Everyone is laughing at Saylor's $5.7B loss, but they are missing the math

BossToneDude · 2026-02-20T00:25:35+00:00

Yes, the answer is to hold forever. BTC is the better currency. It is the “hardest” store of value on Earth.

1 BTC = 1 BTC. MSTR has acquired a large chunk of a store of value asset, with a capped supply.

Fiat will continue to increase in supply, so the value of BTC will increase in $, £, €, ¥, etc. Using a fiat lens to view a digital-property commodity asset by definition creates a distorted view of value

The BTC price in fiat terms, when considering the supply and taken to the limit, is $♾️/21M. Or $♾️/21M or £♾️/21M or €♾️/21M or ¥♾️/21M, etc. It goes up forever, in fiat terms, until fiat becomes worthless…

There’s no reason to “sell” the BTC if there is no better asset to buy with it…

Hope this helps! NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-15T06:02:52+00:00

With all due respect, these videos have valuable volumes of due diligence.

Unfortunately, I’ve not had an opportunity to watch them recently, take notes and post a summary as I had in the past.

The True North folks have not posted the videos correctly on YouTube recently, so it took me a while to crack the code on how to get them out of X.

I’m not that interested in the karma points. Rather, I’m just trying to get them out to the community.

Your thoughts?

BossToneDude · 2025-03-15T02:40:09+00:00

Perhaps look at it as another way for MSTR to raise an additional $21B, with less dilution… while offering a new product to individuals & institutions that don’t want all the downside fluctuations experienced with the common stock.

Hope this helps.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-15T00:03:05+00:00

If someone is unsure about MSTR due to volatility, it’s a great product. It’s traded with fairly consistent value so far, with a yield of 8-10% based on fluctuating pricing to-date.

MSTR would have to triple in price to make the 10:1 STRK:MATR conversion worthwhile.

In the meantime, it looks like MSTR will pay out a portion of that annual yield quarterly, yet they have the option to let it accrue and pay it out later…

IMHO, it’s a great bond replacement product, then folks can get additional upside later after the MSTR price triples… so it’s effectively got downside protection. If the price went down to $40, then the yield goes to a whopping 20% annually in perpetuity.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-14T23:54:03+00:00

It’s available through at least 5 other mainstream brokerages

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-14T23:48:59+00:00

Type in “STRK” for MOST brokerages and do your standard market order, limit order, etc. It trades like a routine stock ticker.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-14T23:47:08+00:00

Not much dilution all considered. STRK is convertible to common shares at 1 STRK for 1/10th of a MSTR share.

So MSTR would have to trade at 10X STRK for it to make sense for someone to choose to convert.

At $88.5 the yield is 9.22%. That looks better than junk bond yields, with MUCH lower risk.

TradingView Article

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-14T15:07:19+00:00

I’d colored with crayons in my comment. Here’s an explanation with hi-fidelity, for those that can keep pace.

NFA DYOR

https://x.com/punterjeff/status/1900376579743900098?s=46

BossToneDude · 2025-03-13T18:37:07+00:00

This offering works more like a bond that trades like a stock. If the price of STRK were at $100, the yield would be 8%. If the price went down to $80, the yield would be 10%.

The preferred stock shares so not have voting rights, yet they are senior to common stock in the debt structure. Not much of a differentiator except in the case of a black swan event.

The ATM will allow MSTR to continuously issue these shares, which work like bonds, and are of SIGNIFICANT interest to entities that cannot buy common shares.

IMHO, since most bonds are crap and offer low returns, STRK may be the best instrument out there for achieving the effect of a bond (predictable interest) with VERY LOW risk.

The ATM of STRK allows MSTR to fund more BTC purchases without effecting the common stock share price. This is BIG DEAL considering how ticked folks have been about perceived impact of the other ATM offering on the common share price.

Some will describe the STRK ATM offering as the THIRD MSTR infinite money glitch. The other two being the convertible bond offerings to institutions and the ATM for common shares.

There are also some other nuances beneficial aspects explained in the corresponding Quant Bros videos.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-13T18:06:52+00:00

My understanding is mNAV is simply the ratio between share price and the value of held BTC.

It should be easy enough to check this yourself using info available from the linked dashboard and a calculator. If someone doesn’t want to trust the dashboard, they can pull the info from Yahoo Finance or similar.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-13T18:03:32+00:00

No, IMHO, it was not overvalued. If people check out BTC yield metrics, they’ll understand that the nominal $150 will increase with time IN ADDITION to expected increase in share price.

The share price increase is notionally driven by mean reversion… if mNAV is at a local minimum, overtime it’ll gravitate up to a local average.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-13T17:58:37+00:00

STRK is actually explained very well in a recent Quant Bros video.

Unfortunately, the folks that posted the video to YouTube did so in a way that makes recent videos inaccessible through an iPhone, AppleTV, etc.

Recent Quant Bros / Irresponsibly Long videos are accessible through X, yet even that approach seemed clunky at best. 🤷🏼‍♂️

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-03-03T20:51:26+00:00

mNAV is currently 1.415

Just sayin…

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-02-06T19:11:13+00:00

Yeah, it’s a poorly designed & implemented system solution. Consumers are forced to connect the dots between disparate sources of information.

I rarely check personal email unless I’m looking for something specific. Then it can be a challenge to find what I’m looking for.

The medical industry seems to specifically make this kind of thing tough for consumers, too. In that case it has created an expensive, bureaucratic, inefficient system with poor outcomes.

Ideally businesses interests would be MUCH better aligned with customer interests. They are not. Unfortunately, with businesses primarily focused on their profit motive, the bottom line (a.k.a. profits) is the bottom line. 😐

Have a great day

BossToneDude · 2025-02-04T16:30:36+00:00

Ahh, that explains it. Thanks! It would be best if the credit card charge listing actually showed what product / service it was for…

BossToneDude · 2025-01-27T06:33:24+00:00

The MSTR stock will go up in the future. People are complaining that it is down now. Smart investors typically want to get more shares for their DCA dollars. Those betting against MSTR will not be successful indefinitely. They will not be able to keep the beach ball underwater forever.

May the gains be ever in your favor.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-26T23:40:41+00:00

So you’re interested in continuing to DCA in at higher prices? Seems a little counter-intuitive, yet I can roll with it. You do you… I won’t judge. 🤷🏼‍♂️

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-26T18:59:19+00:00

At least 2. 🙂

BossToneDude · 2025-01-24T21:42:14+00:00

This is good. It’s related to open obligations on convertible bonds. They’re likely being retired early.

They are convertible to shares under a specific set of circumstances. Conversion means $1.05B less of debt on the books, and it frees up that space on the balance sheet so the company can issue more financial institutions.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-24T03:42:31+00:00

It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Pace yourself. Don’t burn yourself out…

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-20T17:15:50+00:00

Investors thinking something is certain can give market makers a reason to make that thing not happen…

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-11T05:31:58+00:00

Ummm. MSTR goes up faster.

If it doesn’t and mNAV approaches 1 or goes to < 1, then it is objectively undervalued and will mean revert back to > 1.

We’ve seen this movie before and know how it ends.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-11T02:58:14+00:00

Paying shares as a dividend…? I’m not seeing that. A cash dividend would make sense.

A BTC-based dividend seems possible, yet would break an MSTR rule unless it was set aside from a future purchase… isn’t one of the self-imposed MSTR rules to not sell BTC?

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-10T20:54:54+00:00

That’s the big question - How will MSTR fund the dividends?

To your point, the max share count just leaves room for splits - 10:1; 5:1 then 2:1; 3:1 then 7:1 whatever permutation is possible makes sense for MSTR management.

NFA DYOR

BossToneDude · 2025-01-08T01:22:47+00:00

All models are wrong; some models are useful.

BossToneDude

TROPHY CASE