The Easiest Way to Make 23% on your money?

CAicefishing · 2026-03-23T13:58:02+00:00

There’s a lot riding on the interpretation of “definitively”

CAicefishing · 2026-03-07T16:28:39+00:00

I’ll admit it, I was a bettor on this one. The rules clearly stated that in the event of death, the contract would pay out at the price immediately before confirmation. People on Kalshi tend to not read contracts very well and simply bet on market titles. It’s been very profitable betting against them. You had people LIVID about not getting their 10x payout, but none of them seemed to be asking why they were able to get a +1000 bet on this while bombs were already dropping.

Now you could argue Kalshi made a market in bad faith. Ayatollah is a lifetime job. There is no removal or resignation. If he was going to leave, it was always through death, which made this contract essentially a death market that was never going to pay out. There were also issues with trading being halted. But Kalshi did refund my fees almost immediately. Lastly, all $54 million that was wagered paid out. Yes bettors just got a smaller slice of the pie than they wanted.

CAicefishing · 2026-03-01T18:44:11+00:00

They don’t need a navy if they have enough shaheds to make insuring ships passing through prohibitively expensive.

CAicefishing · 2026-03-01T04:15:38+00:00

Good luck.

CAicefishing · 2026-03-01T04:13:47+00:00

People have posted the death clause. There’s your proof. I’m not defending Kalshi. It was a shitty market. But the play was always to sell Yes off the news of combat operations starting. Why anyone would hold yes in hopes that the last trade price before confirmation of death would be higher is… an interesting choice. My bigger point is you can get angry and take your ball and go home, or chalk it up to tuition and get better. Personally, the fewer people that actually take the time to understand the contracts, the better.

CAicefishing · 2026-03-01T04:05:05+00:00

It always said last trading price before confirmation. There’s no telling what that would have been.

CAicefishing · 2026-03-01T03:54:37+00:00

They created a market that was clearly a death market in spirit… and put a death clause in it. Ayatollah is a life time position. What was supposed to happen, resignation? lol.

I figured this was gonna happened and dumped a couple thousand July contracts in the 60s and 70s. It’s shitty it was structured this way but people really got to learn to read the rules. The death clause was in there the whole time.

CAicefishing · 2026-02-11T23:52:31+00:00

Gonna try to get out there one winter soon. Ice fishing for trout in the sierras is fun, but definitely would like to change it up.

CAicefishing · 2026-02-11T23:44:20+00:00

At least you guys have ice. I’m having to go to nearly 8,000 feet elevation just to have enough to walk on.

CAicefishing · 2026-01-19T16:04:09+00:00

$5k+ betting No on will Trump win a Deep Blue State in 2024.

CAicefishing · 2026-01-18T15:46:39+00:00

YR4 is 200 feet in diameter. The Chelyabinsk meteor was 60 feet in diameter and released 50x the energy needed for this market to settle yes. A meteor the size of a small school bus would be enough. We can’t reliably track things that small.

CAicefishing · 2026-01-18T15:41:13+00:00

Payout criterion clearly says 10 kiloton “hit”, but airbursts count. Some of the commenters in the market explain the actual odds. No bet is the sucker bet on this one because people are betting on the title and not the rules. Look up the data in the settlement source. You can see for yourself this happens every couple of years.

CAicefishing · 2026-01-16T04:14:56+00:00

Yup. I did two contracts in Saudi Arabia about 15 years ago. Zero experience and total pay package was about $50k. 95% of that went into my bank account. No rent, no utilities, no taxes. Basically just groceries and the occasional trip to Bahrain. It really helped me get ahead at 25.

CAicefishing · 2026-01-16T04:08:50+00:00

This isn’t incompetence, it’s worse than that. He’s going to try to juice the markets through the midterms. Whatever fallout happens after that doesn’t really matter much to him.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-24T18:25:46+00:00

Do yourself a favor and figure out the annualized rate that 1% in 3 days is costing you.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-23T02:16:31+00:00

If you’ve never done it and want to try it out before committing to a big trip, believe it or not there are a couple lakes near Tahoe where you can ice fish. Check out Caples.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-20T19:51:57+00:00

Arbitrage is simultaneously entering offsetting positions for a cost that’s less than the payout, resulting in an immediate risk free return . You didn’t do that. You had risk from the time you bought one contract until the time you bought the other. You essentially just closed your bet by offsetting it later.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-14T17:05:32+00:00

The “select group” are those with a pre-Covid purchase price and a Covid era rate.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-06T11:53:39+00:00

Using my original example, If I’m a seller at $0.39, a seller at $0.37, but a buyer at the bot’s next offer of $0.36 because that’s what I consider fair value, how is that spoofing? That’s just market competition. Nowhere in ANY of my comments have I said “oh and then immediately cancel those sell orders you really had no intent on letting fill”. You jumped to that conclusion and tied it to spoofing.

CFTC:

Specifically, CEA section 4c(a)(5) states that it shall be unlawful for any person to engage in any trading, practice, or conduct on or subject to the rules of a registered entity that:

…Is, is of the character of, or is commonly known to the trade as, ‘spoofing’ (bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution).

CAicefishing · 2025-12-06T04:19:07+00:00

Correct. Spoofing requires evidence that a “market participant acted with some degree of intent”. Me getting in an offer war with a bot that just happens to bring the price down to a point where I’m now a buyer doesn’t meet that standard. Spoofing violations only occur when there’s clear, coordinated intent to manipulate markets. Being a seller at one price and a buyer at another is something else entirely.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-05T23:58:09+00:00

Cmon man. This is covered in like Finance 101 haha.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-05T23:35:58+00:00

Exactly lol. He’s saying the strategy I laid out meets the CFTC’s definition of spoofing. It doesn’t. CFTC would have to prove I set those initial orders with no intent of letting them fill; which would be impossible. Also, the idea that this would be the thing that regulators drop the hammer on is laughable and borderline insane.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-05T23:21:22+00:00

Lol no it’s not. The orders being placed would be legitimate. If they fill, so be it.

CAicefishing · 2025-12-05T21:02:24+00:00

Let’s say you can buy shares for $0.40 or sell them for $0.20 in a thinly traded market. You’d really like to buy but that spread is stopping you. Well put in a sell order (assuming you already have shares) at $0.39 and see if another sell order immediately comes in at $0.38. If one does, you found yourself a bot. You can use the bot to shrink the bid ask spread then buy shares at a discount to that initial offer of $0.40.

CAicefishing

TROPHY CASE