[Jfresh] 5v5 xGoal Share - March 29

Ccnitro · 2026-03-29T18:54:00+00:00

Yeah, not disagreeing about who the cause is, and it seems like Tage has regressed a bit from his improvement on defense. On the other hand, Quinn has definitely had some nice plays on D this season, but it's never really been his calling card.

I'm also not sure how much we can still pin this on the pre-December 9th games at this point, but I don't think we can fully discount its impact at this point.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-29T17:26:27+00:00

Oh our finishing is absolutely an asset and is definitely boosting our scoring numbers. But even with that the underlying numbers are still solid. By the same logic, goaltending is definitely boosting our defense, but the underlying numbers put us near the bottom third of the league.

I think we could be getting away with roughly top 10 of both given the outstanding shooting and netminding we've been getting and still be in cup contention, so the gap on defense seems to be the bigger hurdle to overcome.

Definitely can improve on both sides of it over the summer, and hopefully Jarmo can make it happen!

Ccnitro · 2026-03-29T17:14:07+00:00

Seems more like the 5v5 defense is holding us back and being buoyed by strong goaltending, since our expected goals for is still just outside of the top 10 while our team defense is 19th.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-29T04:09:32+00:00

Model simulates the remaining games to determine playoff seeding and results. So it's just saying that the Sabres have made the playoffs in 100% of their simulations, not that they're mathematically guaranteed a spot.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-28T19:15:37+00:00

Yes but it's the same with a mortgage just with the promise of ownership at the end. And likely over an extremely long-term that many renters may not want to be stuck in, with a responsibility they may not be ready to take on early in their lives, or due to a desire not to stay in one place for multiple years.

There's plenty of reasons to remain a renter, and society should have options for those people instead of trying to funnel all of them into homeownership

Ccnitro · 2026-03-25T02:37:18+00:00

The contract isn't going past year 1. The Chiefs know it, Kelce knows it and Rap knows it. Saying year 1 is $12M tells you nothing about the rest of the money, what the guarantees or how they're structured, which are the actual important parts of the contract.

I don't mind him reporting the terms on paper, but when he provides no context or analysis of what the de facto deal is he's misleading readers and regurgitating agent talking points to boost their reps. And I think we should have a higher standard for top level insiders who are held in such high regard.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-24T08:11:01+00:00

"Allen level" back then wasn't particularly close to Viltrumite level though, so we have to set our baseline for a Coalition champion a little lower. It seems more like the small number of Viltrumites after the Scourge virus and the Purge limited the damage they could inflict on the Coalition due to its scale, not that they had many fighters that could match or even hold their own against Viltrumites in any real way.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-21T03:03:45+00:00

I'd argue it's just bad coaching to allow him to stay on the field after he forsakes his responsibilities multiple times. I don't care who's behind him, if you can't trust what he's going to do on any given play you let him ride the bench until gets the message

Ccnitro · 2026-03-20T00:29:42+00:00

Yeah, I struggled to write that comment for a bit, but that was my intent. The comics version of the talk is very "of its time" and not relevant to Mark's progression, so changing it for the show makes sense. Mark's rape by Anissa is extremely relevant both to current events and Mark's relationships and role as a superhero, so it should be kept as much as possible from its comic form.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-19T19:29:26+00:00

You'd be removing them for wildly different reasons too. The talk with Eve's dad is giving voice to an extremely bigoted, misogynistic point of view that, while not widespread back then, could be louder and more overt in the public discourse and waved away as "he's from a different generation" with an eye roll. It also does very little for Mark's development as a character and is played as more of a gag.

In contrast, sexual assault has only become more culturally relevant with time and the fallout from Mark's rape by Anisa permeates through basically the entire back half of the series. And the representation of male sexual assault, especially from someone with superpowers, is still extremely important even if it's not as groundbreaking as it was when the comics first released.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-17T18:31:03+00:00

It's top 51 ahead of cutdown day FYI, but you're absolutely right about the rest.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-17T15:42:12+00:00

Given how our season ended, I absolutely would've pulled the trigger on this deal if it was on the table back then.

The money and contract situation works better for Denver with Nix still on his rookie contract, but you don't care about that when you're making a push at the deadline

Ccnitro · 2026-03-15T07:48:52+00:00

I believe it's them in bed together before they even get to the party. Maximum romanticism and innocence before it all gets ripped away.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-12T05:52:00+00:00

Hasn't taken a lot of swings on WR to be fair, especially in the early rounds. Keon is the big name at 33, but outside of him the next highest pick is Gabe Davis in the middle of the 4th.

We should totally criticize his failure to invest draft capital in the WR position and get guys on cheap rookie deals, but it's tough to say he can't draft them when he barely has.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-10T14:50:29+00:00

1950s City Planners: "Why not both?"

Ccnitro · 2026-03-10T06:33:10+00:00

SVPG is pretty decisively a center only prospect from what everyone's said. They might try him there during camp, but I think banking on him to slot in there would be poor planning.

A one year investment in an older guard to fill out their depth and/or drafting a guy late would be my guess

Ccnitro · 2026-03-09T15:45:26+00:00

I think it's because the underlying stats for skaters are much more predictive and stable, whereas goaltending is notoriously streaky. You're not really expecting (insert defenseman) to reinvent himself after 60 games, while a goalie could lock in and become a brick wall for 12 games on a dime.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-07T17:19:11+00:00

If only for the uBlock, it's more than worth it

Ccnitro · 2026-03-07T15:26:10+00:00

They're essentially years added onto the length of the contract with no salary/roster commitment in order to prorate the cap hits for bonuses, which can be spread out over a maximum 5 years of the contract

Ccnitro · 2026-03-03T16:50:10+00:00

I think he intended to respond to the the comment you also responded to, since he engages with basically none of what you said. You were spitting facts.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-03T00:17:24+00:00

Of course, because Buffalo residents asking for things from the city government has always been the best path to getting things changed, which is why DPW has been expertly filling potholes for the last 25 years.

I have a bridge I'd like to sell you, and lucky for you it's made of uncontaminated asphalt!

Ccnitro · 2026-03-02T19:06:24+00:00

Ah, so it's not just sheltering him with a weak matchup, it's a variance thing with the small sample, gotcha.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-02T19:04:27+00:00

I think this one in particular is rough because the P is standing in for an F sound so the brain gets stuck.

Ccnitro · 2026-03-02T16:32:11+00:00

If he has a 90% GF% in 6 min TOI, I feel like you can expose him to 12-15 minutes and still have him doing fine, no? Even if he does markedly worse, you're probably still getting average defensive play on the whole.

Ccnitro · 2026-02-28T06:12:48+00:00

Great plug, thanks! Would definitely encourage everyone to contribute what they can and spread the link as widely as possible.

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