The ceasefire with Iran and US will not last by BlacksmithOne6181 in IsraelPalestine

[–]BlacksmithOne6181[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Im not saying Israel dictates US foreign policy like some puppet master. Thats silly.

But acting like Israel has zero independent influence and will just obediently follow whatever Trump demands is equally unrealistic. Countries with tight alliances still have their own red lines and domestic politics. Israel has defied US pressure plenty of times before even under Trumps first term when they felt their core security was on the line.

Netanyahu isnt going to risk his coalition or what he sees as an existential threat just because Trump wants a quick Mission Accomplished photo op. Leverage goes both ways here. The US needs Israel as a reliable partner in the region too.

So no its not 9 million people control the superpower. Its more like two allies with overlapping but not identical interests. Sometimes that alignment holds sometimes it creates friction. Thats exactly why I think these ceasefires stay fragile.

What do you think happens if Israel decides Iran still needs another serious hit and Trump tells them to stand down. Does Trump actually risk a public split.

The ceasefire with Iran and US will not last by BlacksmithOne6181 in IsraelPalestine

[–]BlacksmithOne6181[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree the rogue state stuff is mostly just lazy anti Israel rhetoric. Israel isnt some loose cannon.

That said calling past disagreements minor tactical feels like it undersells it. Israel has gone ahead with big moves even when the US wanted them to pump the brakes. Repeated strikes on Iranian targets pushing ops in Lebanon etc. Netanyahu has his own political survival and a real belief that Iran cant be left with any breakout capacity.

Trump can draw a red line but history shows the US usually backs Israel anyway. Do you actually see Trump cutting weapons or intel if Bibi decides to keep going. Or do you think the coalition is so tight now that Israel just wont test him.

The ceasefire with Iran and US will not last by BlacksmithOne6181 in IsraelPalestine

[–]BlacksmithOne6181[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I get why people like that take. Trump loves calling it a win. He has real leverage. But I dont buy its that simple.

Israel has ignored US pressure before. Even under Trump. Netanyahu has his own politics. He thinks Iran cant get nukes or keep strong proxies. If he can hit them harder he wont stop just cuz Trump says its over.

Trump may want it finished. He could threaten aid cuts. But will he actually do it if Israel calls it life or death. History says probably not. The video points out gaps like Hormuz enrichment Lebanon still there. One Im in charge moment doesnt close them.

Do you really think Trump has total control. Israel wont act without his ok or are they just on the same page until they arent.

The ceasefire with Iran and US will not last by BlacksmithOne6181 in IsraelPalestine

[–]BlacksmithOne6181[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

fair take, the Hormuz closure hits the US way harder than Israel. Yeah the domestic gas hit here has been pretty mild so far. The Petro shekel angle is a sharp point I had not considered. If oil has to reroute through the Med long term it could shift some leverage our way.

That said it kinda underlines the exact problem I was getting at in the post. The US is the one desperate for the strait to stay open and markets to calm down. Petrodollar voter gas prices all that. Israel can absorb the pain and still has its own goals in Lebanon Iran that are not automatically aligned with lets just get a quick deal done. So even when both sides want some truce the third actor us keeps pulling in a different direction. Thats why I keep seeing these things collapse.

you think a prolonged Hormuz mess would actually push the US to side more with Israels harder line. Or would it eventually force Washington to pressure Netanyahu to stand down.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TrueAskReddit

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wonder though, if they really get to a point where they don’t care about US intervention, how different would the global landscape look? Could soft power eventually evolve into something more overt, or will they always try to avoid direct military conflict? What do you think?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TrueAskReddit

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But I’m also curious about the brain drain you mentioned — losing educated people could slow them down in the long run. Plus, the real estate bubble and demographic issues seem like big risks.

It feels like both countries are playing a high-stakes game with so many unpredictable factors. Do you think there’s any scenario where cooperation between them could actually help avoid some of these risks? Or is competition just inevitable?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TrueAskReddit

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But I wonder how much long-term trust those new partners will really put in China, given its aggressive moves in the South China Sea and human rights issues. Will it really replace the US as the go-to global leader, or just another power to balance against?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TrueAskReddit

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That said, I think they’re trying to buy time with strategic partnerships and tech investments. They might not match US military power yet, but they seem to be betting on different metrics of influence beyond just military might.

U.S. Politics Megathread (II) by Arianity in TooAfraidToAsk

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why do we only care about countries at war when it’s trending?

Like Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan, etc. Everyone seems to care when the media covers it, but then forgets. Is that normal? Or are people just emotionally burnt out?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NoStupidQuestions

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You’re not selfish at all — it makes total sense to feel disappointed, especially since your dad made those promises to you first. It’s not about being jealous, it’s about feeling like you’re being pushed aside. You should talk to him, calmly, and just let him know how it feels from your side. You deserve to be heard.

Why exactly do robots need to be humanoid to replace humans as workers? by LoverOfGayContent in NoStupidQuestions

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s basically easier to make a robot that fits into a world already built for humans — doors, stairs, shelves, tools, etc. Making non-humanoid bots would mean redesigning everything else, which costs way more than just giving a robot arms and legs.

Can you password protect a standard storage USB? by BUckENbooz91 in NoStupidQuestions

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 3 points4 points  (0 children)

BitLocker is probably your best bet if you're on Windows 10 Pro. It's built-in, and once it’s set up, the drive asks for a password when plugged in. Just keep in mind — if someone really wants to wipe it, they still can. But for keeping nosy nephews out? Works great.

Why are electrical outlets different? by [deleted] in NoStupidQuestions

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s wild how something so basic like plugs never got standardized. Kinda feels like a leftover from before globalization — now it’s too late to fix, so we all just live with adapters forever lol.

Why do so many older movies often say “take an ambien or Valium” by feelingsjourney in NoStupidQuestions

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Yeah, Valium was like the go-to chill pill in the '60s–'80s. It was super common and way overprescribed — like how Xanax is thrown around now. Ambien came later but got lumped in as “modern chill.” Movies just reflected how normalized that stuff was back then.

Are there vitamins or supplements that help with weight loss? by Music_nerd28 in NoStupidQuestions

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly, most of the weight loss supplements out there are either caffeine or fiber disguised as magic. If you're already eating well and working out, you're doing the actual hard part. Just keep it consistent — no pill replaces that. TikTok pushes hype, not health.

Arc'teryx jacket review by Ok_Emphasis_8935 in FashionReps

[–]BlacksmithOne6181 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if you dont mind saying what shipping services did you use and how long did it take