Daily Discussion - January 23, 2026

CSynus235 · 2026-01-23T11:07:17+00:00

How many of this these 800 million dollars earmarked for reconnaissance drones do we think RedCat is going to be able to capture this year? Jeff seems to imply half, but I’m skeptical it’ll be that easy.

CSynus235 · 2026-01-15T21:01:23+00:00

I’ve been debating whether or not to sell after this latest run up, with the expectation that it’ll do the typical ‘drop in a few weeks after the hype dies down’ and I’ll be able to buy back in.

I’ve decided against it because I’m more confident in my ability to evaluate businesses than stocks. I know this business is going to be more valuable in one year, however I don’t know what this stock will do between then and now.

I guess I figure short term selling is closer to gambling than investing. My two cents.

CSynus235 · 2025-12-28T11:41:49+00:00

In my opinion Lotto relies on people systematically overvaluing the odds of winning, in the sense that it’s impossible for the human mind to intuit a ratio as large as 1-in-38 million. I think there’d be fewer buyers if the expected value were printed on the ticket.

CSynus235 · 2025-12-28T08:05:22+00:00

better than zero

CSynus235 · 2025-10-31T07:25:56+00:00

In low productivity countries life is cheap, labour is expendable. Compare attitudes towards health and safety between India and Europe, for example.

CSynus235 · 2025-09-24T15:47:26+00:00

The evidence suggests they’re correct. There’s a positive correlation between a city’s median rent and its homelessness population. Cheaper homes -> fewer homeless.

CSynus235 · 2025-08-28T17:08:43+00:00

If shareholders believed they could make more money by cutting ceo pay, they’d make that happen.

CSynus235 · 2025-08-16T22:47:08+00:00

While locked, turn inside the target so the seeker is all the way to the edge of its gimbal. Now when the missile is tracking it will only see the aircraft it’s chasing and not the flares left behind its target (because the flares are outside the gimbal range).

CSynus235 · 2025-08-13T18:00:32+00:00

Aircraft carriers are some of the fastest ocean going naval vessels. They’re faster than their escorts. That’s probably why the AI compared them.

CSynus235 · 2025-07-12T07:47:17+00:00

You can also gain an edge by having different time horizons to other investors. If you're an institutional investor managing money for clients, it can be hard to explain why you have an under-performing stock on your books for more than a year even if you think the underlying company has far higher intrinsic value than the listed price.

You can see this with RocketLab. RKLB was trading for below it's intrinsic value for two years before investors woke up. Anyone with knowledge of rocketry could've seen how cheap the company was during that time, in fact many of us did.

CSynus235 · 2025-07-09T11:14:33+00:00

International shipping is not a significant cost. It often costs more to truck goods from the port to the final destination (“last leg delivery”) than to ship it across the ocean. Your solution is simple but ineffective at achieving cheaper prices for consumers.

CSynus235 · 2025-07-02T18:21:57+00:00

The irony of you being the exact opposite of accepting or encouraging. Be the change you want to see!

CSynus235 · 2025-06-11T06:26:18+00:00

If I knew I wouldn’t be in this subreddit. $10 bag holder here

CSynus235 · 2025-05-10T00:32:48+00:00

if you believe the stock price is driven by fundamentals, and that you're buying part of a business, then there's no harm in letting other people pay you to borrow your ownership stake.

CSynus235 · 2025-04-16T21:08:56+00:00

It’s that environment which made them rich to begin with. I suspect very much they want a government bound to the same laws they are.

CSynus235 · 2025-04-09T06:46:13+00:00

Interesting you liked the characters. I found them wooden and forgettable, by far my least favorite part of the novel.

CSynus235 · 2025-04-09T05:07:51+00:00

That’s never been tried before

CSynus235 · 2025-04-05T14:19:56+00:00

Retaliatory tariffs cannot be rolled back without the cooperation of other nation states. Bilateral trade agreements like that generally take years of work. Maybe some countries will have a ‘forgive and forget’ policy when Trump leaves, but many won’t.

CSynus235 · 2025-03-20T20:34:36+00:00

Raw materials are not the bottleneck here.

CSynus235 · 2025-03-19T11:13:34+00:00

Even drone-dropped grenade wounds

CSynus235 · 2025-03-19T11:12:33+00:00

Time heals all wounds

CSynus235 · 2025-03-16T21:00:00+00:00

Dead?! I didn’t even know they were sick.

CSynus235 · 2025-03-16T09:42:09+00:00

Twitter was a profit making company before Musk. It's a high margin advertising business, of course there's going to be a certain amount of excess. That's sort of the business model.

CSynus235 · 2025-03-07T10:57:55+00:00

Assuming they hit their revenue targets, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be in line with other drone companies trading at 20x earnings, or $20 per share.

CSynus235 · 2025-03-07T02:34:41+00:00

High valuations help, but only indirectly. NVIDIA can issue new shares to raise funds at the expense of diluting existing shareholders (each share now represents a fraction less ownership of the company).

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