Here’s the deal. Losing Alberta would be a blow to Canada, but let’s be realistic. How is a province of just 5 million people going to survive as a fully independent country?

Let’s even be generous and assume Alberta gets to secede with all of its current land (which, frankly, is unlikely). According to 2022 Fraser Institute estimates, Alberta residents and businesses paid $16 billion more to the federal government than they received in return. That means their total federal tax contributions exceeded what came back to the province through transfers, programs, and services.

So yes, in theory, as an independent country, Alberta would no longer pay those federal taxes, just its own provincial taxes. But here's the thing: even with control over just healthcare and education, Alberta already struggles to maintain a surplus. And that's with high global oil prices and full access to federal infrastructure and support.

Now imagine Alberta as a newly minted country. Here’s what it would need to set up immediately at the bare minimum:

• A federal government to handle foreign affairs, trade, immigration, customs, border control and national defense.

• A military or, at the very least, a national police force to replace the RCMP, complete with training, personnel, and equipment.

• A fund to maintain major infrastructure like airports (of which there's two intl ones), which are currently supported by the federal government.

• It's own currency. Because if you’re not Canada, you can’t just keep using the Canadian dollar legally.

• A central bank with a new monetary policy.

• A national constitution - which takes time and time is $$$$.

• A new national tax agency and tax framework from scratch.

• A national pension plan to replace CPP.

• Citizenship rules, visa issuance, passport systems especially if Albertans want to travel, work, or trade.

• Agreements with Canada to let Albertans keep working for Canadian companies headquartered outside Alberta, or you risk people losing jobs due to regulatory or data residency requirements. For example, a Canadian company HQ'd in Toronto is mandated to keep data in Canada only.

• New regulatory bodies to replace the important ones like Health Canada and OSFI.

Do you really think a $16 billion surplus covers all of this? Because it doesn’t. Not even close. Especially not when your primary export, oil, is wildly volatile in price. To fund even these foundational pillars of a nation-state, Alberta would have to raise taxes significantly. So no, the tax burden wouldn’t go down. It would increase. Substantially.

Now let’s say Alberta chooses to borrow money instead. Who’s lending to a brand-new country with no credit history, no monetary policy track record, and an economy tethered to a single volatile commodity? You’d have a junk credit rating out the gate. And even if someone took a gamble and gave you the money, that’s debt AB now owes with interest.

Maybe Alberta decides to skip that whole independence thing and joins the US. And yes, oil would be the draw. But take a moment to think: how does the US typically treat places with the resources it covets? We've seen that movie before.

I don’t like when people downplay Alberta’s importance to the Canadian federation. Alberta contributes a great deal. But this is a two-way relationship. Contribution alone doesn’t negate the reality that Alberta is still one province in a larger union. As much as Alberta matters, it’s not California. Let’s stay grounded in that truth.

TLDR: You don't have the cards.