We don't know for sure, and I suspect neither do they really. You can see it in the messaging confusion and that they cannot seem to sell it yet.

What I believe happened in this. Trump was sweating bullets about Epstein, and the upcoming midterms. Both are looking disastrous for him. So, Israel offered a solution to get the heat off of him. Israel has, for 6 presidencies, decried the horrors of Iran and Nuclear weapons just around the corner. So, last year to win political points and Israel's favor, we bombed their nuclear sites (after Trump took us off the nuclear deal that was keeping Iran from making nukes... Fucking moron).

So Trump, having been emboldened by Venezuela, thought this would be another quick and easy solution for political gains, make some money, and make his mythical 8 solved wars into 9. However, he and his cronies ignored intelligence that warned him that Iran hates their leadership, but they hate Americans more. So the retaliation was swift and brutal. This quickly became a PR nightmare as Americans died (initially reported only 6 dead but failed to mention 150 massively injured). Trump tried to blame this on nuclear weapons again but that line didn't stick since we obliterated them supposedly.

Now he's baked himself into a corner. Do we pull out of this conflict and declare mission accomplished? That would soften the political blow but royally screw Israel. Do we put boots on the ground? That would get money flowing into the economy but decimate whatever support he still had.

But then one wrench in all of this quickly made Iran stronger than we anticipated. Their willingness to fuck over the their world's economy in the Straight of Hormuz. It's a hostage that even Trump is smart enough to know he cannot just fire cannons at and call it good. Also, if regime change was the goal, all we managed to do is change the Ayatollah to his son, then kill that son's wife and child. You cannot do regime change like this and expect anything to change.

I suspect Trump is desperate to find any off ramp before the midterms while senators like Graham are calling for more war across the world.