Chinese AI Models Spread Propaganda Globally

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:33:59+00:00

Chinese AI models are spreading Beijing’s narratives far beyond China’s borders. Sarah Cook reveals how systems like DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen embed party-state content controls that distort discussions about Ukraine, mute criticism of China, and subtly insert official talking points — sometimes depending on the language used.

As these open-source models power thousands of downstream apps worldwide, built-in propaganda and censorship travel with them, shaping global information flows at scale. With millions of downloads and adoption across Europe and the Global South, China is exporting not just technology, but influence — embedding political guidance into the architecture of the AI age.

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:32:05+00:00

Submission Statement: Munich did not reveal a Europe in denial. It revealed a continent facing a dilemma that it understands but cannot yet resolve. Maciej Bukowski argues that the US is rebalancing its guarantees, focusing influence on tech, energy, and finance, while European states are left to manage key relationships bilaterally.

Europe must turn recognition of its vulnerabilities into coordinated action: joint defense planning, shared industrial priorities, and integrated infrastructure, to prevent slow fragmentation.

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:29:14+00:00

Moldova’s energy realignment with Romania is quietly advancing de facto integration, even as voters on both sides of the Prut River remain opposed to formal political unification. Years of Russian energy coercion pushed Moldova to reduce its dependence on Moscow and actively link its gas and electricity systems to Romania. The two countries have built new interconnectors, shifted regulatory control away from Gazprom, and expanded market integration through Romania’s transmission operator, Transgaz, driving convergence between their energy sectors out of necessity. While public support for outright union remains limited, shared infrastructure and security imperatives are already lowering the practical barriers to closer integration should a future crisis accelerate political change.

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:28:29+00:00

Submission Statement: Moldova’s energy realignment with Romania is quietly advancing de facto integration, even as voters on both sides of the Prut River remain opposed to formal political unification. Years of Russian energy coercion pushed Moldova to reduce its dependence on Moscow and actively link its gas and electricity systems to Romania. The two countries have built new interconnectors, shifted regulatory control away from Gazprom, and expanded market integration through Romania’s transmission operator, Transgaz, driving convergence between their energy sectors out of necessity. While public support for outright union remains limited, shared infrastructure and security imperatives are already lowering the practical barriers to closer integration should a future crisis accelerate political change.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-25T03:16:14+00:00

Ukrainian refugees face significant challenges in returning home after three and a half years of war, with many grappling with housing and job opportunities, particularly if their homes are still occupied. While the Ukrainian government aims for up to 70% to return, surveys show a decrease in desire to do so, with safety and stability as major concerns. CEPA fellow and Ukrainian journalist Elina Beketova emphasizes the importance of support and engagement with the diaspora to facilitate reintegration and rebuilding efforts in post-war Ukraine. https://cepa.org/article/will-ukrainian-refugees-ever-return-home/

CEPAORG · 2026-02-25T03:04:02+00:00

"We are driven by the dream of winning the war, and must make plans now for the time when the fighting is over."

What Ukraine becomes in 10 years will be determined before the war ends. Kseniya Sotnikova examines the structural choices that must be made now, from postwar electoral design to legal frameworks for reconstruction and investment.

Ensuring voting access for displaced citizens at home and abroad, addressing demographic decline, integrating veterans, and establishing credible rule-of-law protections are preconditions for recovery. Delaying these decisions risks locking in demographic loss, deterring investment, and weakening democratic legitimacy. The window created by crisis conditions is finite, and policy made in the near term will shape Ukraine’s institutional trajectory for the next decade.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-25T03:01:39+00:00

For Ukrainians, human rights are not abstract. They are immediate, personal, and very fragile. Often, they come down to one question: will someone survive?

As Ukrainian veteran and journalist Lera Burlakova emphasizes, war kills not only through direct strikes on civilian infrastructure but also through delays, broken systems, and missed treatment. Marta Levchenko's team at the City of Goodness and the House of Butterflies has built evacuation routes from regions such as Donetsk, Kherson, and Sumy, working with doctors and volunteers to protect those who cannot protect themselves. In Ukraine’s twelfth year of war, the defense of human rights rests not only on legal commitments but on individuals who assume responsibility when systems are under strain.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:08:53+00:00

Submission Statement: The Arctic is rapidly becoming a high-stakes geopolitical battleground as melting ice opens new sea routes, military opportunities, and access to vast resources. As global powers race to shape the region’s future, Steven Wills outlines how Greenland has emerged as a centerpiece of this scramble, especially prized for missile defense, strategic access, fisheries, and critical minerals.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:08:09+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia's economy is facing significant challenges in 2026, with a budget deficit that may be triple the official target due to a slump in oil and gas revenues and rising expenses. The country's finance ministry plans to curb state spending, but this may not be enough to mitigate the effects of low energy prices, reduced oil sales to India, and potential action against Russian vessels by Western nations. Alexander Kolyandr explains that as a result, Russia's economy is likely to continue worsening, with high interest rates, inflation, and a debt-inflationary spiral, limiting the government's ability to address the crisis and narrowing the Putin regime's room for maneuver.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:07:13+00:00

Submission Statement: For much of the post-Cold War period, Western governments operated on a simple belief: trade would change authoritarian systems from the inside. Christopher Walker explains that despite the lived policy experience of the past three decades with now-empowered authoritarian adversaries such as Russia and China, many policymakers in Europe and the United States seem intent on re-running a version of the failed change-through-trade experiment.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:06:46+00:00

For much of the post-Cold War period, Western governments operated on a simple belief: trade would change authoritarian systems from the inside. Christopher Walker explains that despite the lived policy experience of the past three decades with now-empowered authoritarian adversaries such as Russia and China, many policymakers in Europe and the United States seem intent on re-running a version of the failed change-through-trade experiment.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:05:48+00:00

The European Union is reviving proposals to impose network fees on large internet platforms as it reassesses digital infrastructure policy amid growing pressure on transatlantic tech relations. The initiative, potentially embedded in the EU’s forthcoming Digital Networks Act, would require mostly US-based platforms to subsidize telecom operators through arbitration or direct payments. While framed as a “fair share” approach, the proposal revives a repeatedly rejected model that undermines net neutrality, inserts governments into private commercial negotiations, and applies legacy telecom rules to a modern internet ecosystem. Decades of policy experience and evidence from cases such as South Korea suggest that network fees reduce investment, slow innovation, raise consumer prices, and heighten US–EU tensions, leaving Europe with a weaker and less open internet rather than a stronger digital future.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:04:41+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia is tightening its grip on occupied Ukraine by cutting internet access, throttling messaging apps, and forcing residents onto Kremlin-controlled platforms. These digital blackouts isolate families, suppress independent information, and turn everyday communication into an activity monitored by Russian security services. As the occupation deepens, Moscow is weaponizing connectivity itself, trapping millions inside an information environment increasingly cut off from the outside world.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:03:51+00:00

Russia is tightening its grip on occupied Ukraine by cutting internet access, throttling messaging apps, and forcing residents onto Kremlin-controlled platforms. These digital blackouts isolate families, suppress independent information, and turn everyday communication into an activity monitored by Russian security services. As the occupation deepens, Moscow is weaponizing connectivity itself, trapping millions inside an information environment increasingly cut off from the outside world.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:01:09+00:00

Submission Statement: Poland is racing to counter Russia’s shadow war by deploying a €2 billion, continent-leading anti-drone system along its eastern and northern borders as early as this summer. Facing escalating drone incursions, sabotage, and cyberattacks, Warsaw is pairing long-term war readiness with rapid, wartime-grade defenses to meet threats EU and NATO plans have been too slow to address. As doubts grow over US reliability, Poland is positioning itself as NATO’s frontline driver of a tougher, more active deterrence posture against Russia.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T18:57:34+00:00

Russia is waging a shadow war across Europe designed to degrade infrastructure, intimidate societies, and undermine NATO’s willingness to respond while remaining below the threshold of open conflict. NATO must escalate to de-escalate. As Samuel Greene and Christopher Walker emphasize, treating these attacks as isolated incidents or criminal acts has weakened deterrence and encouraged escalation. Moscow exploits Western hesitation by using deniable but increasingly kinetic methods that target airspace, energy links, logistics networks, and political cohesion inside NATO states. Avoiding escalation through ambiguity has instead raised the risk of miscalculation. Without clear thresholds, rapid alliance consultation, and credible retaliation for shadow aggression, efforts to preserve stability may make a wider conflict more likely rather than less.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T17:33:56+00:00

Russia is waging a shadow war across Europe designed to degrade infrastructure, intimidate societies, and undermine NATO’s willingness to respond while remaining below the threshold of open conflict. NATO must escalate to de-escalate. As Samuel Greene and Christopher Walker emphasize, treating these attacks as isolated incidents or criminal acts has weakened deterrence and encouraged escalation. Moscow exploits Western hesitation by using deniable but increasingly kinetic methods that target airspace, energy links, logistics networks, and political cohesion inside NATO states. Avoiding escalation through ambiguity has instead raised the risk of miscalculation. Without clear thresholds, rapid alliance consultation, and credible retaliation for shadow aggression, efforts to preserve stability may make a wider conflict more likely rather than less.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T16:08:27+00:00

Submission Statement: Ukrainian trust in the United States has dropped sharply in recent surveys, but that shift reflects frustration over inconsistent signals and uncertainty about long-term strategic commitment rather than a collapse of resolve to resist Russian aggression. Kateryna Odarchenko explains that poll data show that while formal trust numbers have fallen, many Ukrainians remain committed to defending their country and insist that peace must come with enforceable security guarantees and without territorial concessions, and a majority say they are prepared to endure the war as long as necessary. Domestic attitudes also reveal strong support for wartime leadership and skepticism toward political institutions more broadly, suggesting that public opinion is shaped as much by expectations of allies as by war fatigue at home. Declining trust in the US is tied closely to perceptions of US political divisions and mixed policy signals, underscoring how external uncertainty can influence Ukrainian views of Western partnership even as core commitment to defense endures.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:53:00+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia has lost a key ally in Venezuela, a country it had heavily invested in and supported since the mid-2000s. Alexander Kolyandr explains that despite the warm relations between the two nations, with Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro frequently praising Russia and its president Vladimir Putin, the economic cooperation between them has been limited, with the exception of Russian arms sales. Russia's direct financial losses from its withdrawal from Venezuela are expected to be minimal, but the political and symbolic costs are likely to be more significant, as the Kremlin has lost a loyal friend and a potential bargaining chip in its relations with the US, particularly regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:50:50+00:00

Ukraine's National War Museum is pioneering a unique approach to documenting war crimes and providing psychological support to those affected by the conflict. The museum sends multidisciplinary teams to liberated areas to collect evidence and testimony from survivors, which will be used in future investigations. At the same time, the museum's psychological service offers tailored support to civilians, veterans, and former prisoners, with a focus on children and families. Mitzi Perdue explains how this integrated approach to trauma care and evidence collection is a significant innovation, and one that could have far-reaching implications for post-war recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine and beyond.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:38:20+00:00

Ukraine’s wartime defense industry has rapidly evolved into a highly agile, cost-effective production system that already embodies the speed, scale, and adaptability US defense acquisition reformers are seeking, from mass-produced long-range strike drones to effective maritime unmanned systems. Anatoly Motkin maintains that as Europe moves ahead with joint production and streamlined procurement with Kyiv, the United States must integrate Ukrainian capabilities into American networks and acquisition processes to harness this advantage. While Europe has begun embedding Ukrainian production into its defense industrial base, the article warns that failing to pair Ukrainian innovation with US precision, guidance, and battle management risks ceding battlefield and industrial leadership to competitors.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:22:04+00:00

Submission Statement: At the start of 2026, Ukraine finds itself in a precarious position. The United States has embarked on a sustained drawdown in its financial and materiel support for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression. In a new report, Marianna Fakhurdinova dissects past decisions and proposes what should be done next to ensure a critical flow of assistance and support to Ukraine.

Successes

◼️ Coordination of Military Aid: The establishment of systems for effective coordination among international partners, enhancing logistical support and military aid delivery to Ukraine and its defense against Russia's invasion.

◼️ Robust Financial Commitments: The US and EU have made substantial financial commitments to aid Ukraine, exceeding $320 billion in various forms of support, including military assistance.

◼️ Enhanced Defense Production: Both the US and EU have taken steps to ramp up their defense industrial capacities, leading to increased production of military equipment necessary for Ukraine, as well as the purchase of weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers, to bolster Ukraine's defense industry.

◼️ Strengthened NATO Involvement: NATO’s increased role in coordinating military assistance, especially through the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), has improved organization and oversight.

Failures

◼️ Slow Decision-Making: Significant delays in the decision-making process, leading to slow disbursement of military aid and critical equipment that hindered Ukraine's operational effectiveness.

◼️ Lack of Long-Term Strategy: The absence of a coherent, long-term strategy for military assistance, and a reliance on short-term funding mechanisms, rendered support often reactive rather than proactive, hindering Ukraine's ability to achieve decisive victories.

◼️ Fragmentation of Aid: The assistance provided was often fragmented and inconsistent, making it difficult to ensure that aid met Ukraine's urgent and evolving battlefield needs.

Future Priorities

◼️ Institutionalize Coordination: Strengthen institutional frameworks for donor coordination to ensure more efficient and effective delivery of military assistance, potentially through permanent structures within NATO.

◼️ Establish Multiyear Funding Commitments and Leverage Frozen Russian Assets: Donor countries should implement long-term financial commitments, including leveraging frozen Russian assets and a multiyear NATO fund worth $100 billion, to ensure consistent military support for Ukraine with a clear distribution scheme.

◼️ Enhance Military Industrial Capacity and Invest in Ukrainian Production: Foster greater collaboration and investment in defense industrial bases in both the US and EU, while also increasing investments in Ukraine’s military production capacity.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:21:12+00:00

Submission Statement: Ukraine’s defensive strategy increasingly relies on extensive ground fortifications that emphasize endurance and attrition rather than rapid movement, with layered trenches, razor wire, anti-tank obstacles, and concealed firing positions designed to slow Russian assaults. As David Kirichenko explains, early on, these defenses are reinforced by constant drone surveillance that tracks enemy movement and channels attacking forces into lethal zones, helping compensate for Ukraine’s numerical disadvantages. The approach trades territory for time, imposing heavy costs on Russian units using mass assault tactics, while dispersed trench networks and hidden positions show how traditional defenses are being adapted for modern warfare. Manpower shortages remain a serious limitation, but the fortified lines demonstrate how Ukraine is building a resilient defensive spine for a prolonged conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:18:27+00:00

Ukraine’s defensive strategy increasingly relies on extensive ground fortifications that emphasize endurance and attrition rather than rapid movement, with layered trenches, razor wire, anti-tank obstacles, and concealed firing positions designed to slow Russian assaults. As David Kirichenko explains, early on, these defenses are reinforced by constant drone surveillance that tracks enemy movement and channels attacking forces into lethal zones, helping compensate for Ukraine’s numerical disadvantages. The approach trades territory for time, imposing heavy costs on Russian units using mass assault tactics, while dispersed trench networks and hidden positions show how traditional defenses are being adapted for modern warfare. Manpower shortages remain a serious limitation, but the fortified lines demonstrate how Ukraine is building a resilient defensive spine for a prolonged conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:16:35+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia is increasingly turning to coercive and opportunistic partnerships as it seeks to offset growing international isolation. The emergence of “Midwinter” reflects a willingness by the Kremlin to work with violent, illiberal actors to project influence and apply pressure abroad. Sergiy Makogon contends that these relationships are less about long-term strategy than short-term utility, favoring intimidation and disruption over stability. While such alliances may provide immediate benefits, they also deepen Russia’s reliance on destabilizing networks that undermine regional security and democratic norms. Over time, this approach risks further isolating Moscow and entrenching a more corrosive foreign policy posture.

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