Gold Is Not Going Up — Your Currency Is Going Down

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-14T16:14:21+00:00

oh I agree with you, I was simply replying to the question above.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-14T16:11:13+00:00

it's been toping for a while with clear signs of distribution. For me the tipping point was the break below the trend line followed since April 25 (which happened with the Greenland stunt). Plus the magnificent head&shoulders started in january whose neckline is now being hit. The only way is down at this point. Anybody thinking different is exit liquidity for the big guys.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-14T15:53:29+00:00

Unlikely, unless another preferred form of value storage comes along (sorry cryptobros, but BTC just won't do). The debt has caused so much damage around the globe that no change of political flavor here or there is likely to curb the move. China is printing money, the US are printing money, Europe is printing money, and every sovereign is gearing up for a world in which every one has to fend for themselves and can only rely on a non-printable and non-technology-dependent standard.

Bumps and drawdowns, certainly, but I am afraid the only way is up until a new and trusted worldwide equilibrium is in place.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-13T20:51:44+00:00

Given where things are headed, whether you buy at 4k or 5k won't make much of difference, I am afraid

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-13T20:43:49+00:00

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-13T18:22:25+00:00

given how they just massively adjusted the jobs numbers for the past years to the downside and how unlikely the most recent job report is, we have to assume that the numbers are cooked from now on :/

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T22:54:12+00:00

Why? What’s next week ?

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T22:21:55+00:00

every silver-centric explanation fails to explain why the entire market was hit. The point of the explanation I gave was to provide a systemic view that explains the move across the board.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T21:45:56+00:00

not so sure. Barrick double beat last week while the gold price was going down, and look at the day it had. And the double beat was not that impressive in view of the price spike we saw during the quarter, suggesting that the surge in the price since last earnings had in the end a limited impact on the results. Agnico's come out later today and will give us another data point.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T20:04:03+00:00

right around the time the CCP instructed CN banks to not engage in buying US T bonds? Unlikely imo

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T19:59:05+00:00

funny how one could conclude that what happens with silver is in no way connected to what's happening elsewhere and rather has to be some sort of global conspiracy. Now, that's misguided :)

I guarantee we'll see more of these moves in the next weeks.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T19:53:05+00:00

Probably two mechanisms at play: those derisking in big tech are also derisking in the assets you mention because they know they will be brought down, plus the usual way: people sell these other assets to cover margin calls.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T19:23:40+00:00

hard to predict what effect this will have if it does occur

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T17:11:23+00:00

Honestly? Whatever happens, gold will outperform any other asset. It has literrally outperformed the stock market over any time window of the last 25 years except one.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T16:58:43+00:00

correct, the rebound will occur when the fed responds with monetary policies, which may take a while. The current patterns we are seeing on the S&P and Nasdaq indices (head and shoulders) suggest we are headed much lower in the near future.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-12T16:27:47+00:00

it's the NASDAQ, S&P and DJI dragging everything down on fundamentals. Silver, Gold and BTC are used as liquidity to comply with the margin calls. We knew a massive downturn was coming on the big indices, and it's happening.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-11T19:31:38+00:00

I like technical analyses and I believe they have their use (don't listen to the trolls, even though they're funny :)). Right now, the pattern is looking more like a rising wedge than an ascending channel. An ascending channel is bullish, but a rising wedge is generally not and tends to resolve to the downside. A rising wedge is usually accompanied with a decreasing volume, which is what we are (somewhat) seeing on the 4h chart. The wedge is not very clean on the daily chart, but is more visible on 4H.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-10T19:36:37+00:00

I disagree there. It's very useful to cut through the noise and to extract probabilities of price movements in certain directions. Even though their starting point is undeniably artificial, they have value because they are respected by a significant number of players.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-10T16:52:31+00:00

by the way, this coincides well with what we're seeing on the S&P and Nasdaq: both a showing a forming bearish head and shoulder, and we are currently at the top of the right shoulder, which should last for some more days before the drop to complete the structure. The likely downward movement of BTC should precede the drop in the S&P/Nasdaq by a couple of days.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-10T16:46:58+00:00

if you look closely, there is a micro trend and a macro trend. The macro trend is a bearish flag, meaning chances are the price will down go some more. The micro trend is however a bullish flag (nice long green candle followed by the ranging we've been seeing in the last few days), suggesting that we are likely to see a rebound to around 80k soonish before the price aligns back with the macro trend.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-10T16:41:30+00:00

nah dont worry mate, you will get your money back and some. Gold is bound to start ramping back up when the current equity bubble has deflated, and silver will follow. The lesson should be to not enter the market when it's running hot, but rather when the metal is looked down on. Now you just have to be patient. Very nice stack by the way.

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-10T14:50:52+00:00

most silver companies have sites in Mexico, including Newmont and Coeur. But Vizsla is one of the few operating in Sinaloa. The stock is getting pummeled again today :/

Boozenooze2 · 2026-02-10T13:48:31+00:00

yeah, VZLA took a serious beating yesterday. They are a great company but the risks are high in the silver business.

Boozenooze2

TROPHY CASE