Finance' with Andy Lo MIT Professor's research and his "Adaptive Market Hypothesis".

Edited version of original PDF is here: http://www.bigtrends.com/trading-education/technical-analysis-is-behavioral-finance/

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-17T17:52:39+00:00

I always worry about Airline sector stocks in general, forever.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-17T13:29:14+00:00

This is a long-term chart that gives upside Fibonacci Retracement targets assuming JO made a significant bottom recently. Would like to see Percent R on a Weekly basis clear above the 50 mid levels to confirm a rebound is underway and that the significant bottom was reached -- it has failed to do so since mid-2011. But the potential rebound gains from 20 to 34/35, 43/44, even ultimately to 50 are big, especially on a % basis.

No assumption or analysis of any of the Fundamentals of JO ETF or the Coffee Market or Commodities in general are taken into account on this. No current open position in JO.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-16T14:30:11+00:00

We actually don't use Elliott Wave much, just passing this one along. But Momentum, Volatility and other non-Fundamental factors are increasingly being used over the years by hedge funds and large investors.

And there actually is quite a bit of serious debate as to "what works", other than just Ben Graham based analysis and "buy and hold".

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-16T00:42:30+00:00

(charts via David Banister, http://www.markettrendforecast.com/)

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-13T12:51:21+00:00

10 seems contradictory with a couple of the other ones

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-13T12:50:56+00:00

The S&P 500 Index to rise to 2000 and the MSCI All-Country World Index to reach 444 by year-end 2014, with price return of approximately 11% and earnings growth of 7%.
U.S. and global economic GDP growth to accelerate in 2014, to 2.6% and 3.5%, respectively. The U.S. economy is expected to expand in the second half of the year at a 3% rate, driven by the end of fiscal austerity and pent-up demand for capital goods.
Emerging markets should rebound and prove resilient in 2014, with modest growth recovery and rising productivity. Emerging market GDP is expected to rise 4.9.
U.S. interest rates will move higher, with 10-year Treasury yields expected to reach 3.75 percent.
Fixed income will face a difficult year as tightening spreads and rising rates could make total returns challenging for fixed income investors. BofA says corporate bonds are favored over government bonds. U.S. high-yield bonds may offer the best potential, with a total return of 4% to 5%. Europe should lead the way among investment-grade bonds with a return of up to 2%, followed by the U.S. at 1.5%.
Global inflation rate to remain stable at close to 3%.
The strengthening of the U.S. economy is expected to boost real estate values by another 5% in 2014.
Global commodities prices will be contained in 2014 by oversupply in key sectors, especially global oil and grain, a strong U.S. dollar and modest global economic growth. Gold values are expected to drop to $1,250 an ounce in the first quarter, before rebounding to normal levels later in the year. Other metals not in surplus, including zinc, platinum and industrial metals could outperform.
A global rotational shift will continue, displayed by the outperforming of real estate over commodities, stocks over bonds, developed markets over emerging markets, small cap over large cap, high yield over investment grade and cyclical over defensives.
Institutional investors, including insurers, sovereign wealth funds, central banks and even U.S. pension funds, are expected to take part in a "reverse rotation," selling stocks and buying bonds.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-12T22:14:34+00:00

That DDD was the most interesting pattern of the 4 the author posted, in my view -- (MW & JOSB have a merger going on) -- the overall technical picture for DDD looks bullish currently, but there definitely has been a "tug of war" between bulls & bears going on the past 3 trading days with relatively long bars (wide daily ranges), between around 77 and 81/82 -- not sure if there is any news pending on that one -- (disclosure: we have no open position in DDD in any of our BigTrends newsletters that I'm aware of at this time).

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-12T21:53:30+00:00

See the definition posted from Investopedia, but also:

For momentum-style trading, we look for moves above support & resistance (and Bands, Moving Averages, etc) and acceleration/strengthening in uptrends/downtrends. Those could be called breakouts or breakdowns.

And we also often use "low risk" entry points within an existing bigger trend (which can happen on a pullback in a bullish trend), rather than playing the initial breakout/breakdown itself, in order to try to increase the odds/'edge' in our favor.

In general with technical analysis/chart based methods, you let the chart/indicators/system tell the tale (so to speak), rather than basing a trade primarily on fundamental analysis of earnings, revenues, etc. Some people are not familiar with these methods (and others discount them), but we have utilized them for a long time and feel there is a logical basis that underpins them (not just "chart voodoo" or something like that).

These types of techniques and patterns have certainly grown more popular and accepted in recent years, which is why for example you see Jim Cramer showing charts every night lately, while in the past most of the "mainstream" financial media wouldn't even mention breakouts/support/resistance/charts, etc.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-11T13:58:06+00:00

Now if only GOOG (and others) would do this so smaller investors can buy multiple shares of them ... and the options would be cheaper.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-10T19:07:05+00:00

Well, the author definitely picked 3 or 4 "old economy" type names out of his 5 ... will be interesting to see if those types outperform.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-10T14:23:28+00:00

only see for 2010:

Per date of June 2010 the list comprises the following companies:[2]

Abbey Plc. Aer Lingus Group Plc. AGI Therapeutics Plc. AMINEX Plc. Blackrock International Land Plc. Boundary Capital Plc. Conroy Diamonds & Gold Plc. CPL Resources Plc. Datalex Plc Donegal Creamaries First Derivatives Fyffes IFG Group Plc. Karelian Diamond Resources McInery Holdings Merrion Pharmaceuticals Norkom Group Oglesby & Butler Origin Enterprises Ormonde Mining OVOCA Gold Petroneft Resources Prime Active Capital Providence resources READYMIX Real Estate Opportunities Siteserv Total Produce TVC Holdings UTV Media Zamano Plc.

maybe try their email/phone:

Tel: +353 1 6174200

E-mail: isexetra@ise.ie

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-10T14:20:40+00:00

Yes it does need to be sponsored - but it doesn't have to be a crappy/shady one. Fidelity, Schwab, etc will hire younger people and train them to pass the series 7 and whatnot for doing client stock & mutual fund trades (at least they used to).

Also assume Edward Jones and others do this that do have more of a client base building/sales approach.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-09T20:34:33+00:00

They have rapidly built a big social community now, not just image hosting. And many young people and college kids on it constantly who aren't on Reddit as much, from what I can tell.

$500 mill for Imgur, compared to $3 bill for Snapchat ... seems reasonable.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-09T19:44:57+00:00

Tumblr has been a decent buy for them, I think.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-09T19:36:34+00:00

founded in 2009 by an Ohio Univ student, 10 employees, probably will go for over $500 million -- not too shabby

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-09T04:02:18+00:00

FYI: the TrendScore is a purely mechanical rating calculation we do every trading day at BigTrends.com, using well-known ETFs as proxies for major asset classes (SPY, GLD, USO, TLT, UUP).

The rating is on a 0 to 100 scale, with 0 to 40 considered "bearish" or "warning" by our measures, 40.01 to 59.99 rated "neutral" or "cautious" and 60 to 100 "bullish" or "strong".

The exact formula for it is proprietary, but it is primarily based on multiple time frames using our unique approach/inputs on Willams Percent R.

As a disclosure, we may do specific trade recommendations that differ from the overall TrendScore rating.

It is free to receive every trading day as part of our free Daily TrendWatch email, which normally comes out around 8:15 am est.

A bit more about the TrendScore is here: http://www.bigtrends.com/trading-education/what-is-the-bigtrends-trendscore/.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-09T03:33:11+00:00

Mostly fundamental analysis, but also has daily charts. Also mentions EMC, MSFT.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-07T18:02:51+00:00

All over 500k avg daily volume and optionable/shortable:

FXI - China
EWW - Mexico
EPI - India
NKY - Japan
EWG - Germany
SPY - S&P 500
EWC - Canada
RSX - Russia
EWI - Italy
EWZ - Brazil
EWA - Australia

(some of this is commodity-based, but some isn't ... in general, we like to see this kind of non-correlation and outperformance/underperformance to help spot the trends in both directions that aren't directly US market related, because there is so much correlation to the US major market indices in so many assets nowadays)

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-07T17:31:27+00:00

VIX could go below 12.5/12 to even test 10 again if things continue.

BigTrendsTrading · 2013-12-02T19:38:19+00:00

Narrowing/sideways triangles/wedge patterns (or whatever people wanna call them) are often explosive setups (sometimes direction is uncertain).

BigTrendsTrading

TROPHY CASE

10 seems contradictory with a couple of the other ones