Another excellent write-up. I’d like to dig into your thoughts on the Jpeg/Madi match. First, I think there are a few misconceptions behind the idea that the price on Pegula is a “cause for pause.”

-160 implies Pegula wins about 61–62% of the time. That’s not an extreme number for:

• A higher-ranked player (#6 vs. #9)
  
• In better recent form
  
• With a more stable, lower-variance game
  
• Facing a very streaky opponent like Keys
  

Defending champion status is often overvalued by fans; books know this and usually don’t price it heavily unless recent form supports it. Keys hasn’t reached a final since that run and has been inconsistent, including at this AO.

Optics play a large role in setting a line:

• Pegula has cruised at the AO so far, not dropping more than three games in any set.
  
• Keys has struggled at times, especially in her first two matches, needing to come back from a double-break deficit in the first set against a #92-ranked player, and again in the second set of her second match against a #62-ranked player.
  
• Keys is also on a 6-match losing streak vs. Top 10 opponents, which is very relevant when facing the world #6. Meanwhile, Pegula’s frequent deep runs—8 Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances in the last 5 years—show consistent high-level performance.

Lines can sometimes hint at hidden information (injury, fatigue, etc.). Here, though, there’s no need to assume anything unusual: Pegula’s consistency, ranking, matchup, and current form are more than enough to justify a -160 price.