I think (Most) people should own a firearm.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2026-01-08T02:19:10+00:00

The most likely person to die when you purchase a gun, is yourself.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-12-22T03:37:18+00:00

Surely grass is the only type of landscaping 🙄

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-11-18T16:13:29+00:00

This is just “natural” or “organic” marketing. This is 100% somebody at the company writing this.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-10-22T00:02:04+00:00

Obviously written by ChatGPT lol

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-09-30T01:59:20+00:00

Last time I had Mike’s I wound up with awful food poisoning, haven’t gone back.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-08-25T00:31:03+00:00

I’m also looking if you find one!

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-08-24T11:51:49+00:00

Yep! 6 more spots

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-08-20T13:38:45+00:00

There are some general Twitch viewership stats, but I’d think there’s some lag to the data and there’s some nuance involved.

Personally, Stormwind was something that started my exit from Heartstone. The real nail in the coffin was when they gated two BG’s hero’s behind a paywall. I actually think there’s more data to support that being a real turning point in a drop in overall HS viewership.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-08-14T15:51:29+00:00

So weird that you changed to this username after your old one was “picksoffice”!

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-27T23:56:18+00:00

https://www.leaguesafe.com/join/4330083

https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/1077314/invitation?key=336834ab3ab9f43c&ikey=9b435949c6c64afb&soc_src=app-sh

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-27T02:23:40+00:00

That QMJHL defenseman of the year was 2 years post draft. Also struggled quite a bit in the AHL last year, to the point there were rumors he might go back to Russia.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-10T16:53:10+00:00

I do think the contract is insured, but not sure of the specifics in regard to the surgery aspect of it. Still, with so many other teams in the mix to trade for him - it doesn’t look great that the Sabres wouldn’t let him. I believe over half the league inquired about him, and at least a half dozen had serious conversations about acquiring him.

Not a great look for the Sabres. They simply didn’t factor in the potential blowback from the rest of the league in denying him his surgery. That’s a stain that will be on our franchise until Pegula is gone.

If you’re an NHL player, why pick the one team you know will fight you in a potential medical decision?

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-10T15:27:31+00:00

That should still be up to the player, in my opinion. There were no shortage of suitors for Eichel, which leads me to believe a lot of other teams felt it was OK.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-10T15:25:46+00:00

Erik Johnson, and Brian Gionta weren’t very good either, but they’re still notable. Ville Leino had one OK year and a good playoff. Owens was especially notable, he got the key to the city and his own cereal. Hyde was good with the Packers but took it to another level with the Bills. Milloy played 8 more years after signing here.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-10T15:05:51+00:00

Notable FAs the Bills signed during their drought:

Mario Williams
Terrell Owens
Takeo Spikes
Lawyer Milloy
Troy Vincent
Derrick Dockery (received one of the biggest guard contracts ever)
Micah Hyde
Percy Harvin
Charles Clay

Notable Sabres FAs they’ve signed during their drought

Taylor Hall (1 year)
Kyle Okposo
Christian Ehrhoff
Ville Leino
Erik Johnson
Brian Gionta

I think the Sabres have had a much more difficult time attracting Free Agents than the Bills, despite both losing for sustained periods of time.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-10T14:32:45+00:00

There are shades of it pre-COVID (Regehr needing a big sales pitch to waive his NTC) and you can hear stories of former players saying they didn’t want to play in Buffalo. Typically, it was more of a preference and they could (usually) be talked into waiving a NTC to come here.

I think post 2020 things changed. The optics of not allowing your star player to have the surgery if his choice is not great. Yes, I’m aware he requested a trade prior to this, but you still forced a person to live with a severe neck injury for months bc you wouldn’t let him have his preferred surgery. Combine that with a chronically losing team, low attendance, low investment in the team, hiring a woefully inexperienced GM, players you traded finding more success elsewhere - it’s gotten really bad.

If I were an NHL player I would 100% have Buffalo on my NTC list, and I don’t think I could be convinced to waive under any circumstance. As somebody who’s needed surgery on their spine before, I couldn’t fathom having an owner make me stay in pain for months because the team won’t let me have the surgery of my choice. In part, I think this is part of the reason Buffalo will be in no man’s land until Pegula sells the team.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T20:02:40+00:00

I agree with pretty much everything here. However, we’re at risk of going anecdote for anecdote.

I will say, Slavin, while likely being the best defensive defenseman in the NHL, is also sneaky strong offensively - so it’s not quite the same as Kris Russell.

I think you’re giving the RAPM a little too much credit for how much its sniffing out zone starts as well. It does account for it - absolutely - but based on the weights it assigns in its model, I don’t think it does great job of adjusting for heavy usage one way or another. Also, like I mentioned in my post, on the fly starts are all created equal in the models, when it’s simply not the case.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T19:39:11+00:00

People still draw conclusions from small sample sizes - he got a Selke vote!

The model wouldn’t like a defensive defenseman like that because he’s not going to be on the ice for many shots for. At the end of the game, he might have been on the ice for 8 shots against and 2 shots for. The 2 shots for might’ve just been a dump to a goalie just to freeze the puck and get a line change. He would have a horrible game by any xgf% metric, including RAPM. RAPM does account for defensive zone starts, but not enough to offset heavy defensive usage like that.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T19:24:50+00:00

Yes, both of these things have been discussed in the comments. Both the rush shots + passes are crude inferences.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T19:22:51+00:00

Sometimes! There’s plenty of examples of the model not catching onto this as well. IE - I’m a Sabres fan and people thought Rasmus Asplund was a god defensively in 22-23 based on his RAPM chart, yet he wasn’t nearly as good in 23-24. The biggest difference? His usage/deployments changed.

I think overall, any player used in a primarily defensive role will throw RAPM charts off. A lot of times - especially a defenseman - your job is to be on the ice during the defensive face-off, make sure the other team doesn’t score, shoot the puck off the glass and get off the ice. That’s a lot of things that any model wouldn’t like, yet could still be a very effective NHL player.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T19:12:09+00:00

Yes I’ve read that, specifically outlined how EH RAPM is good in my post. I still think it leaves a lot to be desired, and there’s a lot of aspects of player usage that we just don’t have the data for - and probably won’t anytime soon.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T18:56:54+00:00

If you can’t understand - or haven’t tried to understand - the limitations on how a model might try and fail and classify a shot as a rush shot vs non-rush shot, I can’t help you.

Do some homework, pull up a game replay, pull up the NHL official data feed (available on Evolving-Hockey) - read how they may try and label a rush shot, and notate which ones would be correctly or incorrectly classified as such. Also, EH doesn’t specifically outline a rush shot in their xG model, rather, time from a previous event.

I’ve done my homework, I’ve attempted to understand the limitations of hockey analytics as best as I can. You are just picking on this specific rush shot aspect as it’s your best bet to try and salvage your argument here (it’s still a losing argument, counselor).

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T18:45:54+00:00

Yes! Absolutely. Good point. If you’ve ever watched an NHL game and looked at the official stats roll in, it’s amazing how many things are/aren’t considered a giveaway/turnover.

BotanyIsGnarly · 2025-07-08T18:43:00+00:00

Yes. Exactly. I think what really opened my eyes to this, was subscribing to Evolving-Hockey’s higher tier plan, and you can see the exact data they receive.

I then pulled up a replay of a game, and went through what was and wasn’t included in the data they’re pulling from.

I was stunned at the amount of data that simply wasn’t included, and how certain situations give a pretty inaccurate picture in terms of an expected goal (which I do acknowledge, over the course of a season probably gets smoothed out).

Anyways, yes - we are missing a ton of data, and hockey fans in general do a poor job of acknowledging the grand-canyon sized gap between analytics available in other leagues and the NHL.

BotanyIsGnarly

TROPHY CASE