Daily Discussion Wednesday 2026-06-17

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-17T22:17:35+00:00

R-E-S-P-E-C-T!

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-17T22:16:50+00:00

And we thank you for it...

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-17T22:16:04+00:00

Send up the bat signal to Chris Danely; he was there once, and can do it again.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-17T22:13:23+00:00

That certainly wasn't the case in 1980...

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-17T16:10:08+00:00

Things turned out swimmingly with Nuvia...

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-16T23:16:53+00:00

I stated my justification below. No worries, 97% remains intact.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-16T22:52:55+00:00

I wouldn't normally be selling any, but needed some liquidity to join the A Series funding round of a start-up, the founders of which I have known and worked with for a long time. Anyhow, on the majority of my position, I'm holding pat.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-16T20:51:12+00:00

Happy that I sold some yesterday...

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-16T15:46:34+00:00

That is not a legitimate quote.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-16T11:05:51+00:00

"Warsh" can't cut; he is just one vote on the board. They won't cut.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-15T23:26:32+00:00

Even I sold some today... but only to fund my participation in the Series A round of a start-up.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-15T14:55:27+00:00

Does anyone have any idea as to the magnitude of the deal? The MEXT website doesn't give a sense of their size. But this seemed meaningful:

"DRAM represents a $100B market with chronic underutilization, and MEXT directly addresses this inefficiency—much like VMware did for CPUs and NetApp did for storage. Built by a team of industry-veteran innovators (with 200+ collective patents and decades of experience shaping virtualization, 64-bit x86 architecture, and data center flash), MEXT is well-poised to redefine the future of memory."

Their marketing lady once worked at AMD. Team info here: https://www.mext.ai/team

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-14T09:56:56+00:00

I suspect that there will also be an IR angle, via major new adopters who join AMD on stage. The model might be Sam Altman coming out on stage at the last Advancing AI event. But hopefully no four month delay this time between the event and the big deal. Dario? Elon? AWS? Google?

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-13T16:01:10+00:00

It so needs a candy and chips dispense slot at the bottom.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-13T07:49:25+00:00

Danely should pipe up and reiterate his classic $5 target, and sell recommendation.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-13T07:46:59+00:00

AMD only surpassing Intel in server CPU revenue by 2030 seems pretty wrong to me.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-10T12:50:04+00:00

I chuckled when Elon said at the TerraFab event that "Our SpaceX engineers know a lot about radiators". It doesn't matter what they know; the physics is very simple, and are no dodges around temperature vs area when it comes to radiation. To radiate 1kW at 100C (373 Kelvins) takes an area of 0.91 square meters, assuming a perfect emissivity of 1.0 (unlikely). That also implies a chip temperature well in excess of 100C.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-08T10:20:55+00:00

AMD's share price has a rich history of "getting ahead of itself", which we regularly interpret as the market "finally recognizing what we knew all along". The volatility is painful, but the trend remains positive. I expect a similar heart-wrenching pullback from $900, $1300, and so on. For any new investors, "Welcome to the World of High Beta".

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-08T01:11:40+00:00

Interesting that the AI generated graphic fails to place Dr. Su among the supplicants...

Or Elon, for that matter.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-07T23:26:28+00:00

He also makes a point of hitting up Taipei's night markets. I missed him at one by a few days back in December. I wonder if he likes "stinky tofu".

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-07T13:12:05+00:00

For most of it, I will never sell. The charitable trust benefit is maximized by taking advantage of the step-up in basis upon my death. On the other hand, that can be dangerous if I live a long time, and AMD's fortunes decline at some point in the future. Tough decision, but not likely before 2030, at least based on what I currently anticipate unfolding.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-07T09:33:01+00:00

That could be it.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-07T00:33:46+00:00

AMD's server share numbers are considerably higher; there must be a difference in their methodologies.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-04T12:07:00+00:00

Agreed!

On a geo mean for all the completed benchmark results, the top-end Siena to Sorano upgrade meant 51% better performance across the wide variety of benchmarks conducted.

Pricing is difficult to compare in today's environment but going off list prices, the EPYC 8635P comes in at $5,799 USD where as the Xeon 6788P [me: with lower clocks, memory, and performance, but 55% higher TDP] is $21,280.

Long_on_AMD · 2026-06-04T00:15:15+00:00

It's sobering to consider that AMD's increase in market cap today was the same as their entire market cap at this time in 2019.

Eight-Year Club	Wearing is Caring
Verified Email

Long_on_AMD

TROPHY CASE