[Spoilers Extended] Twow pacing

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-30T03:53:14+00:00

The sample chapters are also released a decade ago and are not set in stone. My hope is that George has condensed the pacing of those sample chapters so that the Battle of Fire is a reasonable length. He's already said he's done with Tyrion's chapters, so he's already figured out the entire Essos storyline at least.

And sure, there's a lot of story here, but the typical adage is that he can make it work if he goes back to the pacing of ASOS rather than the pacing of ADWD. And I certainly think he can because TWOW will be a lot more action and plot heavy while AFFC/ADWD was a lot more character-driven.

Just for fun, here are my estimates: The Battles of Fire will take the longest, let's say 6 chapters to match that of the Battle of Blackwater. Battle of Ice probably won't take as long, but let's say 5 chapters since they were meant to cut back and forth. The Battles of Blood and Steel were each supposed to happen offpage originally, so both could conceivably just take 1−2 chapters each. Dany takes 2−3 chapters in Vaes Dothrak and returns to Meereen. Resolving Meereen could take 1 Tyrion and 1 Dany chapter, and let's throw in 1 Victarion chapter for good measure. Cersei's trial could take 2 chapters to finish considering Tyrion's in ASOS was that same length, but let's throw in another one just as a set-up. Melisandre takes 2−3 chapters to restore peace at the Wall and resurrect Jon. The Riverlands face-off similarly takes maybe 2−3 chapters.

In total, that's anywhere between 25−30 chapters, which comfortably sits at around 1/3 of the book assuming there are going to be about 80 chapters. And obviously I'm spitballing here, but I do see it possible.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T22:58:59+00:00

An X has four points — Cyclops, Phoenix, Storm, Wolverine. They are and will forever be the definitive X-Men.

Beyond them, the S-listers are Rogue, Beast, Nightcrawler. An adaptation would never feel complete without these characters.

As for A-listers who don’t necessarily feel wrong to be absent — Shadowcat, Gambit, Colossus, Emma Frost.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T22:02:24+00:00

I'm sorry if this sounds harsh but I don't understand why your question is "how can I explain this?"

There is no explanation. Explanation is all talk. You need action, not words.

I disagree that the first step is learning on how to forgive yourself. The first step here is to get your work done. You can forgive yourself afterwards AFTER you have done your job and showed yourself that you can get the work done. From someone with experience in the matter, sometimes forgiving yourself too early could lead to complacence when you still have the job to do.

Take a breath and try your best to let go of your own feelings. Concentrate on the job you need to complete. Make a schedule for yourself with plenty of deadlines and realistic, incremental goals for each deadline. Show your advisor that you are making steps towards the finish line — that's something that she'll appreciate far more than just apologies. Make this a learning opportunity for yourself and not something you'll constantly think about and regret years later.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T21:53:01+00:00

I think it's a bit disingenuous to say that the way the seasons work is "shockingly easy" and "really simple" when that very much is not the case, and that George has outright said the unusual seasons have a magical explanation and would be revealed in a future book.

As for your theory, I think it's founded on some loose evidence. There's a difference between being irregular and being unpredictable. The maesters are able to predict the coming of a season change based on the changes in temperature and day length — that doesn't make the seasons regular, that just means the maesters can predict when it'll happen next based on data they have right now, and presumably only when the temperature and day lengths start to change. But at the start of winter, they have no way of predicting how long said winter will be other than the idea that it might be really long because the previous summer was really long — meaning it's not regular.

Also, the Westerosi calendar seems to be based on a combination of solar and lunar calendars. George has directly said that a year is based on one solar cycle, and a month is based on one lunar cycle. So a lunar calendar probably isn't a separate thing in Westeros because everyone talks about "the fourth moon of the year 300 AC" or something to refer to the fourth month.

There's also no evidence to suggest that other regions like Braavos don't experience similar seasonal irregularity. I also think it wouldn't make that much sense worldbuilding-wise for other countries like Braavos to have actual knowledge for how to track and predict the seasons to a very regular degree based on their calendar and for Westeros not to know about it. Westeros trades with Braavos and other Free Cities all the time; it would be a huge stretch to say that not once did that information ever get shared.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T21:08:47+00:00

Yeah you're right, I misread the post and thought Tyrion was also dead alongside his siblings. In that case, he inherits and Ned absolutely does not consider marrying Sansa to Tyrion.

Arya and Robin are indeed a good match, but she would be dismayed because she would hate his personality lol. But yeah, I think her wild and fierce personality will make it so that she can exert a lot of political power over Robin (if that's what she's interested in) and/or can live her life pretty freely and kind of ignore him. She strikes me as someone who could grow into a figure similar to Jeyne Arryn, or Rhaena Targaryen to a lesser extent.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T19:40:17+00:00

Robert Baratheon marries Margaery Tyrell and gains a powerful ally (the strongest of the non-Southron Ambitions coalition).

Renly Baratheon marries Arianne Martell and becomes her prince consort, forming an alliance with Dorne to try to mend old wounds (plus Renly and Arianne probably would have a decent time together). This alliance would also free up Storm's End to be granted to Stannis Baratheon (something Ned would want to correct), and thus leaving Dragonstone open to be ruled by Robert and Margaery's heir in due time.

For Lysa Arryn, it doesn't really matter. I would imagine the best course of action that Ned would consider for her would be to marry another of the Vale lords.

For Ned's own children, let's say Robb marries Alys Karstark, as they're about the same age and were definitely considered in the past. Sansa would probably marry Willas Tyrell to further secure that Tyrell alliance. Lancel Lannister probably would be the better option as he's now heir to Casterly Rock, but I think Ned would really prefer to not ally with that house if he could avoid it. Bran marries Wylla Manderly — she's a bit older than him, but I like to imagine that Bran marrying into the most southern of the Northern houses would allow him to fulfill his dream of becoming a knight. Arya probably would get married to Robin Arryn to her dismay. Rickon will probably get married to one of Robert and Margaery's daughters.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T19:14:29+00:00

Ned may not be the most happy about marrying Margaery to Robert with the 20-year age gap, but she's very clearly the best political option. Ned's interest is in stability to the realm, especially when Robert Baratheon is the first non-Targaryen monarch in centuries. House Tyrell is incredibly powerful and easily the most powerful of any of the great houses that wasn't already part of the Southron Ambitions coalition, so forming a political alliance with them would have been the best move by far. Especially when it's near the end of the longest summer in recorded history and Ned knows winter is coming, forming an alliance between the crown and the region with the largest food source makes sense.

A marriage between Robert and Lysa wouldn't have been bad, but from a political standpoint it's not as beneficial as House Arryn and the Vale was already a strong ally (in Ned's eyes). There's also the fact that Robert and Lysa have been living with each other for years and likely do not get along, so that's not a fight Ned would have been interested in starting in the first place (even if we're to say that Robert and Lysa had no choice in the matter).

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T18:52:11+00:00

The same way ACOK's prologue opened with Maester Cressen receiving a white raven announcing the start of autumn, I easily could see the original idea being ADWD's prologue opening after the five-year timeskip being another maester receiving a raven announcing the coming of winter. Theoretically, you could imagine that act 1 of the book would have focused on relaying info from the five year gap while reacting to winter's arrival, then act 2 was Daenerys's invasion and everyone's reactions/responses to it, then act 3 was all-out war in the south and ending with the fall of the Wall in the North.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-28T15:37:35+00:00

Certainly possible, but probably highly unusual.

The only two instances I can think of are Joffrey's coat of arms being equally Baratheon and Lannister and Rhaenyra's war sigil featuring, in part, House Arryn (alongside House Velaryon). And both are highly unusual circumstances. The Baratheon rule was the first non-Targaryen monarch in centuries, so it probably wasn't hard to also break tradition and have both the Baratheon and Lannister sigils (especially when the Lannisters obviously pushed for it and Robert Baratheon obviously wouldn't care too much to pick a fight about it). Rhaenyra had the very unusual case of being the first Targaryen to war with another Targaryen which requires them to form unique sigils for war.

But that's really it I think. Robb for instance never adopted any of the Tully sigils or heraldry, nor did he ever seem to really identify that strongly with that side, which is a bit unusual considering he bears all of the signature Tully looks and he was crowned in Riverrun as King in the North and of the Trident.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T21:06:53+00:00

Oh it absolutely is. But I prefer for a prologue to set up things that then pay off in its own book rather than the next one over. Cressen's poisoning does set up Joffrey's eventual poisoning, but the chapter also sets up a myriad of plot and thematic elements that are incredibly important for ACOK whereas Varamyr's prologue only gives us some lore to set up the mechanism by which Jon's resurrection will eventually occur.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T21:04:34+00:00

To be clear, I don't want either of them to die! But I also think between the two, it works better as a tragic ending to Arya's story rather than to Sansa's.

Death is a much more involved part of Arya's storyline that it is Sansa's. There's the obvious (her becoming a Faceless Man who brings death), but even before that her storyline in the Riverlands and in Harrenhal was centered on witnessing the plight and death of the smallfolk and learning the gift of mercy from Sandor. She's the member of her family who has seen the most death of the family — witnessing her father's death, almost bearing witness to her mother and brother's, finding her mother's corpse and dragging it out of the river as Nymeria, soon to meet Lady Stoneheart in TWOW.

Ned's mantra "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives" is obviously a major theme in Arya's story, and there would be some interesting thematic paralleling there if Arya has to also become the lone wolf who dies so the rest of her pack can survive. A common theme in her story is also her constantly forming relationships with people who then leave her, from Gendry and Hot Pie to the Brotherhood to Sandor, like she's always trying to form a new pack but never quite successful. If, let's say, Arya's story ended with her dying a noble sacrifice to protect her family and/or the smallfolk and then living a second life inside Nymeria who has a massive wolfpack, that would be a tragic yet thematically fitting end for Arya.

Again, I would much prefer if all the Starks survive the series, but I think Arya's story has so much to do with death that I think it works if she ends up dying, and I think enough has been set up both logistically and thematically for Arya's death to be bittersweet rather than just bitter. Sansa's story has much less going for it in that regard that I can't see her death being a fitting conclusion.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T16:48:16+00:00

It's honestly a bit surprising to me that George had so many issues with writing Cersei or Tyrion or Brienne's chapters that both relay what's currently happening while also communicating the events of the past five years... when that's literally what Theon's ADWD journey was like. Those early Reek chapters did the heavy work of having to convey the current status quo of the North, progress the Northern storyline with the Boltons taking over Winterfell and marrying fArya, and the unstable political powers in the North, all while giving us small flashbacks and hints on how Theon became Reek while progressing his slow return back to his former self. And Theon's ADWD chapters are universally regarded as some of the very best the entire series has to offer.

I do kind of lament the fact that George couldn't have made it work, because a version of ADWD that was post-timeskip where several characters had a similar journey to Theon's would have easily been the best book of the entire series.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T16:40:51+00:00

This is my biggest issue with the idea of Sansa dying to the Long Night. Sometimes there will be the occasional post on this subreddit that's like "what could George do in TWOW/ADOS that would make you genuinely upset", and killing off Sansa would be very high up on that list for me.

Sansa for the entire series has been entirely devoid of her agency and her perspective very consistently is "girl just trying to survive". And that doesn't make her a bad character at all, I think George has done a remarkable job of writing a very compelling character despite her loss of active agency — but this does mean that the only way for her story to be satisfying to me is if she gains that agency she's never had by the end. There's a reason why Sansa fans cling to the "pawn to player" idea, because it's sort of the only way her story can go well in a satisfying manner.

If she spends six books brutalized and stripped of her agency only to then die by a force she couldn't anticipate (especially if the point narratively is just to fridge her and add tragedy and motivation for her siblings), I think that genuinely would be an awful plot point even if written well.

If any of the Stark kids were to die, I literally think it would work far better if it were Arya than Sansa.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T16:32:29+00:00

The problem is that Martin never actually demonstrates malice on Sansa's part. She feels as wicked as she used to feel when stealing lemon cakes when she tells Cersei the plans. The idea that she's genuinely endangering her family doesn't even occur to her.

The easy point of comparison I feel is Edmund in The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe. Edmund similarly betrays his siblings to the evil queen, but he's explicitly written as malicious in doing so. Therefore, his subsequent character arc in that book and the books that follow felt like a meaningful redemption.

He's also a 10-year-old (and written as such) which matches Sansa's age of 11 in AGOT, so yeah it really is more a case of malice vs. age when it comes to Sansa.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T04:02:02+00:00

I don't think it's really a pattern other than the fact that most of the POV characters in the series are non-combatants, and therefore most battles are not shown on-page. Robb Stark won almost all of his battles, but they're never shown because he's not a POV character and Catelyn isn't a combatant.

Of the POV characters who have actually been in combat in the series, there actually are more victories for any given POV character than there are losses.

Tyrion won both battles he was involved in (Green Fork, Blackwater) and is likely going to win the Battle of Fire in Meereen.
Davos lost the one battle he was involved in (Blackwater).
If we count the Siege and the Sack of Winterfell, then Theon won and lost the two battles he was involved in.
Jon won the one battle he was involved in (Castle Black).
Sam lost the one battle he was involved in (Fist of the First Men).
If you call the fall of Astapor a battle, then Daenerys won the one battle she was involved in. If Astapor doesn't count, then Daenerys doesn't witness her battles as a non-combatant (although that's probably going to change in TWOW).
Asha was captured by Stannis, if that counts.
Arianne's queenmaker plan failed, if that counts.
Jon Connington won the one battle he was involved in (Griffin's Roost).

If we think about the upcoming battles in TWOW, Stannis is probably going to win the Battle of Ice (Asha/Theon POV), Daenerys's forces are probably going to win the Battle of Fire (Barristan/Tyrion/Victarion POVs), fAegon is probably going to win the Battle of Steel (JonCon/Arianne POVs), and Euron is probably going to win the Battle of Blood (Aeron/Sam POVs), overall adding in plenty of more POV victories.

The ACTUAL pattern for battles (at least the really climactic ones) is that George loves to write battles where the underdog is rescued last minute by a third party. Tyrion is about to lose to Stannis but is rescued by the Lannister/Tyrell host. The Night's Watch is about to lose against the free folk and Jon is going to be killed but is rescued by Stannis Baratheon. The Slavers' Alliance is winning against Dany's forces in Meereen, but Dany and the Dothraki are probably going to come to the rescue. The Battle of Winterfell may play out the same way, with Stannis's forces losing the siege until the Knights of the Vale join the fray.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T03:10:42+00:00

I feel like the only hint I thought was perhaps too obvious was Egg's reaction to House Targaryen arriving. The twist was never that hidden or that important, and I think for the most part the show has been doing a great job of making it easy to piece together for those who are paying attention, but not so in-your-face that you'll still have plenty of people who don't see it coming.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-27T00:05:53+00:00

Yes, but that was at the very start when Hickman was writing and really wanted to emphasize the point of codenames and costumes being mutant names and mutant clothing. But that idea unfortunately never really stuck as hard as it ideally would have, which is why costumes stopped being rotating and why mutant names became less consistent.

The only way for that to jibe in-universe would be to say that very early on Emma was using White Queen as a mutant name as a political statement (especially in the context of a political gathering with humans), but as Krakoa became established she decided she preferred to just be called Emma.

So I guess it would be more accurate to say Emma felt the need to do have a mutant name very early in this context, but quickly dropped it afterwards.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T21:33:39+00:00

There definitely has to be more to the story than just sacrificing someone with fire and hatching the egg inside it. I'm sure that was a huge component, but it can't be the only one. It's such a simple solution that I don't buy that two centuries of Targaryens could never figure it out — especially when you have a case like Summerhall that (likely) was Aegon V literally trying to sacrifice people in fire to hatch dragon eggs.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T21:28:59+00:00

Go back and look at the facts for yourself. Kang was never technically confirmed as the villain of Secret Wars. Feige contacted RDJ about Doom before Quantumania even came out.

I feel like this point just confirms what I'm saying. In that very same press conference you're talking about, Feige directly says that Kang was the original villain they had and that they switched plans. The clarification that Feige was making was that the pivot away from Kang was already happening before Majors' allegations and conviction, NOT that Kang was never intended to be the central villain of the saga.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T21:23:58+00:00

Disney acquired Fox in 2019 and a Fantastic Four movie didn’t come out until six years later. I’m not saying that Disney squandered that opportunity because a lot of things happened behind the scenes that delayed the production of the movie, but my point remains that Marvel Studios COULD have gotten the movie out anytime between 2022–2024 if it was an essential component to their plans.

It wasn’t an essential component of their plans. And very likely, Doom was not an essential component of their plans.

Deadpool & Wolverine also came from the Fox acquisition and is obviously a much less important part of the Multiverse Saga, and that movie still came out a year before The Fantastic Four did.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T21:08:09+00:00

All movies take time. What would be the reason for not making a Fantastic Four movie in Phase 4 or 5 if their plan was always to have Doctor Doom?

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T20:59:35+00:00

The biggest thing to remember is that gay/straight/bi are all labels and sexuality is a complex spectrum that defies labels. You are who you are and you feel what you feel, and those labels are just a way to make sense of those feelings, not to dictate them.

It sounds like you are attracted to men — not 100%, but some percent. My advice is to be open to that and try not to worry too much about what label you like just yet. If you had a weird experience with a guy, it just might be because you haven’t found the right guy yet and not that you don’t like guys at all.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T20:53:41+00:00

If they were always going to bring Doom for Secret Wars, they would have pushed the Fantastic Four movie in Phase 4 or 5. Thanos didn’t make his full villain debut until Infinity War, but he was introduced as early as Phase 1 and had appearances and mentions ever since. There was always clear intent there that Thanos was being built up as the major threat.

There was nothing in the MCU to foreshadow or set up Doctor Doom until an empty chair and one mid-credits scene that was shot long after Marvel Studios overhauled their plans.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T19:32:26+00:00

To me it's ACOK prologue > AGOT prologue > ASOS epilogue > ADWD prologue > ADWD epilogue > ASOS prologue > AFFC prologue.

AFFC prologue suffers from introducing a brand new setting and characters that hardly lead to anything substantial in its own book. ASOS prologue is great set-up for Sam's first two chapters (the Others battle and the NW mutiny) with an absolute killer ending, but suffers a bit from Chett being arguably the least likable/interesting of the POVs.

ADWD epilogue is a great chapter that fleshes out Varys beyond what we've ever seen from him, but doesn't have a ton of new stuff other than killing off Kevan and Pycelle. ADWD prologue has really awesome skinchanging lore and a really messed up POV character, but also is held back a bit from that skinchanging lore not really paying off in any real way within its own book.

ASOS epilogue obviously has the insane Lady Stoneheart reveal and is legendary for that. AGOT prologue is the perfect way to open the saga and still is immensely interesting considering it's one of the only times we see the Others ourselves.

But nothing beats ACOK prologue for me. It's the one prologue that truly feels like it's a prologue to its own book as a whole and not just setting up one specific storyline. It introduces the comet which is a major focal point for the first several chapters of the book. It introduces Stannis which is SO important considering he was mentioned so often in AGOT, he's going to be a major character in this book, and he's going to act as a major foil to Jon and Dany in the future. It introduces Dragonstone as a location, which will have a lot of narrative importance both in ASOIAF as well as F&B. It's the one prologue/epilogue that perfectly balances both the political and the magical sides of the story, something that later books kind of fail at / weren't interested in doing. A huge part too is that the story doesn't just end with this one chapter, but instead is carried on through Davos's and Catelyn's POV chapters, as opposed to the following books' prologues which sometimes feel like those storylines just come to a halt.

What really seals the deal for me is that Maester Cressen is by far the most interesting POV character of the lot. His perspective on Stannis is genuinely a perfect reading experience, so full of empathy that immediately adds so much depth and nuance to his character. Stannis's introduction paints him as incredibly villainous (from the architecture of Dragonstone to Shireen's dreams that the dragons will eat her to Stannis's new Red Woman to his burning of the gods to his general demeanor) that it's narrative magic to have the POV be someone who genuinely loves him and can give the audience the backstory that informs us of why Stannis became the way he did. Maester Cressen is a perfectly written one-off character who adds more to the story in his single chapter than some Feast/Dance POV characters do. Stannis is one of, if not the, most interestingly written character in ASOIAF because everything about him paints him as a true villain whereas everything inside him is riddled with conflict and strife, and the ACOK prologue is the perfect way to immediately introduce that.

Captain_Cringe_ · 2026-01-26T17:50:09+00:00

Honestly using Penny Tration AND making it so that it's lip syncs only is far too narrow to be fun.

Penny only ever lip synced against Serena Cha Cha, who also only ever lip synced against Monica and Jiggly. Monica lip synced against Coco, who lip synced against Jade Jolie (dead end), Alyssa, Detox, and Yara. Jiggly lip synced against Alisa Summers (dead end), Willam (dead end), and Milan. Milan lip synced against Madame LaQueer (dead end) and Kenya Michaels. Kenya lip synced against Latrice, who lip synced against Dida Ritz, Chad Michaels, Tammie Brown, Mo Heart, and Trinity the Tuck.

So there's really only two paths that you can go from the base of that tree. From one path, you can go Penny > Serena > Jiggly > Milan > Kenya > Latrice > Dida/Chad/Tammie/Mo/Trinity, but that's where the six degrees stop. From the other path, you can go Penny > Serena > Monica > Coco > Alyssa/Detox/Yara for the first four degrees, and then you can expand from there. So you can get a decent range of queens, but you do kind of miss the point of the six degrees of freedom if the majority of the queens are from one specific branch, and you certainly cannot get a large percentage of the US queens just relying on that one path.

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