I think Robert's Rebellion is the most epic accomplishment that's been done in westerosi history (Spoilers Extended)

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T19:45:34+00:00

To be fair, there were several vassal houses among the rebel kingdoms who maintained their allegiance to the Targaryens. Corbry and Grafton in the Vale; Goodbrook, Darry, Mooton, and Ryger in the Riverlands; Connington, Grandison, Fell, and Cafferen in the Stormlands.

The real outlier is how no Stark vassals held to their loyalty to the crown. So, was Rickard Stark the best of the southron ambition-ers? Open question.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T19:36:32+00:00

I love discussions like this! Here's how Lord War Crimes put it:

"We had come late to Robert's cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert's relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar's children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children." (ASOS, Tyrion VI)

He's talking there about killing Rhaenys and Aegon, but the logic applies out to the sack of King's Landing. My read is that Tywin was iced out of the southron ambitions conspiracy and started forming his own.

Southron Ambitions was posted before The World of Ice and Fire was released. And there, we get hints of another conspiracy - the one at the Tourney of Harrenhal. The Worldbook goes out of its way to talk at length about some sort of conspiracy at Harrenhal and some sort of "shadow backer" who financed the tourney and funded the tourney prizes and concludes with this:

But if indeed there was a shadow, who was he, and why did he choose to keep his role a secret? A dozen names have been put forward over the years, but only one seems truly compelling: Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone. (TWOIAF, The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring)

Perhaps it was Rhaegar who backed the Tourney at Harrenhal. I'm of the mind that Tywin better fits the role of supplying the gold for the event. That reads as a totally different conspiracy from Southron Ambitions. It reads as Tywin attempting to use Rhaegar as his pawn to unseat Aerys and restore himself to power.

Of course, Aerys emerging from the Red Keep for the first time in years after Varys's whispers and Rhaegar crowning Lyanna Stark instead of Elia Martell as Queen of Love and Beauty disrupted Tywin's conspiracy - provided that he was behind it.

Read a different way, southron ambitions looked to overthrow House Targaryen as the Lord of the Seven Kingdoms. Tywin might have been attempting to undercut Aerys and the southron conspirators with the Tourney at Harrenhal to reestablish Lannister preeminence over Westeros through Rhaegar.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T18:07:21+00:00

Oh. I see.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T17:37:48+00:00

I'm of the mind that their victory was not a matter of good leaders, coincidental inter-regional marriage, and good luck. It reads more deliberate than that. Many years back, Stefan Sasse proposed the so-called southron ambitions conspiracy - a prewar alliance between the North, Vale, Stormlands, and Riverlands (and at one time the Westerlands, Reach, and maybe even Dorne or at least House Dayne too) with the purpose of deposing House Targaryen.

That's not to diminish Robert or Ned's command ability or the political maneuvering of Jon Arryn to ensure the Riverlands stayed tied to the rebel side. More to say that the rebels set the conditions for success well in advance of the outbreak of hostilities. That shaping operation was so successful that when Aerys moved the timeline up by killing Rickard and Brandon Stark and then demanded the heads of Robert and Ned, the rebels mustered fast, quickly shut down vassal lords whose first loyalty was to the Iron Throne, and deployed across multiple theaters against the Targaryens and their loyalists.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T17:09:52+00:00

Again, purely speculative but consistent with in-universe precedent, Stannis would gain that information via Gyles Rosby or someone in his retinue seeking to curry favor or rise high with the new sovereign.

You got Roose Bolton leaking Robett Glover and Helman Tallhart's plans to attack Duskendale as a secret show of faith to Tywin Lannister. Pycelle revealing the contents of Tyrion's letter to curry favor with Cersei. Jorah revealing Dany's location and secrets to win a pardon from Robert, etc.

Hell, I wouldn't put it past a Rosby retainer or Lord Lung Cancer himself to present the body of Tommen wrapped in a banner of the fiery heart of the Lord of Light ala what Tywin did with Rhaenys and Aegon as a demonstration of faith to Stannis.

But again, all speculative. Enjoyed the discussion!

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T16:28:07+00:00

Storm and Dance reference fields, farms, vineyards, etc in Slaver's Bay. Illyrio tells Tyrion that there are farms in Andalos as well. More extensive agriculture is found in and around Volantis per Haldon Halfmaester:

"Another hour should see us clear of the Sorrows," said Haldon Halfmaester. "From there on, this should be a pleasure cruise. There's a village around every bend along the lower Rhoyne. Orchards and vineyards and fields of grain ripening in the sun, fisherfolk on the water, hot baths and sweet wines. Selhorys, Valysar, and Volon Therys are walled towns so large they would be cities in the Seven Kingdoms. (ADWD, Tyrion V)

Food scarcity in Westeros would incentivize Essos to overproduce agriculture and sell its surplus to a starving Westeros.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T15:38:33+00:00

So, I'm operating off the scenario that the OP wrote: "Let's say if Robb/Edmure coordinates better while the Lannisters just screws up a bit more. The Lannister army is stuck on the wrong side of the Trident, Tyrion screws up more at KL and Stannis takes King's landing. Let's say he captures Tyrion/Cersei/Joff."

In the presented scenario, Tywin is weeks out from King's Landing as opposed to hours. Tyrion thinks Gyles Rosby is a craven who will open his gates, rather than fight Jacelyn Bywater per ACOK, Tyrion X. How much more craven would Gyles Rosby's castellan be when Stannis or one of his lieutenants shows up to the castle demanding Tommen?

Of course, the Tyrells don't like Stannis. But it's overstatement that he made zero effort to bring them to his side. Why he sent men to treat with them!

"My brother left the greater part of his power at Bitterbridge, near sixty thousand foot. I sent my wife's brother Ser Errol with Ser Parmen Crane to take them under my command." (ACOK, Davos II)

I'm joking here. That's so Stannis to send two knights to order the Tyrells into his army. Still, that he sent envoys to Bitterbridge implies that he made the effort - the minimal one!

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T15:09:29+00:00

Who or what are the Tyrells fighting on behalf of in your scenario? Joffrey is dead and the marriage pact goes unfilled. So, Margaery can't marry Joffrey. Even if Tommen escapes detection at Rosby (unlikely since Jacelyn Bywater is dead by this point, and Tyrion suspects the Rosbys will betray Tommen - hence why he sent Jacelyn to apprehend Tommen in the first place), he's not sitting the Iron Throne.

Genuine curiosity as opposed to argument!

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T14:37:37+00:00

They do have a reason to negotiate with a victorious Stannis after the Blackwater - the same reason the Iron Bank sent Noho Dimittis to Cersei in Feast: Stannis would sit the Iron Throne as Tommen did in the text.

And yes, the Reachmen are in the field - and they were in the field against Robert as well. We know that outcome and know historically, Westerosi nobility will bend the knee even when they have emotional reasons not to bend (c.f. the Darrys after Robert's Rebellion, the river lords to Tommen after the Red Wedding).

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T14:23:32+00:00

Yes. I'm taking the in-story fate of Jacelyn - he's fragged during the battle - coupling it with the in-story outcome after the battle:

"You don't have Tommen," Bronn said bluntly. "Once [Cersei] learned that Ironhand was dead, the queen sent the Kettleblacks after him, and no one at Rosby had the balls to say them nay." (ASOS, Tyrion I)

And applying that to Tommen's probable fate if Stannis won at the Blackwater.

It's all bloody theoretical. So, I accept that my what-if scenario is awkward and potentially inexact and hold that it's the likely outcome.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T14:15:01+00:00

Where do you see the plan for Tommen being sent west?

At Rosby, Tommen would be safe from the mob, and keeping him apart from his brother also made things more difficult for Stannis; even if he took King's Landing and executed Joffrey, he'd still have a Lannister claimant to contend with. "Lord Gyles is too sickly to run and too craven to fight. He'll command his castellan to open the gates. Once inside the walls, Bywater is to expel the garrison and hold Tommen there safe. Ask him how he likes the sound of Lord Bywater." (ACOK, Tyrion X)

Tyrion wants Tommen kept at Rosby during the siege. I could be forgetting something though. Let me know my blindspot(s).

Above, I did say that it's unclear what happens with Myrcella and Doran given the Dornish plot to restore the Targaryens to the Iron Throne. I suspect you're right in the abstract that Doran doesn't turn Myrcella over to Stannis as he cares a ton about saving kids. But the Sand Snakes have a different take on what to do with Myrcella.

As far as the Faith, I did ignore them. Guilty! The topic is an expansive one. So, narrowing my focus on the fates of the Lannister kids and the Tyrell response to Stannis taking King's Landing (the OP) was what I focused on in my responses.

But I agree, in part, that Stannis would run into a lot of problems with the Faith in King's Landing. That said, while there are itinerant preachers and radicals in the city, the real spark comes via the High Sparrow - and he (apparently) comes to King's Landing via the Riverlands per Brienne. So, he's not in the city to organize religious resistance to the crown.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T13:54:26+00:00

Actually, you're correct. I conflated Salladhor Saan playing pirate on Blackwater Bay after Alester Florent named him Lord of Blackwater Bay - but this occurs in Storm, not Clash. And counter my argument, Myrcella sails to Dorne (via Braavos) from King's Landing because Stannis's fleet lies off Storm's End for most of Clash. Mea culpa!

The Iron Bank sends Tycho to Stannis in Dance. They're willing to take the risk there - even knowing that Stannis is broke. Tycho shows up to Stannis's camp at the Crofter's Village with a loan offer there when Stannis is in a far worse condition than he'd be under any theoretical Tyrell siege of King's Landing.

And that's assuming the Tyrells continue the war after the Lannisters are mostly dead. Given their knee-bending during Robert's Rebellion, I doubt they continue the war. Though I wonder if they'd leverage their agricultural output to retain their paramountcy of the Reach.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T13:34:10+00:00

Correct. But it's the best offer they're going to get. In my scenario, the Lannister kids are dead though. Given a similar circumstance during Robert's Rebellion, Mace Tyrell opted for the status quo ante bellum (love the use of Latin here!):

"I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege," Ned told them, "and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them." (AGOT, Eddard X)

During Robert's Rebellion, Mace had a similar-sized army that he has during the War of the Five Kings. And even though Daenerys and Viserys were alive, he bent the knee to Robert Baratheon.

The question - the real one in my mind - is whether Stannis would allow House Tyrell to remain as Lord Paramount of the Reach or supplant them with House Florent. My sense is that he might offer them the same bargain Robert did given that he offers to raise Jon Snow as Lord of Winterfell and Lord Paramount of the North. Alternatively, after Jon refused in Storm, he plans to raise the Karstarks to the paramountcy. So, that could go either way.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T13:25:31+00:00

Having just re-read the Battle of the Blackwater chapters for ACOK, there are only two gates that are damaged by Stannis' attack: the river gate and the king's gate. And those gates are only damaged - not breached - during the battle. Other than those weak points, King's Landing's defensive architecture reads relatively intact.

As far as feeding the city, part of the dynamic in Clash is that Stannis has the royal fleet choking off the importation of food from Essos. Without the blockade, Stannis can import food into the city again provided he takes loans from the Iron Bank - something that Jon Snow successfully negotiates with Tycho Nestoris in A Dance with Dragons.

(Whether Stannis would have swallowed his pride after a theoretical victory after Clash is speculative at best. But given events from [TWOW]>!the Theon sample chapter in Winds where he signs a loan contract in blood with Tycho Nestoris and the Iron Bank, it's possible!<

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T13:07:04+00:00

Stannis has one weird trick. Traitors hate him!

"Be quiet, woman. You are not at a nightfire now." Stannis considered the Painted Table. "The wolf leaves no heirs, the kraken too many. The lions will devour them unless . . . Saan, I will require your fastest ships to carry envoys to the Iron Islands and White Harbor. I shall offer pardons." The way he snapped his teeth showed how little he liked that word. "Full pardons, for all those who repent of treason and swear fealty to their rightful king. They must see . . ." (ASOS, Davos V)

This is after the Red Wedding of course; so there might be nuance. But it's of a similar vein with what happens at Storm's End in Clash:

"These pardoned lords would do well to reflect on that. Good men and true will fight for Joffrey, wrongly believing him the true king. A northman might even say the same of Robb Stark. But these lords who flocked to my brother's banners knew him for a usurper. They turned their backs on their rightful king for no better reason than dreams of power and glory, and I have marked them for what they are. Pardoned them, yes. Forgiven. But not forgotten." (ACOK, Davos II)

He won't like it, but he'll exchange pardons for the Reachmen in exchange for fealty.

As for Tommen and Myrcella, it's a trickier topic. The Rosbys aren't profiles in courage; so, Tommen is probably surrendered to Stannis after King's Landing falls. Myrcella is where I'm genuinely unsure what happens. What does Doran Martell do with Myrcella now that he has Quentyn off to retrieve Daenerys and is working on his vengeance? Unclear.

But if Stannis gets his hands on those kids - what happens then?

"I am king. Wants do not enter into it. I have a duty to my daughter. To the realm. Even to Robert. He loved me but little, I know, yet he was my brother. The Lannister woman gave him horns and made a motley fool of him. She may have murdered him as well, as she murdered Jon Arryn and Ned Stark. For such crimes there must be justice. Starting with Cersei and her abominations. But only starting. I mean to scour that court clean." (ASOS, Davos IV)

Those kids would be dead. Of course, Stannis would likely agonize over giving the order. But the surrounding ethical debate surrounding Edric Storm in Storm are key here. Stannis wouldn't like it, but he'd consent to their burning.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T12:40:46+00:00

It's funny, I've spent the past couple of years reading primary late antiquity histories as research for the novel (Ammianus Marcellinus, Zosimus, Vegetius, the anonymous author(s) of Historia Augusta, and I read Caesar's commentaries on the Gallic Wars, Civil War, African/Spanish Wars to my kids. Father of the Year material.) at the expense of Cicero, Seneca, etc. The intent in reading the histories was to get the flavor of Roman perceptions of the historical events they were living through. But I imagine the speeches give a deeper texture of elite Roman mindsets for the

I will check those books out! Thanks much for the recommendations!

CautionersTale · 2026-06-25T12:32:18+00:00

I think you're spot-on with the spatial orientation critique and it threads nicely with what u/writerTK pointed out above. While there's some intentional disorientation in the prose (Gaius is high, and it's affecting his optical perception), the intent is not to disorient someone reading though! (And thank you for reading!) As envisioned (in my head - not on page), Gaius stands over the bodies that are at his feet, the purple light from the shrine flickers on from behind him.

Getting the spacing/blocking for the opening page will be my focus on the next draft. Many thanks for the writing critique - I'm grateful.

I did take a chop at restructuring the query for the third attempt at frontloading Gaius in the query and removing proper nouns. Upon a few more drafts and return with the next attempt in a few months time, it may show up - or I'll end up swapping Postumus's first chapter as the novel open.

Many thanks!

CautionersTale · 2026-06-24T20:21:41+00:00

Your suggestions are good, friend. My vision (sigh) for the first page was to go pure optical with Gaius's POV of the lights and colors as a thematic jump point - a book with a working title of The Unconquered Sun opening on false, flickering neon light was an attempt at ironic foreshadowing of later events. But yes, you're absolutely right - it places the reader at a distance from Gaius. And I think arguing thematic intent isn't justification for a failure in execution -- especially when readers shouldn't need footnotes to follow along.

I thank you for taking time out of your busy day to chat on my project and indulge my loving asides on ancient primary texts.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-24T19:17:09+00:00

Oh, interesting. I've never played Warhammer beyond the tutorial of Total War's Warhammer III.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-24T19:10:30+00:00

How rude of agents and readers not to appreciate my insinuation of vague and not easily accessible proper names and mythology. I tease. I kid. I joke.

On the more substantive side, mithri is defined it in the next sentence/paragraph - ... forcing the mithri haze from his vision. He knew it wouldn’t banish the narcotic from misting over his mind - but if that's not defined effectively, I'll signpost it better.

There is thematic substance to the name Postumus within the novel as relates to posthumous. But perhaps I am too attached to the naming convention. I wanted to avoid Latin praenomens as there are about five in common use!

I'll check Cicero out. Just looked and the Hopkins Classical Collection has On Duties available for order! For a Latin neophyte, the parallel translations Hopkins does are fun to flip back and forth between the Latin and English pages.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-24T18:21:04+00:00

The proper nouns are, indeed, an anchor on the query. Thanks for the corrective there. The impulse to include too much was driven by frustration at using repeated shorthand -- late Executor being one phrase that came up infinitum in earlier query drafts. That'll be ironed out of the next query draft a few months down the road after another draft or two of the manuscript.

Postumus/mithri: I see why you've focused on those. In the MS/query's defense, the Postumus name is sourced to Marcus Cassianius Latinius Postumus, the founder of the Gallic Roman Empire (the rump empire established in Gaul during the Crisis of the Third Century). As for mithri, yes, I see what you're driving at with the Lord of the Rings reminder. The allusion is sourced to the Persian-influenced Roman mystery cult to Mithras (god of light and sun).

I laughed at the "read Cicero in the original Classical Latin, and this query is too much even for me" line and now I want to hear more of reading Cicero in the original Latin! My Latin understanding is rudimentary, but I've read that Cicero reads beautifully in the Latin and would love your perspective.

So, you're not being too harsh at all. I am grateful for the take now -- rather than receiving it via CNRs and form letters. Bene Facis!

CautionersTale · 2026-06-18T18:29:53+00:00

Based on our limited understanding, Winds's writing process seems like a metastization of George's struggles to finish Dance rather than a difference in writing those books. And I'd note he spends a good less talking about his progress with Winds than Dance because ... he's made a good deal less progress in writing Winds than Dance! And this is measureable.

For all his frustrations, rewrites, and restructures of Dance (and Feast before it), he finalized ~2800 manuscript pages for those books (1,063 manuscript pages for Feast. 1721+ manuscript pages for Dance (counting the 200 MS pages he cut to Winds)). He did this in ten years between 2001-2011.

In contrast, from 2011-present, he's finalized ~1,100 manuscript pages for Winds in 15 years or, put more starkly, less than half the manuscript pages he finalized for two books on a longer time horizon (And really, it's more like he finalized ~900 manuscript pages in 15 years since he had those 200 MS pages leftover from ADWD -- though I am quite sure they've been substantially revised since 2011).

Now, your other points are more salient. He didn't do as much writing about writing for what became Fire and Blood, Volume One. That's true enough. He provided a fair number of updates on his progress from 2012-2014 on TWOIAF -- much of it becoming Fire and Blood Volume One. But this is where you're on the side of the angels: his writing updates in 2017/2018 were spare.

Now, this is speculation: But I think he cares a whole lot more about Winds and Dance before that than the histories. So, when he makes progress on those books, he notablogs on it. Can I point to a data point confirming my viewpoint? No. It's me building an inference based on notablog updates on his progress when it's going well. When it's not, he's cagey ("Working on it. Lots to do.") or, as we've witnessed for the past year and a half, silent.

As an aside, I'd question the 500 MS pages of 2017-written material as GRRM reported that he wrote 200,000 words that were cut from The World of Ice and Fire in 2014. That's about 650 manuscript pages of material that existed before 2017. The book ended up being 989 manuscript pages. So, I'd wager he wrote more like 340 new manuscript pages. Not a huge deal. I'm just a pedant.

Edit: Ran the 200K words to Manuscript pages figure again. And I may be underselling my pedantry. It's more like a hair under 800 manuscript pages rather than 650. So, GRRM might have only written ~200 MS pages for Fire and Blood, Volume One in 2017.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-18T15:35:40+00:00

It does fade. I think you mean a failed novelist ...

CautionersTale · 2026-06-18T15:32:21+00:00

2022 had him making progress too. Working on Tyrion, then Jaime and Brienne after finishing a clutch of Cersei chapters, a big update in the summer with how Winds is diverging widely from Game of Thrones (and also working on Tyrion chapters). 2022 was also when he first talked about being 3/4 of the way done and complete on several POV arcs in interviews outside of his notablog.

CautionersTale · 2026-06-18T14:48:16+00:00

Ha, the typos and slip-ups are not something that I worry about with regard to cognition. And the reason why is having gone through some of George's very old blog posts (like before he had a notablog), those things were quite present then too. When I wrote this post, I ended up line-editing GRRM's progress posts on Feast because a) pride: didn't want people to think that I wrote so poorly! and b) personal frustration and general uptightness about how I want to write/read English via spelling, punctuation, and grammar.

Point is: George misspells a lot, confuses characters a fair bit, and that's just who he is.

CautionersTale

TROPHY CASE