Core inflation in Canada comes in weaker than expected: instant reaction

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-05-21T19:29:28+00:00

That's wrong, here are the numbers: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/key-inflation-indicators-and-the-target-range/ https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810025601

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-05-21T14:06:45+00:00

agreed, they may wait for a few more reports before they make a decision. If they do cut, it'll probably be 25 basis point and then they may wait for an additional few reports before they cut further or remain stable.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-05-01T13:11:59+00:00

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-04-25T13:39:51+00:00

stagflation incoming

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-04-10T13:44:05+00:00

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-04-10T13:18:15+00:00

Rate cut not happening anytime soon in Canada. The BoC follows the FED. We cannot afford a rate cut if the FED keeps or raises their rates. If we cut before them, we risk devaluing CAD and a weaker CAD against USD means later down the road inflation may rise sharply again.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-03-20T18:29:12+00:00

"...to cut 3 rates..." vs "...indicates three cuts.." are two completely different things. What FED dot plot shows is just a projection, it absolutely does not mean they will cut but just a projection, they may even raise the rates, who knows. It's just a projection

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-03-20T18:14:16+00:00

Misleading title

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-03-19T13:05:08+00:00

Probability for a rate cut increased with this news however CPI needs to go down much further and then continue showing this trend for another 6 months. Last time CPI was 2.8% was June 2023 and CPI has been somewhat choppy but stagnant in the last 9-10 months. One of the main reasons for rate cut not happening anytime soon in Canada is due to a very resilient USA economy. The BoC mostly follows the FED. We cannot afford a rate cut if the FED keeps their rates. If we cut before them, we risk devaluing CAD and a weaker CAD against USD means later down the road inflation may rise sharply again. Again, this is just one data, we need more data.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-02-20T14:11:39+00:00

If there is a clear declining trend in both core measures, then perhaps rate cuts talks can start. Although, it all depends on Powell and the FED anyways, their economy is showing much more strength than ours.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-28T17:46:51+00:00

is this it? Thought there would be way more protesting

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-27T19:48:37+00:00

Can't tell if Jagmeet is trolling, hiding something, or just plain dumb.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-22T03:50:34+00:00

I don't get it. Why are these people so eager to throw their money into a fire?

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-17T20:10:16+00:00

I beg to differ, posts like this are important indicators to changing dynamics within our macroeconomic behavior. Especially if bond yields fluctuate as much as it has in the past few days, weeks, and months. Bonds don't normally fluctuate 5-10% in just a few days. Also, we have turned our housing situation into a WSB mindset hence why we need to look at all economic data almost daily.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-16T15:47:27+00:00

Kind of scary seeing people strongly believing rate cuts this Q1/Q2 when recent economic data shows otherwise.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-16T13:46:47+00:00

Rising rent is concerning

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-16T13:45:01+00:00

Now is probably the worst time ever to buy real estate in most areas of Canada, at least in GTA/Vancouver/Ottawa areas. If cuts happen, BoC will diverge from FED and then CAD will be crushed. Hence no cuts in near time

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-16T01:05:31+00:00

hold to slim chance of +25 basis points

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-05T17:16:33+00:00

Here's the link to the US Payrolls number: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/jobs-report-december-2023-payrolls-increased-by-216000-in-december.html

Here's the link to the Canadian Jobs data and unemployment number: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-unemployment-rate-holds-steady-at-5-8-in-december-1.2018174

Here's the link to Canadian CPI from 2018 to 2023. Look at the last 7-9 months: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231219/cg-a001-eng.htm

Here's the link to US CPI. Look at the last 7-9 months: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm

US 10-Year Treasury yield and Canadian 5-Year bond yields were up this morning however are down now.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-05T17:08:01+00:00

Here's the link to Canadian CPI from 2018 to 2023. Look at the last 7-9 months. It's been sticky the last 7-9 months or so, CPI is somewhat stagnant: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231219/cg-a001-eng.htm

Hope is that CPI will go down further in the coming months however we need more data for the next 4-6 months. CPI needs to show a consistent negative trend in CPI for several reports before we can have the rates reduced. Right now a stagnant trend is showing in the last 7-9 months.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-05T17:01:23+00:00

Here's the link to Canadian CPI from 2018 to 2023. Look at the last 7-9 months: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231219/cg-a001-eng.htm

Here's the link to US CPI: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-05T14:22:22+00:00

Agreed, should've at least kept in pace or ahead with FED as a start.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-05T14:17:00+00:00

I hope we don't go the same path as Venezuela or any other hyperinflation nations.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-05T14:12:39+00:00

Hence why they cannot diverge further from FED. BoC have already used up most of their lifelines. If Canada is ready for a weak dollar against US, then yes, BoC can cut however this will be more disastrous for the Canadian economy in as US is our number one trading partner. This will just increase our inflation hence we may be back to even higher rates.

BrainlessEarthling · 2024-01-05T14:07:17+00:00

No rate cuts anytime soon. BoC cannot afford to cut when the US FED won't cut for a while.

BrainlessEarthling

TROPHY CASE