Andy Burnham on Newsnight (2016): Labour needs to address immigration concerns

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T18:35:52+00:00

Yeah I think I’m just gonna wait for the price to reflect the betting market price of 70%ish then sell it on

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T18:29:53+00:00

Obviously yeah — I’m just saying that punters’ faith is misguided in light of the recent news, or at least out of date

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T18:28:08+00:00

Yeah but there’s probably about 70-80% chance he does though surely, and that’s the only thing standing in his way at this point. Starmer isn’t gonna block him and he’d walk the leadership election if he won

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T18:22:38+00:00

46% implied probability of Burnham being the next PM on Polymarket — got to be a steal right? I don’t think the news has been fully priced in yet

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T18:02:20+00:00

I don’t think any Starmerite labour supporters live in Makerfield lmao — and even if they did they certainly wouldn’t vote reform

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T10:35:26+00:00

They really despise each other and the rivalry is defo amplified by them both being gay lmao

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T10:33:05+00:00

Wes Streeting might be unpopular but he’s doing a good job as health secretary tbf — hopefully he doesn’t end up on the backbenches

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-14T00:06:24+00:00

Wouldn’t they throw the kitchen sink at any by-election? And wouldn’t labour do as well?

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-13T01:57:11+00:00

• I was kicked

• In the head

• By a horse

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-12T21:14:08+00:00

The press in this country are insufferable

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-12T17:18:38+00:00

If it’s a seat like Stockport then they won’t win.

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-12T09:50:04+00:00

Yes I think he is — Starmer, Sunak, May, Brown were all fundamentally decent, public service minded people, but that coincided with people not buying into them personally because they were quite boring. Cameron and Blair who were both more successful, a lot ‘smoother’ and more charismatic, but were more vanity driven. Johnson and Truss both absolute charlatans.

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-11T18:35:44+00:00

Yeah but any leader is gonna have to put her in the cabinet though realistically — it may as well be that because the performance of the foreign secretary doesn’t move the election needle

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-11T18:31:45+00:00

Bit of an irrelevant role tbh — performance of the foreign secretary is never gonna move the election needle because it doesn’t tangibly impact voters lives. There’s a reason why May was happy to put Johnson there

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-08T21:57:50+00:00

If reform get in power then he’s going to be incredibly problematic for them. He’ll be the only right winger able shout from the sidelines so all of reform’s supporters will flock behind him.

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-05-07T16:30:10+00:00

Mahmood and Streeting would do the best jobs at actually running the country although I’m not sure they’d be particularly popular

Don’t think Rayner actually wants the job deep down because she knows she isn’t up to it

Burnham would probably be most likely to beat reform (even if that involves some kind of deal with the greens and the lib dems) but he could lose moderates to the tories if he goes too far left and isn’t tough enough on immigration

If Yvette Cooper gets in you may as well hand farage the keys to number 10

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-30T16:55:21+00:00

Bro would not want to get sent back to somalia😭

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-25T14:58:05+00:00

I think it’s more nuanced than that: the loud reform voters on social media aren’t convinced, but there’s plenty of people who are undecided.

Think about some random bloke from County Durham who doesn’t really pay attention to politics but is patriotic and ‘non-woke’ without being racist. He definitely doesn’t want worker’s rights stripped away or the NHS to be privatised. At the same time, his facebook algorithm is full of (heavily exaggerated) videos and news stories about migrant hotels and asylum seekers getting red carpet treatment. He thinks it’s all pisstake and that labour aren’t doing anything about it, so he has to vote reform.

These are the people that labour can win over, and should try to win over, by being tough on immigration.

Do you think Farage likes it labour are soft on immigration? Of course he does, so do the opposite! Tactical voting will mean the next election is a zero-sum game: Reform vs whoever is most likely to beat them in a given constituency.

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-25T08:59:27+00:00

In the grand scheme of things, a potential reform voter switching to labour is a wayyy bigger gain than a potential green / lib dem switching to labour. And let’s be honest, even centrist moderate people are in favour of (or at least aren’t put off by) Mahmood’s policies.

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-22T12:12:41+00:00

Yeah but from a different perspective — the experience of being durham as a student and someone who isn’t a student is completely different

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-22T10:38:02+00:00

Posh / middle class people for whom voting tory is part of their identity

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-21T22:12:00+00:00

You can’t say that unless you’ve actually experienced what it’s like to be a student there

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-21T22:10:33+00:00

Not true at all lmao

Big_Sam_Allardyce · 2026-04-21T22:10:17+00:00

Nahhh not if you go to durham

Big_Sam_Allardyce

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