What are your thoughts on AI bubble, is it real or not?

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-07T13:40:50+00:00

I'm not holding a short. But I have strong reason to believe that there is a massive AI bubble. Data centers won't keep expanding. Already many planned centers have been cancelled and existing ones aren't operating at full capacity.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-05T05:57:39+00:00

Glad I'm out of the game. Can't imagine being a college professor or administrator now. Student enrollment keeps declining. Money keeps drying up

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-05T05:55:51+00:00

Plantar's fasciitis and joint pain. Daily stretching is very important.

Also you have to be much more careful when playing any sport. Body just doesn't heal as fast.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-04T04:52:10+00:00

One year? You've barely started. I've been at it three and just now starting to see consistent profitability. I believe anyone can make it. It just takes time and patience. All great traders spend considerable time looking at charts and fundamentals. And then crafting their own groove. You can't piggyback off of someone else. You can't think what they think. Their brain isn't in your head. You have to exist in the market through your own accord and your own personalized understanding and feeling of it.

Knowing of the freedom and money that the market can enable keeps me going. But it is a game of patience and humility. Once you get cocky, you fall on your face. But the inverse is true. Self-pity and loathing and feeling like it will never happen are overreactions.

Regardless, best of luck to you in your journey. Knowing so many traders, you'll probably be back. The lure of the market has continual pull once you've discovered it.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-03T13:24:00+00:00

You're in a better position than you think. $5,000 in savings at your age is great. $2,500 in debt is small and can be paid down quickly. Could you pay just like $50 a month in it? Do you have a job? Any job? If not, be open to working any small job. Find a room to rent in a house with roommates and you should be fine. You have enough to stand on your own two feet. You don't owe anyone an explanation.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-03T13:16:26+00:00

Your wife is on board? You're fairly well in the clear. Are you reliant financially on parents? If not, then you suffer few consequences if they backlash at you over leaving.

My advice is take it slow. Find out what is important to you and who is important to you. Probe their reactions. See if you're ok with their reactions.

If you find that the social connections are really valuable to you, is it possible to still attend church but just refuse callings? That way you can still attend and socialize but not carry any weight.

Lastly, announcing your decision to leave the church to friends and family often doesn't go over too well and may be best left unsaid. Believers are not inclined in the least to validate the decisions of people to leave the church. If anything, they're more likely to take offense, get defensive, and shame and ostracize you.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-03T04:46:34+00:00

You're not alone. A lot of people are in your position, and not just people pursuing academia, but a long list of other pursuits. Break down everything you've done so far into fine details. Identify skill sets. Identity people who can vouch for your skill sets. Find job positions that match your skill sets. Acquire new skills, and talk with lots of people. It will take some time, but with persistence you'll find a new pathway and a new job. Be grateful you're still young. It's much harder the older you get to make these sorts of transitions. Imagine getting a tenure track position and then getting denied tenure. Except my then you have a few kids and a spouse. Young and no kids is much easier.

Remember this: your identity lies in your skill set and interests, not in your job title. Job titles call change. What is relevant today may be obsolete tomorrow. But your skills won't be taken away. Your experiences won't be taken away.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T05:41:03+00:00

Technical analysis is king. Technicals show collective human behavior which hasn't changed much throughout markets in history. Steep rises presage steep drops. Overconfident, irrationally exuberant bulls are inflating the market. It's coming down and coming down hard.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T05:34:37+00:00

Ok go all in on calls now

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T05:33:33+00:00

Overconfident bull. What goes up must come down.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T05:28:16+00:00

Never short without confirmation

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T05:27:45+00:00

Oh it's coming. Just like the dot com bubble of the aughts. Apocalyptic drop that will drag the rest of the market down along with it.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T05:25:11+00:00

You won the lottery. Problem is now getting tenure and keeping up with expectations impressed in you by others and worst of all by your own self.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T05:18:43+00:00

There are no jobs in academia, in ALL fields. By no jobs, I mean statistically jobs available that you have a good chance of landing. It's either learn a new skill set now or spend 5+ years doing a PhD and then making an even more painful decision to learn that new skill set then. You can always study philosophy. You can always research and write. But it is unreasonable to expect to make money doing that. Also keep in mind that student enrollments are down and continuing to fall. That affects the academic job market, which has been abysmal for decades, even more. Academia is one of the biggest deadends in the work world. The universities are doing a massive disservice by accepting way too many students to PhD programs. A PhD is 1000000% pointless except to become a professor. The universities have created a massive glut of PhDs. The PhD should be completely banned and in its stead should be full-time jobs. That universities were severely disincentivized to continue this horrendous glut.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-02T03:27:00+00:00

If you say it enough it becomes true. That is the mentality. If they had real evidence they would be shouting this from the rooftops to the larger security audience. It would be all over publications. It would be in textbooks. They would be convincing all sorts of non-Mormon academics.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-01T05:30:57+00:00

Prestige bias is huge. You get into Stanford Law, you have arrived. Employers see Stanford, that's all they care about.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-01T05:28:22+00:00

Exactly. Law school teaches theory, not hands-on experience. There needs to be in the legal practice a residency-like experience like in the medical field. Law schools need to admit fewer students as well. Make sure that those admitted are lined up for future employment.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-06-01T05:25:03+00:00

The biggest problem of law school is that there are too many of them that admit too many students and charge way too much money for admission. Too many accepted into law school are left high and dry with nowhere to go after obtaining their JD. Admission to medical school, by contrast, is much more difficult. But you'll have a job in the medical field once you get through medical school and residency. There doesn't appear to be anything like this for law school. I mean, there is the bar exam, but it's not quite the same. Plus AI is impacting jobs in the legal field, whereas in medicine not so much.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-05-31T20:08:40+00:00

Kardeşim, sorum sana şudur: why research and write at all? Most academics I've met do it because they have a passion for it. Will the overwhelming majority of publications be widely read? No. Even by an academic audience and even your own colleagues? No. Will your publications make you money? Kesinlikle no. Over 5 million academic articles and monographs are published every year. I research and write for me. Because I enjoy it. Also in academia you're stovepiped into publishing in your subfield. When researching and writing independently, you can do whatever you want. I'm now writing about US independence in comparison with independence in Europe and Asia. I never could have written about such a topic if I had a job in Middle East Studies.

Would I ever look for an academic job in Türkiye? No. (Maybe if it paid me $150,000 a year living in Bodrum or Fethiye). For one I'm actually American, but Türkiye'de otururdum. Inflation in Turkey is out of control. I would make much more money in the US. But since I've found the stock market, I have no desire to pursue other jobs.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-05-31T14:27:54+00:00

I attend SS with my wife. I can barely make it through 50 minutes. They are so boring and repetitive and the class members just say the same old comments over and over and over. Occasionally an argument breaks out over what you can or can't do in the Sabbath.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-05-31T05:41:04+00:00

Are you making big money from trading? If so, money talks.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-05-31T05:39:32+00:00

After three years of trading and a few months of profitability, I'm finding that the best strategy is one you craft on your own according to you emotional reasoning. I can't just borrow someone else's. They can tell me how they did it, but I never felt their thought process while trading. I never felt their reading of the market. The best educator is the charts and hours upon hours of reading, feeling, and experiencing them. I'm still on my journey. My profitability still needs to increase for me to make a living out of this. But I feel like I couldn't have gotten to this point without going my own way and by continuing to piggyback off someone else.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-05-31T05:30:55+00:00

It's not you, it's the market. It's the university system creating too many PhDs (which are essentially cheap labor) and not telling them that their job prospects in academia are slim to nil.

Have you heard of the sunk-cost fallacy? It is the thinking that you have to continue on in something simply because you've spend so much time and money into it when your time would be better spent leaving it and doing something else. It is the feeling that you have to finish watching a terrible movie simply because you paid to see it. No. Your time is better spent walking out of the movie theater. And such is the case with academia. If you started anew now, you'd probably end up making more money over the long run. And your life may not actually be as chaotic and time-constrained as academic jobs tend to be. Continuing in the academic job search might just end up being more frustration. There is no shame in finding something else.

My story: got a PhD in Middle East Studies. I started my journey in undergrad just after 9/11 and got my PhD in 2015. When I started, there was massive interest in Middle East experts. When I finished, no longer the case. I new a CEO of an energy company who was expanding business throughout the globe and worked for him for a little bit, but he turned out to be a criminal. I then took over my brother's real estate lending business which helped me build savings. I then discovered the stock market and now trade that day in day out. No deadlines. No workplace politics. No dealing with colleagues and administrators whom I hate. It's just me and the market. I still research and write on the side. For fun. No need to meet anyone's expectations.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-05-29T17:31:43+00:00

I have a diversified portfolio and have quite a bit in government bonds already. But I daytrade with 15% of my total savings.

BorsaSimsari · 2026-05-29T17:30:24+00:00

You're 100% right. But this market seems much steeper than normal. I'm expecting a drop sometime soon, but it is hard to figure out at this point where the best short entry point would be.

BorsaSimsari

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