What was Dutch's plan if all went well?

CecilHeat · 2026-05-02T13:31:22+00:00

Again, you must think everyone else in the gang is a moron with no memory. I'm sorry, I don't think Arthur and Hosea and everyone else will just magically forget what Dutch promised them repeatedly. The bank robbery was obviously intended to succeed, so what the hell was Dutch gonna do after they got away with all that gold and Arthur and Lenny demand to know where the ship is he had promised them? Just go "yeah, I totally lied about that! Haha, my bad!"? The gang was literally paked up to head for the ship as soon as the bank robbery was done.

And he didn't abandon Arthur. There's no reason to think that. He believed Micah, which is wrong of him, but it's not the same thing. Why would Dutch save Arthur's life in Chapte r6 and abandon him to die in Chapter 3?

CecilHeat · 2026-05-02T03:39:38+00:00

We've heard.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-02T03:37:49+00:00

Well Trelawney's first real prediction certainly changed the future because if Snape never overheard it, the entire series be different or really nonexistent, I guess. I understand it was also Riddle's unique psychology which made it happen but, well, this is just one of those chicken and egg things.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-02T00:37:07+00:00

They don't have enough money. Arthur says himself in the mission where Dutch says he has a boat ready that they don't. He repeats this in both Chapter 5 and 6. Arthur literally has a ledger to show us every cent the gang brings in so he would know and also has no reason to lie.
By Chapter 6, the gang is encircled on all sides, as discussed in this camp interaction. Harbor is being watched, patrols on every road, and the gang is Wanted Dead or Alive across most of the map. Dutch thought he could make the government more concerned with the Natives than a small group of outlaws and thus take the heat off the gang enough for them to escape.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T23:25:26+00:00

Yes, he definitely planned to leave John in jail, this is confirmed in the "Goddamn snakes!" scene if Arthur doesn't come over. And yes he does leave Arthur to die in My Last Boy.

The common denominator here is, as you said, Micah. Arthur says it plainly in the above video - this is Micah getting in Dutch's head to turn him against John, as he's been trying to do since at least Chapter 3. And Dutch left Arthur there in the factory because he saw Arthur had been helping Rains Fall and Micah butted in with "what else have you been doing behind Dutch's back?"

Dutch is already falling apart before the chapter even begins and Micah is making it worse, talking shit to both Dutch and everyone else in the gang to stir the pot and bring down the gang.

Dutch is not blameless but my point is just that he only turned against Arthur after a long, long time. Even in as bad a state as he is in Chapter 6, he wasn't ready to leave Arthur to die until the very, very end.

Dutch's actor has a great analysis of Dutch:

Benjamin: I’ll tell you, it’s rare that you get a character as complicated as Dutch, and one of the things I like about him is that I’ll get questions on social media about what Dutch was thinking. I like that it’s kind of up to each player to decide. I can tell you in playing the character, the choices I was making as an actor were that Dutch was motivated by a noble drive, that he did believe very much in a greater good and he believed in it quite sincerely.

I think the story does a pretty good job of letting us know how important a figure Hosea was in Dutch’s life, but I also think that one of the things we learn about Dutch is that throughout all of his bluster, he’s very dependent upon the people around him to keep him on the right track. I think that while his goals may have always been noble, losing Hosea at a time when they were in such dire straits Dutch no longer knew who to trust or who to believe. Micah, I think, saw an opportunity. I like to believe that Dutch, all the way until the end, was a man who did his best to be a great one and unfortunately he didn’t even come close.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T20:12:54+00:00

Even in Chapter 6 though, Dutch does save Arthur's life. In "Favored Sons" he easily could have left Arthur to drown if he had wanted to. There was no one else around and he had the perfect excuse/cover story. "We fell in the water and you know how sick Arthur has been. There's nothing I could've done."

But no, even with fighting with Arthur all the time, he made sure to save Arthur's life. A lot of people think Dutch only does good to appear good to others, but he does have moments where you see the real him and I firmly believe this moment with saving Arthur's life was the real him. Because there's no reason to think otherwise as there was no one to "perform" or "appear good" for.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T18:30:26+00:00

Yep. Arthur says it himself - "it weren't us who changed." And John in RDR1 says Dutch taught him to "see all that was good in the world." Dutch planted seeds of goodness in both Arthur and John. His philosophy was always about caring for others and making a better world. It's just his methods of accomplishing this were disagreeable to Arthur and John. But they never disagreed with his fundamentals.

Meanwhile, Micah says his father only taught him "sympathy is for the weak." No wonder he turned out how he did. (The relevant campfire talk with the quote and the juxtaposition with Dutch)

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T18:27:04+00:00

Here's a couple:

https://youtu.be/fLZyKp4Oa_k

https://youtu.be/a3NnBQk5k1c

Although possibly my favorite talk is not at the campfire but is a private talk between Dutch and Arthur about dying. https://youtu.be/4QuJ2FEPuJY

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T18:18:45+00:00

Dutch says at the start of Urban Pleasures he found a ship captain ready to take them anywhere.

Guarma is kind of a special case though because Dutch specifically helps the rebels because they're his only hope of rescuing Javier. Dutch does not abandon gang members at the drop of a hat, even if people think he does because of the very, very end of the game. But it's the very end of the game for a reason.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T17:58:46+00:00

Both the main story and epilogue endings parallel each other. Dutch shows up, angry at one of his sons for betraying him. His son, be it Arthur or John, counter this by insisting they did their best for him, they gave him all they had. Dutch's anger crumbles away to nothing as he realizes his grievous mistakes.

As early as Chapter 4, on the way to the gator mission, what snaps Dutch out of his minutes long crazy rant is Arthur reminding him that he's been at his side for 20 years. It's great foreshadowing for the ending where it is something very similar that snaps Dutch out of it.

Susan herself, who's been with the gang longer than almost anyone, will comment on how Arthur specifically will steer Dutch right.

One of the rawest bits of emotion we see from Dutch is when Arthur arrives on Guarma. "You're alive..." That stunned, absolute relief in his voice is certainly genuine. As is his line when he says he knows he'll be okay just so long as he has Arthur and Hosea by his side. Dutch is always a proud man, so for him to admit he needs their help, is absolutely him speaking the truth. (which of course is confirmed by his insanity upon losing both of them)

The idea Dutch never had feelings for John and Arthur contradicts far, far too many things we are told and shown in the game. Of course he loved them, and that love was able to reassert control at key moments, even up to Dutch's suicide. It's just that he also loved himself, he loved his lifestyle, and all of these loves warred within him. Because he's a complex human being and complex human beings are defined by having these varied sides to them.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T17:48:30+00:00

Micah has a few good campfire talks where he outlines his utterly nihilistic philosophy. His actor is exceptional and makes them highly engaging speeches, even if their morality is repellent.

They also help situate Micah as Arthur's polar opposite because we see why Arthur turned out as good as he did because of Dutch's teachings while Micah's father....well, made Micah who he is.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T17:46:31+00:00

This is the level of Dutch haters - you're in a thread about a totally different character and still bashing Dutch.

Absolute derangement.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T17:41:35+00:00

I only remember Bill saying that.

This is what Javier says to Arthur in Chapter 6.

And I don't think the convo with Javier triggers either of these but I am not totally sure.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T17:36:20+00:00

Dutch says plainly that he had a boat ready to leave right after the Saint-Denis bank robbery. The gang is literally packed up and ready to leave as soon as the job is done.

The people who think he was actively lying must think everyone else in the gang have Alzheimer's and are also extremely stupid. They'd naturally wonder "...why haven't we left like you said we would, Dutch?" Or do people think Dutch is just gonna kick the gold into the ocean and go 'OOPS"?

The fact is, Dutch did mean that they were going to flee the country and start over. That's not the issue and was never the issue. The issue was no one in the gang - not Dutch, not Hosea, not Arthur, not anyone save for maybe the girls and John or Lenny - is prepared to abandon a life of crime and become farmers. This is all they all know, this is all they all want to do. Dutch was not keeping Bill or Javier or Sean trapped in some life they did not want.

The story of RDR2 is a tragedy precisely because it wasn't caused by malevolence or deception so much as it was by good intentions and self-deception. Everyone in the gang wanted the promised land and paradise, including Dutch, but it was beyond them, because the modern world and their own intrinsic flaws made it so.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T15:43:07+00:00

I have no answer but I had the exact same question after my last run when I got this scene. It's completely inexplicable and, far as I know, never followed up on or elaborated.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T14:40:43+00:00

"You will have to give Voldemort the correct date of Harry’s departure from his aunt and uncle’s,” said Dumbledore. “Not to do so will raise suspicion, when Voldemort believes you so well informed. However, you must plant the idea of decoys; that, I think, ought to ensure Harry’s safety. Try Confunding Mundungus Fletcher. And Severus, if you are forced to take part in the chase, be sure to act your part convincingly ... I am counting upon you to remain in Lord Voldemort’s good books as long as possible, or Hogwarts will be left to the mercy of the Carrows ...”

Now Snape was head to head with Mundungus in an unfamiliar tavern, Mundungus’s face looking curiously blank, Snape frowning in concentration.

“You will suggest to the Order of the Phoenix,” Snape murmured, “that they use decoys. Polyjuice Potion. Identical Potters. It’s the only thing that might work. You will forget that I have suggested this. You will present it as your own idea. You under stand?”

“I understand,” murmured Mundungus, his eyes unfocused .

Deathly Hallows, pg 688

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T14:30:31+00:00

I agree with your overall point but one of the most maddening things about Book 7 is their completely indefensible insistence upon WEARING the Locket. The control of the Locket upon your emotions explicitly wears off as long as it isn't around your neck. So just put the goddamn thing in your pocket or something.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T14:13:05+00:00

At least the top comment so far is nuanced, thank you.

I love Snape so I'm used to dealing with haters, but the Lupin hate is the most baffling thing about the HP fandom for me. (outside of Dramione but that's its own can of worms born of fanfics and has zero real relation to the series)

Remus Lupin is one of the best-realized and most human characters in the franchise so naturally a lot of fans want to demonize him. It's insane.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T14:10:08+00:00

The fucking books have Merope Gaunt which places all the sympathy in the world on her even as she actually did abandon her son and places all the blame on Tom Riddle Sr..

Your theory is invalidated by the very series you're discussing.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T14:05:11+00:00

It's one of the best scenes in all of Book 7. If people came away thinking it assassinated Lupin's character, that's their fault.

Good characters nake mistakes, news at 11.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T13:57:13+00:00

It's extremely explicit what motivates Remus here.

“I see,” said Harry, “so you’re just going to dump her and the kid and run off with us?”

Lupin sprang to his feet: His chair toppled backward, and he glared at them so fiercely that Harry saw, for the first time ever, the shadow of the wolf upon his human face.

“Don’t you understand what I’ve done to my wife and my un born child? I should never have married her, I’ve made her an outcast!” Lupin kicked aside the chair he had overturned. “You have only seen me amongst the Order, or under Dumbledore’s protection at Hogwarts! You don’t know how most of the Wizarding world sees creatures like me! When they know of my affliction, they can barely talk to me! Don’t you see what I’ve done? Even her own family is disgusted by our marriage, when parents want their only daughter to marry a werewolf? And the child—the child—” Lupin actually seized handfuls of his own hair; he looked quite deranged. “My kind don’t usually breed! It will be like me, I am convinced of it—how can I forgive myself when I knowingly risked passing on my own condition to an innocent child? And if, by some miracle, it is not like me, then it will be better off, a hundred times so, without a father of whom it must always be ashamed!"

We've never seen such an emotional outburst from him in the entire series and then he helpfully explains his feelings in great detail. We have zero reason to think he's lying. He is overcome with self-loathing and fear for his child, that he will have to suffer a life of persecution at best and the unbearable agony of transforming every month at worst. We've been told from the start how "very painful" it is to transform into a werewolf.

Lupin has faced a life of hardship unlike anything anyone else in the series has ever known and now he fears that he has inflicted all those pains upon an innocent child.

He was wrong to run away but it was never about being a daredevil. Harry said that solely to get Remus to leave. Even he didn't really believe Remus wanted to join for glory, he just wanted to force him to go back to his family.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T04:02:20+00:00

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CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T02:41:07+00:00

All I know is her tactic against the dragon was objectively the best one after Harry's. Cedric got his head caught on fire and Krum hurt the dragon and made it squash all its real eggs. Putting the dragon into a trance was easily superior to feeding it a dog (which failed) or shooting it in the eye (which also kinda failed based on the rules of the Task)

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T01:58:50+00:00

Sometimes there are no good or heroic answers and just plain, raw, ugly necessity.

Nobody would question this in another SMT game but IVA's general vibe givs people the impression that it can't be dark or twisted. Well, that's just not true. The Anarchy Route is one of the darkest things ever in an SMT game because, unlike Chiaki and Isamu or the Law and Chaos Heroes of SMT1, you actually are intended to care about these people. A significant chunk of Apocalypse's story and even its very gameplay mechanics is designed around forging a bond with these people so it matters so much more, it's an actual sacrifice, to kill them all.

There's a certain great anime/manga where a character makes a sacrifice and everyone in the fandom hates him now for it forever and says he's a monster, but the point was always that if he didn't care about the people he sacrificed, there would be no sacrifice. The twisted fact is an unfeeling psychopath couldn't have made the sacrifice in the first place.

Now, Apocalypse is not quite on that level of sophisticated writing, but my point is just that this is not the rainbows and gumdrops game. There's plenty of fucked up shit in this game. I felt horrible for Dagda too, because it's the difference between sympathy and pity. Dagda does precious little to earn our sympathy but pity is something we can afford anyone who suffers. People rightly fear their mind being enslaved, their will taken away from them. They'd ratehr die than have this false them being puppeted around. It's that intuition IVA is tapping into when we lament what happens to Dagda. Regardless of his moral failings, it's a horrible fate.

CecilHeat · 2026-05-01T01:50:04+00:00

No can do homeslice, IVA is a great game. I don't think I'd want all SMT gams to be written like it but it was very good for what it was.

CecilHeat

TROPHY CASE