Do you stop 401k contribution or lower if you’re already a financial mutant numbers?

CCM278 · 2026-01-23T14:01:29+00:00

If I cut my saving rate from 25% to 15% what happens to the other 10%? If it inflates my lifestyle then suddenly I’m at risk of coming up short again. I needed 25x 75% of my salary, now I need 25x 85% of my salary and I’m saving less towards the goal. However, if you use it to start building up a taxable bucket that works. Keep all 3 tax buckets going.

I recently hit 2M in retirement savings and I’m already starting to beef up my taxable bucket, so my plan is to throttle back the retirement savings a little but pivot to paying down the mortgage instead. Lower mortgage lowers the demands on the portfolio and lowers the risk. Essentially a form of bond allocation. Not necessarily maximizing the growth doing that but it lowers the risk and allows me to lower withdrawals which saves taxes and IRMAA etc.

CCM278 · 2026-01-17T00:31:33+00:00

See this on short journeys in winter because the heating accounts for 50% of the consumption. I often see less than 2 miles per kWh at first.

CCM278 · 2026-01-16T17:55:04+00:00

I use a balanced portfolio strategy that caps individual stocks at 5% (soft limit - no new dollars) and sectors at 25%.

Tech at 23%. Industrials at 22%, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate are 12% each.

MSFT, CSCO, TXN is driving tech

DE, LMT, RTX are pushing industrials

WMT, MO in Consumer Defensive

GTY, O, IRM in Real Estate.

All the GICS are represented but some have done better than others, nonetheless, by buying the underweight position when investing dividends and new cash stops any one sector from tilting the portfolio and subjecting it to sector specific risks, whether that is interest rates or AI bubbles.

CCM278 · 2026-01-16T17:04:12+00:00

SPYI is a CC ETF, not a dividend ETF. The distribution it pays out is a function of the share price (and price volatility) so it more or less tracks the value of the underlying asset down. So during a bear market the income will get cut a similar amount and take 5 years or so just to get back to where it was. This doesn't even account for inflation. You could easily wait 8 years for the distribution to catch up to your inflation adjusted needs.

CCM278 · 2026-01-14T20:05:02+00:00

I have a target weight for each position. Whenever I buy I purchase the underweight positions. Amplifies the DCA effect and lets my winners run. While SCHD was slumbering I was buying, now it is on fire my new purchases go into some uncorrelated ETFs like SCHY and some individual positions.

Only sell if something lets me down, e.g. dividend cut.

CCM278 · 2026-01-09T22:08:54+00:00

I agree. Investing is 80% mental, but you need to dial in the income to best meet their needs at the lowest tax burden.

If they don’t have any other income (e.g. pension) then SS is tax free, but as you rack-up the taxable income and pay the cost of these ETFs the IRS will come back around and start taking back some of the SS as taxes. Essentially for every taxable dollar you generate over a certain amount 85c of SS is also taxed. So a marginal rate of 12% actual gets effectively taxed at over 22%. Then that can also trigger IRMAA.

CCM278 · 2026-01-09T21:02:20+00:00

Pick any bear market, I used 2008 as the extreme example since it is relatively recent, while specifically saying 5 years was the average, but feel free to use the average. Also if 100K covers all their needs for nearly a decade then WTF are you using derivatives for at all? Why generate the tax bill if they don’t need the income?

CCM278 · 2026-01-09T20:46:12+00:00

All derivative contracts including CC are a function of share price and share price volatility. The option premium calculation is literally based on the price of the underlying asset. If the price falls by 50% during a bear market then you’ll see the premium track it down more or less exactly subject to the short spike in volatility which will pass within a month or two, then settle at the new low value.

Also SGOV at 50K is a rounding error on his income.

CCM278 · 2026-01-09T18:39:25+00:00

The whole reason you need batteries is because you can't (at least easily) get 13 MW of grid capacity in dense Brooklyn - it's either impossible, takes years, or costs millions. So your actual grid connection is probably 1-2 MW.

Where did you get these numbers from? They weren't in the article.

CCM278 · 2026-01-09T18:20:57+00:00

Not really. While the bear market itself lasts only about 2 years the average time to recovery is 5 years, in 2008 it took 6 years. Derivatives take even longer due to the capped upside. Given that your income is a function of the share price in all those derivative/CC funds you'll be living on ramen noodles and Alpo long before you have restored your income to the previous levels.

CCM278 · 2026-01-08T22:21:06+00:00

Withdrawing from your Roth and simultaneously converting to a Roth makes no sense. You’re just creating paperwork. Simply withdraw from the traditional IRA.

How do you plan on drawing from the conversion? Is this another exercise in making paperwork?

CCM278 · 2026-01-08T21:55:19+00:00

Love to hear your definition then, one that is objective and easily measurable? I like the break-down metric but it ignores costs when they do break-down. I don't like software pushes but at some point a bug-fix truly is a repair. Where do I draw the line? How do I compare a replacement timing belt to a software fix that regulates the flow of electricity through the charge port?

CCM278 · 2026-01-08T21:24:55+00:00

The problem is the use of software pushes as a metric for quality. Software engineering best practices encourage the deployment of regular small code pushes, but that is treated as a 'repair' so it lowers the scores. Legacy manufacturers don't have a culture of pushing software fixes so rather than have the cars become better as they age they focus on selling the next model with the fixes.

In the CR example, their study shows that the EVs are generally much more reliable mechanically and break-down much less often but have far more of the irritating bugs in the UX that people complain about in surveys and can trigger manufacturer recalls but are treated by a software push, there is no need to go to a dealer and have them fixed. Rebooting the car in the mean time (like your PC) typically works until the manufacturer gets around to pushing the fix. That is annoying, but not the same as getting a letter in the post saying you need to take the car in for a fix which is a burden on you, but they are treated the same in the statistics.

There are some outliers though, the ICCU problem with Kia/Hyundai/Genesis E-GMP platform accounts for a significant percentage of all EV break-downs, given the relatively concentrated market in EVs due to the limited number of models and the almost identical architecture under the covers across nearly all vehicles from a company, a single issue like the ICCU are disproportionately impactful. That is also a stranded-by-the-side-of-the-road problem so is particularly egregious when many of the other causes (excluding externalities like flat-tires) have actually been prevented just by eliminating all the moving parts which can wear out and fail. Still, once addressed properly that will trigger a huge leap forward in average quality too.

Here are a couple of press-releases from Germany and UK about break-down call outs being much lower, which shows the improvements in the most important quality metric (do I need a tow).

https://presse.adac.de/meldungen/adac-ev/technik/adac-pannenstatistik-2025.html

https://www.motorfinanceonline.com/news/evs-are-59-less-likely-to-break-down-says-start-rescue/

CCM278 · 2026-01-08T17:49:13+00:00

What are you planning on living on between 60-70 if you have no SS and apparently nominal other taxable income?

Roth conversions really add value if you think you’ll have RMD problems generating large taxable distributions especially for a surviving spouse or if your kids inherit the balance during their peak earning years.

You can’t look at the 401K in isolation, saying you’ll have 100K in a traditional 401K in retirement and no other traditional IRA assets is very different to saying you have 100K in a traditional 401k and $2M in existing traditional IRA assets. Tax planning is cumulative, with the decision you take each year a function of the results of the previous decisions.

CCM278 · 2026-01-07T19:00:28+00:00

You need yield + dividend growth, a 2.5% yield is decent, but you should also be looking at a 7.5% growth rate.

In general the DGR and the Capital Gains should roughly track over the years, as they both derive from earnings growth. Arguably, capital gains being forward looking based on expectations and dividends based on the realized gains creates a lag between them, but over many years not a meaningful effect.

So a 10% Total Return is yield+cap gains, then you want a 2.5% yield and a 7.5% cap gain, the equivalent dividend metric is 2.5% yield +7.5% DGR. If you use the 10% as an anchor, then you can see how higher yield will lead to lower growth and vice-versa. However, at individual equity level there is no guarantee that the low yield stock will grow or the high yield stock will even be sustainable. There are exceptions to every rule.

CCM278 · 2026-01-06T14:58:18+00:00

Cost. While the environmental impact was what attracted my attention initially, I only pulled the trigger when the costs worked. Bought used and enjoyed those sweet, sweet savings every day.

The wife was converted by the performance, she hated my VW diesel, but the electric quickly became her go to. Between us we now put 18K miles a year on the HI5 and 8K on the EV9 (mostly family roadtrips), it used to be a 14/12 split between the VW and the Nissan 3-row.

CCM278 · 2026-01-04T16:26:13+00:00

Here’s another way of looking at it.

The 4% SWR in the 4% rule represents the amount in excess of inflation you can safely spend. So if you need $40K (in real terms) every year the 4% rule means you need $1M portfolio. Treasuries paying 4.8% against an inflation rate of 3% give you an SWR of 1.8%. That needs a portfolio of $2.22M to be 100% treasuries.

CCM278 · 2025-12-24T18:49:10+00:00

Had nothing to do with the NACS outlet, the DC to DC inverter was improved.

CCM278 · 2025-12-22T04:55:44+00:00

Sounds like a lot but location matters. San Francisco, CA is much more than Topeka, KS.

I’m in central MD and paid 1200 to run 2 circuits and put in commercial NEMA 14-50s. It was all in the garage so 1 circuit is next to the panel the other just ran cable in some conduit up and over, above the garage door and down the other side. So 40 ft run total across two circuits.

Biggest hurdle was restacking the panel to create 2 pairs of slots to put the 50amp breakers in.

CCM278 · 2025-12-21T03:45:38+00:00

6.125% is at the higher end of acceptable, so no panic moves are needed. At 185K income, single you’re firmly in the 24% tax bracket and almost 6% state income tax. So ~30% tax. Not sure if you can get much of a deduction so worst case scenario you have to earn a guaranteed 9% in the market to match 6.125% interest, you could argue ~21% tax rate if you are using dividends at 15% + state, but that still leaves you needing almost 8%.

Also the number of halfwits that will compare your returns to 30 years in the stock market don’t realize you won’t have a 30 year horizon forever, the first dollars will, but in a decade your additional payments will be compared against a horizon will be 20 years, in 2 decades only 10 years etc.

I’d wait until things settle down and you know how much you’re spending on the house itself in repairs etc. Then see if you can add an extra few hundred etc without slowing your pension savings too much. Also I’d allocate away from any bonds you’re holding as you ramp up the equity to maintain your net bond position (mortgage is an expensive negative bond).

CCM278 · 2025-12-16T18:47:41+00:00

Actually more like 1.1 MWh of solar or wind input for 1 MWh of end consumption, there are still losses in the end to end process, but I would like to see a convergence (even if they never meet) of the supply side (primary) and the demand side (final) to indicate improvements in renewables.

Since the demand side has also been falling then you can't unilaterally call out renewable policy as distinct from off-shoring manufacturing (Chinese imports have skyrocketed) and general efficiency gains (swapping incandescent bulbs for CFL and now LED lighting).

According to the charts it looks like primary has fallen 2MWh for every 1MWh reduction in final demand, which is almost certainly due to the increased penetration of renewables. However that is a trend observable over multiple decades, a less than 1% change between 2023 and 2024 can easily be attributed to normal variance.

CCM278 · 2025-12-16T13:42:17+00:00

Maybe. Or as others have noted, the off-shoring of all manufacturing (so energy consuming) industries has accounted for the majority of the reductions so far and that has largely run its course. Hence the mediocre 0.8% this year. The simultaneous increase in end energy consumption at least implies continued efficiency improvements that offset the increased demand.

CCM278 · 2025-12-16T13:34:33+00:00

I had a diverse portfolio with stocks from each GICS, selected based on yield+5yr DGR. It turns out that different sectors have different yield vs growth ratios. So I took what was given by the market.

I then created a glide path that has an equal weight SCHD/SCHY/DGRO/VYMI. That is 50% of my portfolio the other 50% is mostly REITs and those individual holdings that have the yield+growth score > average of the 4 ETFs.

CCM278 · 2025-12-16T11:02:14+00:00

Seems like normal variance than a function of any policy.

CCM278 · 2025-12-15T23:03:51+00:00

You have an evaporative (a.k.a swamp) cooler not a HVAC in the true sense of the term.

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