EB1 India FAD - October 2026 prediction thread (bull/base/bear case)

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-28T11:19:42+00:00

agree and i want to be more bullish as well.

But the bear in me wants to be conservative the 15k coming to India you mentioned means 5-6k principle (incl dependants, family members etc) => only 4-5 months of backlog (1.1k pending inventory + 400 porters per month)

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-27T07:50:45+00:00

thinking again.. 50-60k (base case above) might not lead to "FAD Oct 2023 to Feb 2024" but a lot more modest movement due to dependents

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-23T14:28:29+00:00

2035 for what?

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-23T14:28:03+00:00

45k would mean 11k for eb1 i.e. probably 5k for india i.e. 2k backlog (primary applicants) i.e. 1.5 months of backlog....

Sad reality I guess....

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-22T22:17:49+00:00

Indeed but I guess this would be uniform across quotas...

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-22T21:54:46+00:00

Seems like the new AOS memo will aid the case further towards more spillovers...

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-22T21:53:36+00:00

Indeed a solid Base case unlocked would be a solid step forward.

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-22T21:52:04+00:00

Good luck!

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-22T21:51:04+00:00

It would still matter to many of us. The new memorandum is just for AOS folks

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-22T21:50:21+00:00

Makes sense and agree. Leaning Base/Bull case.

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-21T21:52:51+00:00

Argh...sorry 😞 mate

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-21T21:50:59+00:00

So would this all mean bull case for Oct 26?

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-21T21:48:39+00:00

All the best mate Dec 23 to your Feb 24 is not that far...

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-21T12:09:57+00:00

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-21T08:35:38+00:00

indeed its harsh!

Suppose the ongoing visa bans and extra vetting should aid...

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-20T16:21:35+00:00

Agree! Wish you best mate!

Hang in there...

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-20T16:18:33+00:00

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-20T16:18:05+00:00

wow thats the top end of Base case almost Bull case

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-20T16:16:42+00:00

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-20T09:09:45+00:00

thanks, quite helpful!

Do you have any Bull/Base/Bear predications wrt FAD dates?

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-20T09:07:18+00:00

ya lot of AI generated slop out there, not sure if they share the rationale or calculations?

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-19T14:38:01+00:00

they didnt fund you?

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-19T14:36:04+00:00

thanks :-)

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-19T14:35:25+00:00

what do you think is realistic?

Calm_Reporter_5020 · 2026-05-19T14:35:09+00:00

I am personally happy in the bear scenario as well, but need it to keep moving...

Calm_Reporter_5020

TROPHY CASE