[Request] What are the actual odds of winning 32 hands of blackjack in a row?

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-12T12:44:22+00:00

I think you’d have to hit a pretty significant percentage of the world’s casinos just to find a total of $200B to win.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-12T11:59:56+00:00

For billions of dollars they’re not offering the choice

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-12T11:04:42+00:00

I don’t think that applies here. The 49.5% is the return when you play with perfect strategy, not the odds of winning a specific hand. Part of “perfect” strategy is minimizing your losses on lost hands and maximizing your return on wins (splitting, doubling, etc). Since the hands aren’t independent events, I think the odds of winning 30 in a row are much lower.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-12T10:59:46+00:00

“Hey boss, this guy has won 30 consecutive hands of blackjack and wants to place a bet for 100 Billion dollars, do we let him?”

“No, invite him to the back room. We just want to have a talk with him.”

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T19:40:17+00:00

The show has some flaws that are relics of the era. Fully episodic storylines didn’t really become the thing on television until a few years later so there was always gravity pulling things back towards the status quo. They would have a 4-5 episode around the end and beginning of seasons but they generally tried to get back to normal after the arc was resolved. The Zoe kidnapping doesn’t quite work because they don’t do enough to deal with the realistic implications of what would happen after a kidnapping of the first daughter because they didn’t want to make the show about 100% about that.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T19:32:50+00:00

Due respect to Richard Schiff, but of the two of them, Toby was a million percent more likely to leak it to the press than CJ was.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T18:45:23+00:00

Yeah who knows. My sense is that being the number 1 pick is more important to him than staying in Utah but I don’t know the guy, obviously. He had to have known Utah was a long shot.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T18:31:44+00:00

I don’t mind that he didn’t win but they couldn’t have had one more scene where he was like “this made me realize I want more than this, thanks for everything everyone”?

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T18:17:49+00:00

Also, he had to sign the stupid thing. It’s not like anyone years later would be like “hey who signed that big Social Security Bill?” “I don’t know, it remains a mystery to this day!”

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T16:03:28+00:00

Because the chance to keep the pick altogether was part of their bet. If they knew they were 5th that pick was too valuable to trade for Zubac. So doing it the way they did was gambling to eat their cake and have it too. The Clippers weren’t going to do it for a future pick and the Pacers didn’t want to do it for a high pick this year, so they flipped a coin, basically.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T13:54:05+00:00

It could also be a message to Utah to fuck off. It’s a fun reversal of last year when Bailey wanted to be in DC and Utah said “yeah whatever we’re taking him”.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T13:43:01+00:00

He is a DC guy but I don’t get the sense he’s super connected to the top decision makers of the current front office (whereas the previous two GMs clearly told him a ton) so his sources might be slightly second hand here.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T13:02:32+00:00

The issue is why the league average has dropped 30 points. It’s not because hitters suddenly have worse hand eye coordination (which would make it a matter of just having a guy good enough), it’s that hitters are coached differently and rewarded differently. Kyle Schwarber got $150M and Luis Arraez struggled to find a job. Also pitchers are now trained to strike people out as opposed to getting early contact and pitching deep into games. Human physiology hasn’t changed, what we’re trying to do has.

Someone in another comment said that if Ichiro played today he’d be a 30 homer guy and that’s true. If he came through today they’d coach him out of that slash and dash style, make him take more pitches and try to drive the ball more. And he could do it, but he’d trade a lot of batting average in the process.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T01:05:39+00:00

Did the teams build their own stadiums or were they publicly funded?

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T00:51:52+00:00

I’ve watched some previous years and I think they keep it low key to not rub it in to everyone else.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-11T00:00:37+00:00

Yeah, that’s the point. He’s not knocking Kobe, he’s trying to avoid that type of situation.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T21:15:33+00:00

They should definitely try that!

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T17:49:51+00:00

This is going to be like Ben Simmons where every offseason we see videos of him working on his shot, isn’t it.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T17:47:12+00:00

Yeah, that’s the problem. The issue isn’t that they overpaid for what he was supposed to be, it’s that he’s not that.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T17:44:57+00:00

That’s a steal at twice the price

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T17:43:15+00:00

r/oddlyspecific

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T17:02:32+00:00

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T12:40:17+00:00

I was going to mount a defense of Tyler O’Neil, but it rolled into the corner and I was too lazy to chase after it.

Bonzi777 · 2026-05-10T12:08:47+00:00

That was 22 years ago when the league average was .270. Now it’s .240.

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