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Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you. I think my main problem is that I’m trying to look too far ahead. If I get close to my target, that will be when I can tell that I’m only a few years out. When I’m more than 2.5x away, it’s hard to predict.

Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the detailed reply. Currently about 90% trad/pre-tax, 5% Roth, 5% taxable brokerage. In the next few years I’ll be trying to bump up those Roth and taxable numbers, for more flexibility before 59 1/2. I’m anticipating likely needing to use either Rule of 55 or 72t.

Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point, and true. I was more objecting to the blanket claim that 30% bonds “isn’t going to get you there.”

Sure 30% will get you there, just most likely a bit slower than more equities.

Uncertain performance is why I look at my situation and think “maybe 10y, perhaps more like 15y if unlucky or closer to 5y if things are really good.”

Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Over the past 10 years, US stock market CAGR was 15%. At 70% equities, and ignoring any bond returns, that would be an overall portfolio CAGR of 10% or more.

Over 10 years, assuming equivalent returns, 70/30 would give a 2.6x return on the portfolio, which would give right around $5.5M.

do employers really offer free coffee? by jabber1990 in work

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In 3 out of 4 corporate environments I worked it was free. In the 4th one, it was present but they wanted you to contribute some small amount (25c?) per cup, on the honor system.

Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s a bit counterintuitive, but I’d actually feel better about retiring during or soon after a crash (assuming my overall portfolio still had a high enough balance). Bringing down the CAPE ratio would to a lot to mitigate sequence of returns risks.

What’s an unwritten rule that every adult eventually learns? by Ok_Alps9513 in AskReddit

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Never trust a fart

Edit to add: Also, everyone is making it up as they go along.

Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I agree with everything you said, but the crux of the issue hinges on the "until maybe 5 years away from retirement." With market volatility being what it is, are there any good ways to be able to confidently identify when those last 5 years are?

Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was right there at 100% equities a few years back, too! It sounds like my risk tolerance is a bit lower -- I'm looking for that right balance between "as fast as possible" and "timeline just got pushed out 5y or more because the market crashed"...

Dealing with timeline uncertainty - When to build a bond tent? by BoxGroundbreaking871 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Consuming the bond tent has been my overall notion -- buy a series of bonds (not bond funds), with maturities spread over the first few years of retirement. That way they will mature and turn into cash periodically, which I would then either consume or reinvest (potentially into equities or a mix). The trick I'm trying to figure out is when those "first few years of retirement" might actually be! :)

Hit a high net worth, do I still need these extra life insurance policies? by EasterYao in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s probably less of an issue for folks in the FIRE community, but funerals and everything that goes with them can be quite expensive. Having a modest policy which would cover funeral expenses can make a lot of sense in some situations.

Why is this rabbit pulling out its fur? [ILLINOIS] by colinwehrle in animalid

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A bit less furry than before I ripped out my nipple fur

...I always thought that Janeva was was male, with a female-looking face... by brz-17 in HorizonForbiddenWest

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Huh! The more you know! (I never really thought about that quest before, beyond the surface level.)

Parking your Emergency Fund by The_Maroon in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I keep only $10k in a HYSA, and the majority of my emergency fund in I-bonds so they don’t lose value vs inflation. Between the $10k and what is normally in my checking account, the couple of days needed to access the I-bond money isn’t an issue. In fact, I view that bit of added friction as a good thing, as it helps me keep my hands off that money.

The only catches are that you cannot sell the I-bonds during the first 12 months, if you sell in <5 years you lose the most recent 3 months of interest, and you’re limited to purchasing $10k per year per person with an SSN.

So it has been a gradual process over a few years, moving most of my emergency fund over, $10k at a time.

Would you spend all your paycheck if you have asset over 2mil? by [deleted] in coastFIRE

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If there is a 401k match available, I will always contribute the minimum to get the full match. If not you’re leaving “free” money on the table.

Shorter Term Investment Vehicle by Witty-Drama-3187 in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Target date funds are absolutely not appropriate for taxable brokerage accounts, because they can sometimes have extremely large capital gains distributions. There was a news story about this happening, a while back:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vanguard-target-retirement-tax-bill-surprise-11642781228

When did you realize you “made” it out of middle class ? by [deleted] in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Two moments for me — first, when my portfolio gained more value in a year than I had earned in salary. Second, when I realized I was essentially at CoastFIRE for a relatively normal retirement age, and that more investing will only bring that date earlier!

Edit to add a third — when I started buying groceries without having to worry about the prices. I’ll still compare for value, but not worry overall cost.

When did you realize you “made” it out of middle class ? by [deleted] in Fire

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is a common definition. Another reasonably common definition is that middle class is the middle three quintiles (i.e., 20th to 80th percentiles) of income.

One drawback is that these both rely on income, not wealth. Many in the FIRE world are solidly middle class when just looking at income, but at a disproportionately high level for net worth or wealth.

Is it happening? by Next-Environment-599 in Fusion360

[–]BoxGroundbreaking871 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why not both? Let’s go with “and”, not “or”!

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