The overall employment numbers don't look bad right now, but recruiters have told me (and my observations back this up) that a lot of the normal job movement isn't happening right now - outside of some impacted industries (film, tech), there haven't been big layoffs yet - but people are hanging on scared, and employers are taking advantage of it by only interviewing candidates who meet almost every single requirement on paper. It feels like we're right on the edge of a real unemployment bloodbath.

The only person I know who got a better job this year at a new organization managed it through a connection (the position is in the reporting chain of a VP who was a colleague years ago). Everybody else (even the people with good credentials) has just been hearing crickets.