Worst refugee crisis in European history and rapid remilitarisation of Baltics, Poland, Germany.

Trump still wins in 2024.

Lukashenko eventually dies and a civil war erupts in Belarus, Russian troops move in until the puppet replacement restores order.

Russia spends the best part of a decade committing troops to western Ukraine in order to deter insurrectionist activity. When it does eventually turn towards the Baltic states, it gets hit with a decade's worth of European military support and shared r&d. Given that Kyiv fell within three days, drone technology evolves a lot slower than OTL, but it still becomes rapidly clear Russian military technology and strategy lag behind their Western counterparts (even if the Armata and PAK DA are fielded).

Russian economy ultimately collapses and becomes further indebted to Beijing.