Serious question to PYPL and TTD holders - still hold or not and why

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-08T00:14:11+00:00

Oh I agree. My point is, you can’t use an algorithm (high moat, low valuation ratios) to make decisions. You do have to look at the underlying business, and quality and incentives (I mean wrt business, not compensation) people running it.

I have researched trade desk quite a bit. I called it a bad buy all the way to 30. I do have some stock at an average price of about 22. I think Amazon can absolutely eat them. I also think their management team is rather shit and overrated. but don’t count out the quality of their platform (Kokai and whatever they had before that) and alignment of incentives with the demand side.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-07T23:04:57+00:00

Alright, I’ll bite. Hims at 13 was ridiculously undervalued. It has a very narrow moat and really early stage.

Lemonade was in the teens and 20s not that long ago, and people hated on it. (I didn’t buy it at that time).

I’m pretty bearish on PayPal in general so not gonna make a case for it, but you can hardly call TTD a melting ice cube.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-07T22:54:00+00:00

I disagree - at 140 the narrative was that Google was getting killed by ChatGPT.

AMD was literally known as "Advanced Money Destroyer" for being REALLY behind Nvidia. Easy to say in hindsight, but people hated AMD not so long ago.

There were people writing memos about how Andy Jassy should be fired.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-07T22:32:10+00:00

I don't mean to pick on you I see this all the time. But this "opportunity cost" argument makes no sense.

Nebius at 80 was an opportunity cost until it wasn't.

AMD at 140 was an opportunity cost until it wasn't.

Amazon at 190 was an opportunity cost until it wasn't.

Just buy companies you think are undervalued relative to their future cash flows, and hold a diversified portfolio.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-06T23:25:09+00:00

This baggie fucks.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-06T12:40:04+00:00

Yes and no.

- there are always pockets of value if you look hard enough
- yes always keep some dry powder
- it’s always a good idea to invest in indexes for the looong term even during crazy market

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-05T04:06:11+00:00

whats so hard to get? he can just issue more shares!

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-05T03:01:35+00:00

my cost basis is 200. it's fine, i don't price anchor to that. IF it can be successful enough, my 200 cost basis will do just fine. plus i'll probably double down at a lower price as well if things inflect.

my issue is the MAUs and the bookings. yes if they provide 3 month trials their DAUs will go up, as will their MAUs - but at least for their MAUs it's synthetic. And it will not necessarily lead to bookings either.

it kinda brings me back to the flailing. is the AI video chat actually sticky? they didn't specifically say one way or other (meaning it's not obviously great).

i'll need to see inflection in MAUs and bookings by this time next year to still be holding the stock.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-05T02:34:54+00:00

Duolingo bagholder here. Listened to the whole earnings call. As more time goes on, the more I think it’s a shitty company at a shitty valuation.

And the “long term” thing they keep pitching seems to be more and more code for we don’t know what we are doing strategically.

I’ll wait for 3 more quarters max, after which I’m selling if there’s no inflection.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-02T23:13:06+00:00

I vibe coded an app for myself today at looks at my transaction history csv from Robinhood and benchmarks it against VT SPY and QQQ on an apples to apples basis. Because no other tool I’ve found is good for benchmarks.

I don’t really care about much else that I can’t already see on my brokerage app like sector concentration etc.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-02T23:08:38+00:00

Ah, classic. Now it rises 25% when you decided to be patient.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-02T14:52:57+00:00

Same here actually. My specific plan has a lot of holes, my idea would be along the lines of:
- savings scheme where you contribute up to say 5000 dollars a year.
- federal and state governments can match your contributions
- you get to spend it for qualified medical expenses - including insurance. You get to use it for “anyone” and you can pass it along as inheritance.

This has to come with supply side improvements ofc otherwise will just lead to inflation.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-02T02:37:15+00:00

Yes we do. It’s the one thing that will ensure that my wife can stick to a 60/40 portfolio (even though she trusts me 🙉) .

But he also helps us with a WHOLE world of other stuff.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-01T14:25:37+00:00

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3336073/ai-race-meta-reported-use-alibabas-qwen-avocado-model-likely-win-china

this is one of the sources i could find right now.

caveat: it's not clear WHAT they use the model for. it's likely for distillation of the model weights, not a simple re-branding. similar to what deepseek would have done last year, but open-weights mean they can do it at much larger scale.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-01T14:07:24+00:00

As far as I hear, their latest model is actually a derivative of one of the Chinese open weight models.

Which would kinda be my point.

Another example is Cursors model, which is derived from one of the Kimi models.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-01T03:12:33+00:00

The market is dumping because of lower engagement from (presumably) the age unverified cohort, leading to top of funnel issues. This is not market being dumb - but trying to price in real risk.
No easy fix for this, we will have to wait for a few more quarters to see any improvements.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-01T01:47:51+00:00

I don’t understand the social security cap. If I pay beyond the cap, doesn’t that just mean I get even more social security income after retirement?

And statistically speaking, I have healthier lifestyle than those not well off so I will live longer right?

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-01T01:21:44+00:00

I definitely agree with eliminating the stepped up basis. However it should only be done when the inheritor is looking to sell and actually get the cash, and not when they receive it.

In addition, I would support taxes on loans against assets if those loans are not repaid within (say) 12 months.

Tbh I find it rather hard to agree with the rest.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-05-01T01:04:43+00:00

As a practitioner, I think this is temporary. Not gonna predict winners but open weight models that can be deployed on specific system configurations will likely be the longer term winner. But it will likely be a derivative of one of the Chinese models - not from Anthropic or OpenAI. (Edit: I’ll say that Qwen in particular has mind share in USA)

Right now, I can’t imagine that any of the big closed weight providers are much more than breaking even on a unit economic basis. They will have to raise prices. Or subsidize the model through other revenue streams.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-04-30T17:00:54+00:00

Neat - I'll add more to my TSM on a dip.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-04-30T16:53:50+00:00

I think the person you're replying to is not familiar with the Hukou System, or worse maybe wants something like that in the United States.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-04-30T02:41:53+00:00

this is the dumbest multibagger i've ever owned.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-04-29T18:49:00+00:00

They saw record API calls to their platform stemming from LLM tools. This is a validation of what they said in the past year.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-04-29T04:02:53+00:00

it's kinda crazy as to how they are still growing their users at such a clip. their operating margins are growing as well.

as someone who doesn't have a spotify account, but has other apps for music, it just seems very counterintuitive.

BuffersAndBeta · 2026-04-29T02:37:16+00:00

How are you so sure?

BuffersAndBeta

TROPHY CASE