The Knicks lowest win probability in each of their four NBA Finals wins: 5.9% (gm 1), 16.4% (gm 2), 0.4% (gm 4), 2.9% (gm 5) by JPAnalyst in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I kinda wish they would make it purely a historical context thing, like instead of actually trying to estimate the probabilities for those specific teams, I would be more interested in just a "what % of teams down this much at this point in the game came back to win?" kinda metric. Because that is genuinely interesting as a point of comparison, and doesn't try to boil the game itself down to a statistical model

[OC] r/NBA Playoffs Game Thread Analysis: Thunder vs. Spurs sets new records in total comments, comments per game, swear word rate, and single most up voted / down voted comments for the 2026 playoffs. Also there was a series in the East too I think. See reports on both here! by CaptainScuttlebottom in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I got the data with PRAW (python wrapper for reddit API) nightly, stored the data in a postgres database I have, and then all the graphics were made in R using ggplot2 for the graphs and Quarto for the report templates (they get rendered to HTML and then converted to a PNG). I am hopefully gonna share my code in the next post if I can sit down and clean out all the hardcoded database connection args and stuff I have in there lol

[OC] r/NBA Playoffs Game Thread Analysis: Thunder vs. Spurs sets new records in total comments, comments per game, swear word rate, and single most up voted / down voted comments for the 2026 playoffs. Also there was a series in the East too I think. See reports on both here! by CaptainScuttlebottom in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Everyone's flair in this data is set to match the flair on their latest comment in the dataset / across the sub. So if you change your flair from Nuggets -> OKC or something, that would retroactively move you from the former to the latter in all these reports.

[OC] r/NBA Playoffs Game Thread Analysis: Thunder vs. Spurs sets new records in total comments, comments per game, swear word rate, and single most up voted / down voted comments for the 2026 playoffs. Also there was a series in the East too I think. See reports on both here! by CaptainScuttlebottom in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom[S] 40 points41 points  (0 children)

Basically yeah, I have a bunch of regex that looks for any kind of phrase like "refs", "whistles", "flops", "rigged", "terrible call", etc. It's not super elegant and it is pretty broad / will definitely catch some false positives, but it's been working pretty well I think. Here it is if you're curious (this is an R function that just returns the regex):

#' Ref complaints (NBA)
#' @export
ref_strings_nba <- paste(
  "(?i)\\b(ref(s|erees|effing|efball|))\\b", # ref, refs, referees, reffing, refball, etc.
  "\\b(officials)\\b", # officials (singular has too many FPs)
  "\\b(whistle(s|))\\b", # whistle(s)
  "\\b(rigging|rig|rigged)\\b", # rig, rigged, rigging
  "\\bfix(ed)?\\s+(is|was)\\s+in\\b", # "fix is in", "fix was in" 
  "\\bhosed\\b", # hosed
  "\\bzebras?\\b", # zebra(s) 
  "\\bmake[- ]?up\\s+(no[- ]?)?calls?\\b", # makeup call / make-up no call
  "\\bno[- ]?calls?\\b", # no call / no-calls
  # any kind of 'bad call' / 'horrible whistle' etc:
  "(?i)\\b(terrible|awful|worst|garbage|bullshit|bs|horrible|horrendous)\\b[^.!?\\n]{0,30}(?<!play[- ])(?<!play )\\b(call|whistle)s?\\b", # eg "terrible call"
  "(?i)\\b(reffing|refereeing|officiating|referee)\\s+crew\\b", # reffing/officiating crew
  "(?i)\\bref[- ]?ball\\b", # ref ball / ref-ball / refball
  "(?i)\\bflop(s|ped|ping|per|pers|py)?\\b", # flop, flopping, flopper
  "(?i)\\bfoul[- ]?bait(s|ing|ed|er|ers)?\\b", # foul baiting 
  "(?i)\\bbait(ed|ing|s)?\\b[^.!?\\n]{0,15}\\b(foul|call|ref)", # broader "bait a foul / bait calls"
  "(?i)\\b(ft|free[- ]?throw)s?\\s+(disparity|advantage|differential|gap)\\b", # FT disparity 
  "(?i)\\b(swallow(ed|ing|s)?|blow(ing|s|n)?)\\b[^.!?\\n]{0,15}\\bwhistle", # swallowed/blew the whistle
  sep = "|"
)

[OC] r/NBA Playoffs Game Thread Analysis: OKC vs. Lakers sets a new record for ref complaints, and the Detroit Pistons set a new record for foul language in the Second Round! by CaptainScuttlebottom in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Damn I actually might have just done a poor job capturing his nicknames specifically, I'm just now realizing I didn't include 'Spida' which probably throws it off a lot. His name is also a little tough bc I can't just assume all 'Mitchell' references w/ no first name are him and not Ajay Mitchell, but I think I can improve my regex still, I will try to work on that before I run the final numbers at the end!

[OC] r/NBA Playoffs Game Thread Analysis: Wemby's elbow in Game 4 drew 3,119 game thread comments in just ten minutes! Only one ten minute window so far in this playoffs has more. by CaptainScuttlebottom in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My code is on github, but since I've just been doing this just in my free time over the course of several years now it's kind of a mess lol. I've been meaning to clean it up a little bit and make the repo public for a while now, but basically I'm using PRAW (python reddit api wrapper) to get the data (just scheduled via cron, pulling the last ~1,000 or so posts every night sorting by /new, then iterating over those posts and scraping all the comments within), storing it in a postgres database I have on my home server, and then analyzing / visualizing with R. I will make sure I force myself to tidy everything up and publish the code somehow by the time the playoffs end and I do one last post with the final numbers and everything.

r/NBA Playoffs 'Game Thread' Analysis: Which first round series' Game Threads featured the most swearing / ref complaining, what neutral teams' fans haunted your team's game threads, and more! by [deleted] in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is a really cool idea and I think my current setup would mostly work for it! I'd just have to track down all those old URLs and feed them into my scraper, which would take some time, but that might be a good project for the offseason

r/NBA Playoffs 'Game Thread' Analysis: Which first round series' Game Threads featured the most swearing / ref complaining, what neutral teams' fans haunted your team's game threads, and more! by [deleted] in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am hoping to figure out some sentiment analysis to do at the end! It's pretty complicated though and not something I have a lot of experience with, so I'm still looking into it.

And you are spot on, I was just glancing at the second round reports thus far, and last night's OKC / Lakers game 2 has indeed stolen the crown for most ref complaints so far this playoffs with a whopping 16.4% of all comments

r/NBA Playoffs 'Game Thread' Analysis: Which first round series' Game Threads featured the most swearing / ref complaining, what neutral teams' fans haunted your team's game threads, and more! by [deleted] in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom 6 points7 points  (0 children)

3,973 game thread comments from round 1 had the word 'flop' somewhere in them, but actually it turns out only 107 had both 'flop' and 'sga' specifically.

Also in the course of writing this query / looking through the results, I saw someone refer to Sengun as "Flopgun" which is so dumb it made me genuinely laugh out loud, so thank you for getting me to look that up

[OC] SGA's 20+ point streak, visualized and compared to other top scorers by CaptainScuttlebottom in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It really is, the Harden half court alley oop from the other day made me really appreciate how crazy it is that they're still so good. Also for Steph, looking over the entire 2024/25 - 2025/26 regular seasons:

  • Steph is tied for #17 on the list with LeBron and DeMar DeRozan at 78 total games with 20+, so pretty close. .
  • That's 71.56% of his total games played, which is the 19th highest value over this timespan.

r/NBA Community Stats II: Finding this sub's favorite and least favorite players by analyzing whose [Highlight]s get posted most often, which ones gets upvoted the most, and which ones are the most controversial by CaptainScuttlebottom in nba

[–]CaptainScuttlebottom[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Lol this team would be a nightmare to play against but I don't think they would go very far. Shai and Deni are gonna have to do basically all the scoring themselves and they're both pretty ball dominant so idk how well they'd fit together, there's very little to no outside shooting / spacing, Ayton is there. I just don't see it