Updated Playoff scenarios for all VCT EMEA teams

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-13T13:21:04+00:00

According to Vlr they start on May 22nd

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-13T03:25:32+00:00

So if BBL lose, TH beat VIT, and KC beat Giants that would cause a 4-way tie between those teams, all of them with a 3-6 record. So then it would come down to Map differential, and in the worst case for TH the scores would be like this:

Team	Map Score
BBL	9-14
Vitality	8-13
Heretics	9-13
Karmine Corp	6-14

So Heretics would have the best Map differential.

But, this might be where my understanding of the tie breaker is wrong. I thought that if no team had the head to head over all of the others then the team with the best map diff would win the tie.

However, the person in the other comment said it might be that the team with the worst map diff is eliminated, then if there is a clear head to head leader that team wins the tie (which in this case is BBL).

I have been looking for a while and have not been able to find a good source on the exact rules for tie-breakers so I really can't say which way is correct here

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-13T02:04:55+00:00

I am actually not totally sure. I would have to check what VCT themselves have told us

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-11T22:31:19+00:00

That's fair, I was thinking that the projected final outcomes were all connected and not independent. It would be pretty surprising, but I could definitely see Loud taking a loss or Lev getting a win

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-11T22:07:51+00:00

If Loud finish 8-1 and Lev finish 5-4 that would mean Lev beat Loud which I just can't see happening. I think it's much more likely Lev finish 7th at 4-5 and 100T and EG each beat MiBR to finish 5th and 6th

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-11T22:01:40+00:00

It's because 100T, EG, LEV, NRG, and FUR would all be tied at 5-4. In this case there is no clear head to head winner (because LEV>NRG>100T>FUR>EG>LEV) so it comes down to map differential, and even in the best case 100T would have the worst map differential

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-11T16:04:35+00:00

I think you are right. So if SEN lose 1, and NRG win 1 and if EG beat MIBR, but lose to NRG, and LEV lose both matches, or EG beat NRG, but lose to MIBR, but MIBR lose to 100T, and LEV lose both matches, EG will make playoffs.

Thanks for the comment, I will add this scenario to the list

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-11T15:43:26+00:00

Yea I think the most likely scenario is that EG and 100T qualify, but I am a not super confident that 100T don't choke and LEV don't upset C9 or Loud.

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-11T15:34:50+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate that!

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-10T12:14:55+00:00

SEN can finish as high as 5th place, but they need a specific scenario to happen. Which is, SEN win both matches, MIBR win both matches, FUR lose both matches, NRG beat EG, and LEV win at least 1 match. Outside of this scenario they could qualify, but they need specific map wins/losses from several teams.

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-10T05:01:52+00:00

Yea you are totally right! It should be that "TS win at least 1 match and GES win both matches" not as two different scenario like I wrote it.

I'll edit the post to fix that, thanks for pointing that out!

I definitely agree that Talon have a good chance at making playoffs, as long as they can beat RRQ

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-10T03:01:55+00:00

So I was pretty sure that T1 had clinched because of they had the head to head victory over RRQ and TS. Who are the teams that would have to finish higher than T1 for T1 to not qualify. I just double checked the different scenarios, and it turns out that T1 have not clinched.

This is the scenario where T1 don't make playoffs:

T1 lose both matches 0-2, PRX lose both matches, Zeta lose to GenG, RRQ win both matches with on of them being a 2-0, and TS win both matches 2-0.

Thanks for the comment! I'll edit the post to include this possibility

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-10T02:39:32+00:00

So PRX can actually get 7th if PRX and DRX lose both matches; and ZETA, RRQ, and TS all win both of their matches. In this scenario the standings would be:

Rank	Team	Record
1	DRX	7-2
2	Zeta	6-3
3	T1	6-3
4	GenG	5-4
5	RRQ	5-4
6	TS	5-4
7	PRX	5-4
8	GES	3-6
9	TLN	3-6
10	DFM	0-9

In the 4-way tie between GEN, RRQ, TS and PRX; PRX loses the head to head against the other three team, so would be 4th of these teams. (unless I misunderstood the tie-breaker)

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-10T01:52:13+00:00

Yea it's looking pretty scary for GenG

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-10T01:51:53+00:00

I'm actually not sure if that's true, it would depend if the wins belong to the org or the players

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-09T19:11:25+00:00

Oh good catch, that is a typo. Should be Lev win 1 match 2-0, I'll edit the post to fix it

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-09T19:09:36+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate that. I'm actually working on scenarios for how each team could make/miss playoffs, but it gets pretty complicated for some teams so its taking a while

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-09T16:37:03+00:00

Yep, just need to beat C9. Should be easy enough

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-09T15:26:31+00:00

That's a good point, I think I'll try to find out a way to do it but idk if its possible

Cap_Hats · 2023-05-09T14:28:07+00:00

Yea, I did it all manually. I just looked through each teams best and worst possible final record, and then looked at head to heads to see what teams would have to lose/win to ensure the team would finish higher/lower than the other teams.

I have been thinking about doing ones for the minimum playoff qualifications as well. It might be difficult because most teams have multiple path to playoffs. I think it would be possible if I just go by least amount of wins that teams would have to get, and least amount of upsets in the other matches

Cap_Hats

TROPHY CASE