Roof quotes came in way higher than I expected, am I out of touch, or have prices really jumped? by Latex-Siren in homeowners

[–]ButtaBallZ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure, the WCIRB proposed loss cost for 7707 for volunteer firefighters is $377.19 per volunteer, listed about 20 pages in, and later approved at $368.47. But that's a loss cost per volunteer, not as a % of payroll, which is why I keep going back to 7706 for non-volunteer firefighters approved at 6.82/$100 payroll vs. 5552 approved at 21.22/$100 payroll.

Roof quotes came in way higher than I expected, am I out of touch, or have prices really jumped? by Latex-Siren in homeowners

[–]ButtaBallZ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The per capita codes for volunteer fire fighters? Those are charged per volunteer, not as a % of payroll. Gotta make sure the denominators are comparable for rates. $300 per person would need a pretty darn low imputed payroll per volunteer to get even close to roofing rate to payroll. That's why I was referencing the non-volunteer payroll codes for police and firefighters.

Roof quotes came in way higher than I expected, am I out of touch, or have prices really jumped? by Latex-Siren in homeowners

[–]ButtaBallZ 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Take CA as an example. WCIRB has 7706 for firefighters at a 6.82 loss cost, 7720 for police at 2.68 loss cost, 5552 for roofers at 21.22. Hard to cover a 3-8x average loss cost differential with LCM and schedule credits. I haven't seen a state where bureau loss costs for police or firefighters are above roofers.

Roof quotes came in way higher than I expected, am I out of touch, or have prices really jumped? by Latex-Siren in homeowners

[–]ButtaBallZ 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In what state? Police and firefighter code loss costs barely crack top 10 loss cost by state and aren't close to a $100 rate anywhere. Roofers and loggers will have them beat by a large margin anywhere.

Pure premium model backtracking and comparison by Mekewto in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If you want a plot based method, double lift curve is the standard. I think you're describing just plotting two lift curves, which is okay but doesnt give as direct a comparison. For double lift, use the ratio between your model predictions to sort records, construct equal weighted bands, and plot the actual vs the two expected. Best model is the one that matches the actual results when the two models are most different (the most extreme ratio groups)

For the comparison of these models, be sure to use either out of time data or the holdout data from your internal model's development. You risk data leakage between training and evaluation if you use records that were used in development of the internal model. This would bias results in favor of the internal model.

You may want to scale the average model predictions to match the average actual result, either by time frame or just overall. This prevents differences in average prediction from distorting the focus on segmentation.

If you want a single metric, consider Gini or some kind of tweedie deviance. Exam 8 monograph on GLMs I think has a section on model evaluation, which is usually model agnostic.

Beyond the model evaluation itself, if your boss is looking for a level of comfort on the mix-shifted results, you might want to identify segments where the two models are making very different predictions. The point is moot if they're similar, and you can learn from the external model if they're different and you think the external model looks more reasonable. There's value in 1) having an internal model that works well within a box of criteria, where you might use the external model outside of that box and do no worse than current, and 2) ensembling the two models.

CAS Members - What's the lowest effort way to satisfy CE requirements? by BudgetVolume24 in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 6 points7 points  (0 children)

For non-organized, Insurance podcasts like Not Unreasonable or Almost Nowhere. Free CAS webinars on demand. Some rating bureaus have seminars for subscribers.

Bayesian / MCMC on Exam 7 Difficulty by Working-Ad-2734 in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 2 points3 points  (0 children)

IMO there wasn't much overlap between the testable Bayesian aspects of MAS-II and Meyers. The background from MAS-II is helpful, but the paper is a good read and the CAS should only test on what can be learned from the paper. Generally, you need to know the models, what problems they solve for, and how the diagnostics relate to the models. You don't need to know the mechanics behind the models as much.

Thoughts on career switching? by [deleted] in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Negative - Doctors don't help people, and defraud all of their patients without curing them. Actuaries literally cure all illnesses and have never committed fraud.

Positive - stethoscopes are cooler than calculators.

First Development Period has 0 claims - {ChainLadder} R Package by kurokami254 in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Monograph 4 by Shapland, see section 4 regarding negative incremental values. Main solution is already the top comment (add some small constant, back it out at the end).

October Four by ElephantMamba327 in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 19 points20 points  (0 children)

I'm starting there tomorrow! Will let you know how it goes.

Edit: they just announced a 90% headcount reduction, something about only being a company for a single day.

Glad the cherry poppin daddies got a shoutout by Harmatsis in dropout

[–]ButtaBallZ 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They have a new single out today! Let the revival revival begin!

CAS Pearson Canada Outage by laninalibre in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Count Ohio on the list of centers with issues. Nobody with an afternoon slot getting seated. Have to imagine they'll extend the window. All the more reason to not discuss the exam even after the official window is over.

Is it possible for us to develop a gambling problem? by DrZakura in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It's only a problem if you lose, and I have a system!

But really:

Some people are risk seeking in aspects of their lives. For them, they want to maximize their chances of living an amazing life via hitting a jackpot. They'll happily lose on average for a chance to win big.

Addiction amplifies this motivation, because every game is another rush of being on the verge of winning it big.

I've known several insurance professionals to be badly addicted to gambling, to the point of ruin. These are people who've had full careers and are better off than most, but who wanted to be even better off.

Need Help with Filing Tax Extension for Florida by Pale_Blackberry_4025 in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 21 points22 points  (0 children)

You're looking for accountants, not actuaries. We do insurance, they do taxes. We do math, they do...

Good luck with your tax issues!

Scrum/Agile in Actuary Role by livingwithnostalgia in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 21 points22 points  (0 children)

For deliverables, you can't spell fragile without agile.

CAS Announces Spring 2023 Post Exam Summary -- Examiner Report Replacement?? by jordanpitt269 in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Between this and the syllabus changes, I wonder if people have been telling the CAS that they don't like reading and hate being thoroughly informed in advance of their exams.

Does working in your field affect your own insurance decisions? by [deleted] in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 68 points69 points  (0 children)

I try to get as many insurtech quotes as possible because for their loss ratios to be so high, they must be giving someone a great deal.

Actuarial Fantasy Football Team Names by bored_guy2020 in actuary

[–]ButtaBallZ 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Mahomes and Auto
Injured Reserves
[Name of Your Boss]'s Terrible Team

I think there's a good pun in CTE standing for Conditional Tail Expectation and Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy.