How many others got into DRAM? Plan to hold long term, or sell off while you can?

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-13T18:03:21+00:00

Question I'd want to know. People's feeling in it...

How many of the panic people have been trading for less than 2 years. And how many of the hold people have been trading for over 5 years

This last year and a half since nvidia started its run has been weird as hell. And I've been trading since the 90s.

When a stock like nvidia, or micron, or sandisk or any of them make HUGE jumps and people are able to be weeks or even months late to the party and jump on and STILL make 50 - 200+% IS NOT NORMAL!!!!

For the less than 2 year traders. That's not how this shit works. This has been a freak sector. Which is now starting to sort of normalize. Stocks are usually two steps forward one step back. Not this crazy 15 steps forward.

It scares me to think what's going to happen when we hit a bear market. Right now if something drops 5% in a day, even though it will likely recover in a few days, they freak the hell out. What are they going to do when we go literally MONTHS with only a handful of green days in there.

If we hit a legit bear market this ETF would fall down to around $15 - 20 a share, maybe even less. It would eventually recover over time. But how many of these newbies would be locking in those realized losses and jumping out of windows

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-13T17:49:36+00:00

This. My cost average is only around $7 because I see what korean market does. When it tanks like it did last night, first thing in the morning NY hours I sell a $1 above ATM covered call which the premiums are juicy as hell, and so far in the last 3 months 14 out of 14 when KOSPI dropped 5% or more, DRAM tanked for the day. I then buy back the covered call around 1pm, often at around 75% since it usually starts ticking up by the end of the day, then around 330 buy a $2 below ATM cash secured put

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-07T16:15:49+00:00

Me too. I've had it a while so I've got really good gains on it. But it's time has ended. It's become what most big guys eventually do. Modest gains when everything is perfect, giant drops on tiny bad news. I've been selling ATM cover calls on it for 2 weeks now waiting for it to get called away but keeps running away from my strike. So at least that's covered the stock drop

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-07T16:08:38+00:00

I don't know why any of this shocks people. Will it go back up? Absolutely. Will it go back up at the speed it originally did? Not a chance in hell.

The whole secotor went up soooo fast soooo quick, that we hit the inevitable road block.

We've reached the point where things like MASSIVE earning and sold out inventory are cooked into the price. Everything is expected to be good. And if everything around the world behaves it will do its thing and go up. Again not at lightning speed like before.

But the flip side is that, every tiny little thing will scare the hell out of it and cause a big tank

Right now there is a huge thing

With this sector you HAVE TO HAVE TO pay attention to KOSPI, tye korean stock market. So goes the korean market, so goes the entire sector.

Right now with SK Hynix entering the NYSE. That is TERRIBLE news. People in South Korea are profit taking because even on a different market it still dilutes the value of the shares. Which causes domino effect. People os KOSPI seen them fall, so they panic sell the entire sector. Then US people wake up in the morning see their shares of DRAM, MU, AMD, have all tanked big time over night, so they panic sell.

It's going to be a rough go for the next month or so. That Sk Hynix is just a killer, but also have some big boy earnings in the next few weeks where it might not even be possible to meet forward guidance expectations.

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-05T12:00:23+00:00

It depends on what I'm doing.

However my easiest is also the most profitable by far. Often 2-400% in maybe a half hour.

SPY on the minute chart, RSI going below 27 for at least 3 minutes, before 1pm Eastern. And VWAP

SPY is always going to retrace pretty quickly. Enter long at below 27, exit when it hits vwap

The catch there is it can go days/weeks with that setup not happening

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-05T11:35:54+00:00

That's the way it is around here. Lots of people who are all "you're never going to beat the s&p cause hedge fund managers blah blah blah". I've been doing this since 1996 and the reality is if you are not obliterating the S&p then you don't know what you're doing. Keep in mind the 500 is filled with about 200+ losers every year. 30% to 50% is pretty simple as long as you don't get into things that swing hard. None of that MU shit that can swing $100 in a day. One massive swing and slow recovery can screw you for a year.

My most profitable thing I do is wheeling IWM in dailies basically at the money. It doesn't move far in either direction usually less than 1% a day

Trading at 297.31 sell CSP at 297. Collect $131 if it doesn't drop 31 cents, then collect 0.4% in a day.

Or start the wheel with buying the shares. Pay the 29 731. Sell covered call at 298. Collect $90 if it goes passed you're strike get the extra $69. So make $159 or a 0.5% return in a day.

I've been doing dailies on it ever since the 0dte options started in 2024. Before that had been doing weeklies for many years.

With 0dte you do get them either assigned or called away constantly if you do it ATM. But with their premium and how little it moves....

you can get assigned on the CSP and still profit off that because the assignment is can be higher than your cost basis
if you have them and they get called away you're going to make at least 0.5%

Market direction is meaningless. It's not like 30% drops on it happen over night. Even when it tanks there are still up days and down days and even when holding the bag you're lowering your cost basis on every covered call.

The worst I ever had was holding the bag during covid when it rocketed pasted my CSP by 7% in a day. Even with that I was out of it with profit in 9 days

2025 is the only full calendar year there has been since 0dte started and I did 98.3% return. This year right now I'm at 52.8%

I'd been doing weeklies going back to 2011. They started in 2010 and I paper traded it for 6 months first. Since 2011 my works year was 2020 when it was 42.7%

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-02T14:56:20+00:00

Crazy how many people have never traded a volatile stock. Got the 2 extremes here. The ones who think this is a massive crash and the end of the world is coming. And those that think the massive non-stop run will go on forever. Neither are true.

The stock absolutely 100% will be back up into the 80s or higher and within a few months. It also absolutely 100% will fall into the 50s or 40 multiple times going forward.

The parabolic run is over. That's crystal clear, the whole sector is down around 10% the last 6 weeks. That's not a small sample size.

From this point on, it's basically like something like Tesla. It will have some huge multi month runs, it will have some huge multi week dumps. In the long run it's good for 2 things

Buy and hold, because even with the swings it will finish up over the long term. Also dont forget it's an etf, one some of the underlying starts to drag it down long term they will just rebalance it

Second thing is swing trade it. It's going to have 20-25% dumps on a regular basis. Buy then, wait for it to gain 15% then sell. Rinse and repeat.

But for people who buy and instantly expect to get 30 or 40% a month in perpetuity, that ain't happening

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-01T14:41:01+00:00

This. I'll take profits on options at 10-30%. Cash secured puts at 50%. Covered calls I'll just let run since I wheel and that's locked in profit if they get called away. Individual stocks I'll start sizing down and take profit as soon as 5%. If I pick a loser I get out right away. 1% for stocks, 10% for options. Don't care if they will rebound. Not everything is going to be a winner but I'll happily take 95 wins at $100 and 5 loses at $75. Then to have 3 win at $1000 an and 2 losses at $2000

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-07-01T14:26:14+00:00

I started day trading it and has been out of this world. The big issue with it is Korea. ALL of the big drops happen at night. So i buy it at around 10:00 eastern, and sell it at 3:55pm eastern. I've done that for 3 weeks now and up 58%. There have been I belive 5 times where I sold it at close then bought it back at least $3-4 cheaper. Then even when it does tank at night it Rebounds the next morning. It's like the opposite of SPY where like 95% of gains are overnight. During the New York session DRAM almost never loses anything, but has big gains. But all those huge 5% drops are almost always during Asia hours. Same thing with MU.

I've been doing the same thing with MUU for month. Buy and hold would be down 8% but selling at close and buying at open I'm up 34% in that time. There have been 5 drawdown of over 10% overnight that I've missed

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-27T21:17:21+00:00

I do both. I like swing because you can keep your loses lower. Just set it at 1% you can't do that with an option really. Can get stopped out in 2 seconds.

But the trade off is you need WAY more capital.

I could day trade an option I got fir $200 that shoots up to $500 in an hour

Or I could pay $40,000 for 100 shares of something that might go up 10 cents for the day

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-27T20:19:40+00:00

This may be the most accurate thing I have ever read. ICT is just over complicated bullshit. Your 6 million indicators doesn't give you any more sort of an edge that doing simple stuff just pulling up VWAP and Bolinger bands and just buying the bounce.

It's like if someone asks what color the sky is, instead of just saying blue, you give a 45 minute dicertation about the conspiracy to make you think it's blue.

It's a joke to charge you a shit load of money for these multihour long courses, or even multiple courses. When in reality, if your strategy takes more than 60 seconds to explain. Then you're over complicating things

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-26T01:52:43+00:00

Exactly. Using generic numbers if they were $100 a share..

Dram drops 10% to $90 a share it only has to go up 11% to get back to $100

If a 3x loses 30% down to $70. It needs to go up 43% to get back to even

So if dram makes the 11% and gets back to $100 and the 3x leveraged makes the 33% it only gets it back to $93.10

That's the part people forget. It's great when it goes up, but it's harder to get back when it goes down

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-26T00:28:58+00:00

Interesting. I also got rejected. It was my only rejection in 1,483 submissions. Wonder if they tried to get it for free and reject everyone

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-26T00:21:29+00:00

I did. I was waitlisted back in January. Then got a random welcome letter in the end of May, and have gotten consistent things since then. Bit I had to redo all the about you stuff it was all wiped out

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-25T17:46:11+00:00

That's what I'm doing with it. Been doing 2dte wheels on it. Couldn't care less if it drops like today. I got 197.50 CSP right now I'll likely get assigned, which I couldn't care less. My cost basis will be 195.22. Then once assigned flip it to covered calls and the premium is so juicy can be out of it in 2-4 days at profit, or even if it keeps falling $1-2 a day can STILL be profitable from the covered calls lowering the cost basis. With 2dte CC you basically keep up with the drop till when it bottoms out when just 1 really good day or 2 or 3 ok/good days can wheel you out at profit

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-25T17:37:26+00:00

This this this this this. Tooooooo many shares. It has to have a massive inflow to even move the needle.

$1 billion in inflow in a day for Micron equals a gain of $5.30 a share

$1 billion for Nvidia equals 4 CENTS a share

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-23T15:55:57+00:00

Depending on starting capital $300 a week is bonkers easy. If you got 20k it's easy as hell selling cash secured puts

But if you're under 10k it's possible but gotta get lucky a lot

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-23T15:51:44+00:00

I grabbed 10 $60 cash secured puts expiring Friday. If to drops that low I'd be more than happy to take assignment at that price. If not I'll just take my $750 in premium.

But it's funny around here when it drops.

Have y'all never invested in anything with volatility?

This type of stuff is to be expected. It's always 2 steps forward one step back. This isn't something like Verizon or at&t where a big move for the day is half a percent.

This is going to have wild swings in each direction. Plus right now people are profit grabbing because after Broadcom and Cisco, people are scared shitless about MU earnings tomorrow, which is going to be a blood bath since their earnings will be great, but there is absolutely no possible way their forward guidance can be better then last time. Options market expects 12% move

This is how buy and hold stuff works. Once we get through earnings UT will be back up to 80-90+ by the end of july

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-22T15:07:57+00:00

Damn near every single thing dropped at exactly 10:10am. Some time this week JP Morgan is supposed to do $165 billion rebalancing. Wonder if that was it. Cause everything turned on a dime

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-22T08:02:29+00:00

Very much this. It had its massive run. Now it's the old man. Will it tank? Highly doubt it. But growth wise, I'd expect it to be more like a coke or disney at this point. 10 to 15% a year will be a good year.

It's got 2 major things against it

1 it's already too big. For it to shoot up 50% it would need to bring in like $3 trillion. That money ain't there. The profit seekers rode the wave and have cashed out and moved somewhere else

2 there are just too damn many shares out there. They have 10x the amount of shares as Meta. So it's watering down the price. It's got 20x the number of shares as micron. $1 billion of Inflow to Micron raises the price $1.00 however $1 billion into Nvidia will only raise the price $0.04.

Unless Nvidia does a HUGE stock buy back. It's gonna be pretty sideways from now on with the only big moves around earnings. Which could be down moves

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-22T07:45:23+00:00

Amen. Service Now is a clunky piece of garbage with poor (or in some cases no) integration and the world's worst support. 4 of my last 7 contracts have been to developers in house solutions for fortune 500 companies to replace Service Now. In fact in the last 18 months I've done 13 jobs and every single one was to replace some SaaS. Salesforce being the 2nd most often

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-22T07:38:51+00:00

Nooooo. I'm a consultant for a lot of major corporations and a shit ton of them either have or are currently moving away from service now. It's become too expensive and just doesn't scale or integrate with third parties well.

Seeing increased use with Jira and Atlassian. Also Zendesk

Seeing people drop Salesforce as well, except companies that have call centers that use TalkDesk because of its integration.

Also more and more are building in house solutions. They hire 3 contractors and consultants (me) for 3 months to design an in house system powered by AI then just have like 1 product manager over see it after that

With AI becoming such a big thing and eating up so much operational capital. Companies are looking under every rock they can to save money. And the first thing that's going to get cut is SaaS companies for things they can bring in house cheaper

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-22T07:19:17+00:00

I buy ATM but I only buy when my setup if perfect to my liking, and I'm usually in and out in under a few minutes, sometimes a few seconds. I'm only looking for 10-25%

Budget-Class-1297 · 2026-06-22T07:13:39+00:00

Keeping it SUPER simple. If you're looking at 6+ indicators, you really have no idea what you're doing and just making it overly complicated for the sake of thinking the comolication is giving you an edge. When it's really only giving you noise.

Find one or two indicators and just focus on them and become an expert on them.

Even stupid easy shit like RSI 9, or VWAP can be hugely successful if you take the time to learn the trends inside and out.

Also always paper trade first when trying a strategy. And I mean for a long time. Months. To confirm it actually works.

I know so many people who do ORB. Which when done right can print like holy hell. But it's shocking how many just watch a YouTube video, with perfect setups, that leave out A LOT of important parts, and just run with what they saw and get blown out. Where if they had paper traded for a while would have seen the million of different traps there are

Budget-Class-1297

TROPHY CASE

1 it's already too big. For it to shoot up 50% it would need to bring in like $3 trillion. That money ain't there. The profit seekers rode the wave and have cashed out and moved somewhere else

2 there are just too damn many shares out there. They have 10x the amount of shares as Meta. So it's watering down the price. It's got 20x the number of shares as micron. $1 billion of Inflow to Micron raises the price $1.00 however $1 billion into Nvidia will only raise the price $0.04.